Cardinals vs. Seahawks Week 11 Predictions, Odds, Preview

T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in CO

• November 18, 2020
• By Matt Blunt
• VegasInsider.com

The funny thing about streaks in betting, is that if I told you a football team was on a 7-0 against the spread run in a specific spot, plenty of bettors would be more inclined to make a play on that team. But if I told you a specific individual bettor that was on a 7-0 ATS run, the perspective would flip to looking to fade with losses likely coming.

Why is that?

Probably best to leave that question unanswered for now, as it's been a 7-0 ATS run for these prime-time plays I've been putting up, dating back to the Tampa/New York Giants game on MNF.

And yet I know there is going to be a loss or two coming soon, and with the great games we've got on tap for TNF, SNF, and MNF in Week 11, I'd take the 'no' on me sweeping a third straight week.

Probably something to keep in mind the next time you see so many streaks getting mentioned everywhere (congrats to QB Kirk Cousins for snapping that 0-9 streak on MNF by the way).

Week 11 begins with this Arizona-Seattle rematch, and both teams are coming off some interesting performances a week ago.

Arizona walked it off thanks to a wild Hail Mary play, while quarterback Russell Wilson has a game where his best Superman cape is in the wash and all that Seattle love from a month ago is just a distant memory right now.

In case you were sleeping in Week 10 of the NFL, the highlight "Murray Magic" currently stands as the top play of the 2020 regular season so far.

ARE YOU KIDDING?!?!?! @K1 @deandrehopkins

??: #BUFvsAZ on CBS
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— NFL (@NFL) November 16, 2020

The Seahawks may be the team that “needs” this win more on Thursday night with how they've looked the past two weeks, but nothing has really changed with this team.

They've got a defense that's in rough shape, and an offense that still converts far too few 3rd downs (39% ranked 26th in NFL) that's run by one of the MVP front-runners. Wilson has an off day and all those flaws get magnified like they did vs the Rams last week.

Can they correct them on a short week against a division rival they know they probably should have beat in the first meeting, and one that's riding high off such an improbable win.

Betting Resources

• Week 11 Matchup: NFC West
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: CenturyLink Field
• Location: Seattle, Washington
• Date: Thursday, Nov. 19, 2020
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX/NFL Network
• Bet Now: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

The Cardinals outlasted the Seahawks, 37-34 in overtime back in Week 7. (AP)

Cardinals-Seahawks Betting Odds

Line Movements

Odds Subject to Change

Cardinals vs. Seahawks Video Picks

2020 Betting Stats

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

Arizona

• Overall: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-6 O/U
• Road: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 0-4 O/U
• Offense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 7)
• Defense PPG: 23.3 (Rank 9)
• Offense YPG: 425.4 (Rank 1)
• Defense YPG: 370.0 (Rank 18)

Seattle

• Overall: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U
• Home: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U
• Offense PPG: 32.2 (Rank 1)
• Defense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 28)
• Offense YPG: 405.9 (Rank 3)
• Defense YPG: 448.3 (Rank 32)

Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total

If you've read pieces I've done in the past on games that were division rematches, you'll know that looking at flipping the results on both the side and total is a place I'll often start. Looking at taking the Seattle side will come a little further down, but in terms of the total, it appears as though the popularity of sharing that opinion is undecided.

Because of the combination of having a brutal defense and Russell Wilson as their QB, Seattle games are always going to get a lot of 'over' respect from the outset when a number comes out.

T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in CO

They've been hit hard to the 'over' early on in past weeks, and a 6-3 O/U record overall for the Seahawks is not ever going to be a deterrent from sticking to that plan.

Thanks to the walk-off win vs Buffalo, Arizona extended their streak of scoring at least 30 points to five straight games, the last three of which have cashed 'over' tickets. The Cardinals scored a TD in every quarter of that first meeting with Seattle, so thinking they'll be able to possibly do the same this time around isn't far fetched at all.

