Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Super Bowl 55 Predictions, Odds

Feb. 4, 2021

Kevin Rogers
NFL Expert
Vegasinsider.com

Super Bowl 55 has arrived and the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will meet in the NFL postseason finale on Sunday Feb. 7, 2021 from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

With the help of contributions from our Editorial Staff and Handicappers, we’ll handicap the game with our content pieces and offer up our Best Bets on the Chiefs and Buccaneers.

Let's break down the game...

Odds Breakdown - Chiefs vs. Bucs

Line Movements

• Spread: Chiefs -3
• Money-Line: Kansas City -165 Tampa Bay +145
• Total: 56

Subject to Change

The Super Bowl 55 Betting Update from Micah Roberts has been following this number from the open.

Even though the games is being played in Tampa, the Chiefs have been installed as favorites and that number has held steady.

According to Roberts, the books are hoping that Kansas City will win the game but only by one or two points. If that happens, the books will pull off the double and win both action on the Chiefs laying the points and the Buccaneers on the money-line.

Could that happen?

The odds are certainly against it and the Super Bowl 55 Hot & Not Report by VI expert Matt Blunt provides great data mining on all of the historical spreads in the NFL finale and what happened in those outcomes. There's a great total lean and we'll get that to below in another Super Bowl 55 segment.

Super Bowl point-spreads that have closed at -3 or -3.5 since 2000

• 1974 - Steelers (-3) 16 vs. Vikings 6, Favorite-Under (33)
• 1978 - Steelers (-3.5) 35 vs. Cowboys 31, Favorite-Over(37)
• 1980 - Raiders (+3) 27 vs. Eagles 10, Underdog-Under (37.5)
• 1982 - Redskins (+3) 27 vs. Dolphins 17, Underdog-Over (36.5)
• 1983 - Raiders (+3) 38 vs. Redskins 9, Underdog-Under (48)
• 1984 - 49ers (-3) 38 vs. Dolphins 16, Favorite-Push (54)
• 1987 - Redskins (+3.5) 42 vs. Broncos 10, Underdog-Over (47)
• 2000 - Ravens (-3) 34 vs. Giants 7, Favorite-Over (34)
• 2002 - Buccaneers (+3.5) 48 vs. Raiders 23, Underdog-Over (44)
• 2010 - Packers (-3) 31 vs. Steelers 25, Favorite-Over (45)
• 2011 - Giants (+3) 21 vs. Patriots 17, Underdog-Under (53)
• 2016 - Patriots (-3) 34 vs. Falcons 28 (OT), Favorite-Over (57)

Looking above, you can see that the point-spread didn't matter in the Super Bowl when it was in this range except for the infamous "Black Sunday" finale between the Steelers and Cowboys back in the late seventies.

Overall, favorites and underdogs have gone 6-6 in the 12 situations.

You can read more about that situation and check out another great resource for the NFL finale in our Super Bowl History page.

The Super Bowl betting history covers the first 54 matchups of the NFL finale, focusing on the two teams, the betting lines and the final score.

This will be the fourth Super Bowl appearance for Kansas City and the second trip for the Tampa Bay franchise.

Super Bowl Betting History - Bucs & Chiefs

Tampa Bay

1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 OU

• 2003 - Tampa Bay 48 vs. Oakland 21, Buccaneers +4, Over 44

Kansas City

2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-2 OU

• 2020 - Kansas City 31 vs. San Francisco 20, Chiefs -1.5, Under 53
• 1970 - Kansas City 23 vs. Minnesota 7, Chiefs +12, Under 39
• 1967 - Kansas City 10 vs. Green Bay 35, Chiefs +14, NA

Looking above, you can see that the Chiefs will be looking to repeat as Super Bowl champions. As mentioned above, our Hot & Not report by Matt Blunt provides an in-depth look at teams looking to win two straight NFL titles.

Along with the below results, Blunt provides some great angles that could help you lean to either Kansas City or Tampa Bay.

SBLII (52) Philadelphia Eagles 41 New England Patriots 33 (Loss)
SBLI (51) New England Patriots 34 Atlanta Falcons 28

SBXLIX (49) New England Patriots 28 Seattle Seahawks 24 (Loss)
SBXLVIII (48) Seattle Seahawks 43 Denver Broncos 8

The NFL hasn't had a repeat champion since SB39 when New England beat up Dononvan McNabb and the Eagles in 2005. (AP)

SBXXXIX (39) New England Patriots 24 Philadelphia Eagles 21 (Repeat)
SBXXXVIII (38) New England Patriots 32 Carolina Panthers 29

SBXXXIII (33) Denver Broncos 34 Atlanta Falcons 19 (Repeat)
SBXXXII (32) Denver Broncos 31 Green Bay Packers 24 (Loss)
SBXXXI (31) Green Bay Packers 35 New England Patriots 21

SBXXVIII (28) Dallas Cowboys 30 Buffalo Bills 13 (Repeat)
SBXXVII (27) Dallas Cowboys 52 Buffalo Bills 17

SBXXIV (24) San Francisco 49ers 55 Denver Broncos 10 (Repeat)
SBXXIII (23) San Francisco 49ers 20 Cincinnati Bengals 16

SBXVIII (18) Los Angeles Raiders 38 Washington Redskins 9 (Loss)
SBXVII (17) Washington Redskins 27 Miami Dolphins 17