But then you get a total of 57.5 (currently) where a lot of things still have to go right for significant stretches of time for NFL teams. Yes, the first game finished with 71 points, but both defenses were able to make significant adjustments coming out of halftime, with only total points scored in the 3rd and 4th quarters; 10 of which came by Arizona in the final 2.5 minutes.

If that's the type of game we see from them in this rematch – one where it's going to feel like a bit more is at stake within the division etc – you might not get an explosive 30 minute stretch to make up for the points you'd need if a 24-point half was duplicated.

The short week of prep isn't as big of a negative as it can be for other teams on TNF here because both sides have the same season self-scouting film they can use to breakdown and recall since it was just a few weeks ago. What worked and what didn't should click back into place for both teams relatively quickly on Thursday, as these defenses look much better than they have the past two weeks.

It's an 'under' or nothing for the total in the end.

Head-to-Head History

• Oct. 25, 2020 - Arizona 37 vs. Seattle 34, Cardinals +3.5, Over 55.5
• Dec. 22, 2019 - Arizona 27 at Seattle 13, Cardinals +8, Under 51
• Sep. 29, 2019 - Seattle 27 at Arizona 10, Seahawks -5.5, Under 49
• Dec. 30, 2018 - Seattle 27 vs. Arizona 24, Cardinals +14, Over 39.5

Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Handicapping the Side

Flipping the result from the first meeting and backing Seattle here is an interesting proposition. The point spread has already dropped multiple points against the Seahawks since opening, and how sour the market has gone on Wilson these past two weeks does give the sense that Seattle's in a bit of a buy low spot here.

Then on the Arizona side of things, it's always tough to come down from such a high like they had in that Buffalo win and flip the composure back a few days later for another very tough, division, opponent. There are a lot of things working in Seattle's favor situationally.

But then you remember the defense they trot out there, and you think about the notion that if Wilson struggles again this week, a Seattle ATS play has no shot, where an 'under' play in a Seattle loss still does. Far from a ringing endorsement for either side really, and not the greatest way to approach any play, but it's a thought I can't get out of my head when considering backing Seattle.

It would be Seattle or nothing for me though on the side, but maybe now that it's settled in the -3 range, a more reasonable ML price on Seattle is now out there for bettors. You never know with traditional scoring lines these days with XP's missed and two-point conversions gone for and Arizona backers on the closing number last week know all about that.

Do have a tough time seeing Arizona being anywhere near their best on a short week with travel, having already proved they could beat this Seahawks team, and being off how that Buffalo win played out. But in case it's another rough outing for Wilson and that Seahawks offense, I'd prefer to take my chances with the total.

Key Injuries

Arizona

• TE Darrell Daniels: Ankle - Questionable
• S Deionte Thompson: Knee - Questionable
• DE Jordan Phillips: Foot - Questionable
• OL Justin Murray: Hand - Questionable
• DT Leki Fotu: Ankle - Questionable

Seattle

• RB Carlos Hyde: Hamstring - Probable
• WR Tyler Lockett: Knee - Questionable
• G Mike Iupati: Leg - Questionable
• G Jordan Simmons: Calf - Questionable
• C Kyle Fuller: Ankle - Questionable
• RB Travis Homer: Hand - Questionable
• CB Neiko Thorpe: Groin - Questionable
• DE Benson Mayowa: Ankle - Questionable
• RB Chris Carson: Foot - Questionable
• CB Shaquill Griffin: Concussion - Questionable
• C Ethan Pocic: Concussion - Questionable
• DT Bryan Mone: Ankle - Questionable
• CB Quinton Dunbar: Knee - Out

Cardinals vs. Seahawks - Predictions

• Score Prediction: Seattle 28 Arizona 24
• Best Bet: Under 57.5

2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results

Betting Results

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)

• Home-Away: 4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS
• Favorites-Underdogs: 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS
• Over-Under: 5-4