SBXIV (14) Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Los Angeles Rams 19 (Repeat)
SBXIII (13) Pittsburgh Steelers 35 Dallas Cowboys 31 (Loss)
SBXII (12) Dallas Cowboys 27 Denver Broncos 10

SBX (10) Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Dallas Cowboys 17 (Repeat)
SBIX (9) Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Minnesota Vikings 6

SBVIII (8) Miami Dolphins 24 Minnesota Vikings 7 (Repeat)
SBVII (7) Miami Dolphins 14 Washington Redskins 7

SBII (2) Green Bay Packers 33 Oakland Raiders 14 (Repeat)
SBI (1) Green Bay Packers 35 Kansas City Chiefs 1

Inside the Stats - Chiefs vs. Bucs

SB55 Stats Report | Power Rankings

This year’s Super Bowl 55 matchup is expected to have some points, with the total hovering at 56 points.

That shouldn’t come as a surprise considering we have two great offensive units going head-to-head on Sunday.

However, the defensive squads should not be overlooked as the Buccaneers (22.3 PPG) and Chiefs (22.4 PPG) are ranked 9th and 10th respectively in scoring.

One of the most important stats that handicappers use when it comes to dissecting their best is “Yards per Play” metric.

Tampa Bay has a net rating of 0.9 (6.0 – 5.1) while Kansas City checks in at 0.8 (6.4 -5.6).

Super Bowl 55 - Most Viewed Stories

• Betting Moves & Updates
• O/U Total Predictions
• Parlay Predictions
• MVP Predictions
• Team-Player Prop Predictions
• Novelty Prop Predictions
• Betting Trends & Angles
• Penalty Prop Analysis
• 55 Super Angles

Handicapping the Side - Chiefs vs. Bucs

Do you lay the points with Kansas City or take them with Tampa Bay?

Perhaps just toss out the point-spread and root for the straight up victory and place money-line wagers?

Those questions will be asked numerous times among bettors before Super Bowl Sunday and eventually answered about four hours later.

Everybody takes a different approach to handicapping their action and for this matchup, we're going to lean on Chris David of VegasInsider.com, who powers the Value Index Edge, to help us handicap the NFL finale.

David's ratings produced a 62.7% win rate for this season in the NFL and when you look at the records of our NFL Experts, you can see that he's had a solid pulse this season.

CD doesn't pen much these days for VI but he'll always provide answers to any of your questions or thoughts for us and via email at cdavid@vegasinsider.com.

According to this Super Bowl matchup between the Chiefs and Buccaneers, he has Kansas City listed as four points higher in his VI Edge power ratings.

David offered up a quick looked at his power ratings for VI.

He said, "At the beginning of the season, I had KC at 108 and Tampa Bay at 103 in my ratings and when the pair met in Week 12, the Chiefs were a hook higher (108.5) but the Buccaneers were 103."

"Kansas City was the better team in the first meeting and if it wasn't for a turnover, the Chiefs would've been up 20-0 or 24-0 early in the second quarter. Head coach Andy Reid pumped the brakes in the second-half and Tampa made the game look formidable, heck they even got the back-door cover."

During the season, David's top VI Edge plays would be on games where there was an "edge" of +2 or more and since Kansas City is +1, this would be a no-play based on the VI handicapping tool.

Eye Test

Based on player rankings from other sites and insight from our VI team, we believe this is an even matchup when you look at the talent on the field and sidelines.

If you had to rank the six units playing Sunday, this would be my order of talent.

1) Kansas City Offense
2) Tampa Bay Offense
3) Tampa Bay Defense
4) Kansas City Defense
5) Kansas City Special Teams
6) Tampa Bay Special Teams

For coaching, I believe Andy Reid gets the edge over Bruce Arians.

Plus, their is an advantage to the Chiefs with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and you can say the same with KC defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who is well-known for shutting down Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

If you put stock into coaching when you handicap games, then that 'narrative' can certainly be in play here.

Position Breakdown

Kansas City Chiefs Categories Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pass Offense - - Rush Offense - Pass Defense - Rush Defense Special Teams - Coaching -

Head-to-Head

As we already know this game will be a rematch from the 2020 regular season and that's a rare occurrence in the Super Bowl, not surprisingly since the NFC and AFC only meet in four games a season.

Kansas City captured a 27-24 road win in Week 12 over Tampa Bay but failed to cover (-3.5) as the Buccaneers outscored the Chiefs 17-7 in the second-half and 14-0 in the fourth quarter.

From a head-to-head quarterback perspective, Patrick Mahomes is 2-2 versus Tom Brady in four meetings and the 'over-under' has gone 2-2 as well.

Back to Super Bowl rematches from the regular season, it's only happened in 13 of the first 54 finales and in those rematches, we've only seen six teams be able to complete the two-game sweep.

As Matt Blunt pointed out in his Super Bowl 55 MVP Prediction piece -- Tom Brady has been involved in the last three rematches in the Super Bowl and he's gone 1-2 in those games.

The two losses came to the New York Giants while the win came in his first Super Bowl appearance, as an underdog, against the St. Louis Rams.

Situational

Since the Super Bowl is played at a neutral venue, the Home-Away tendencies can be ignored for both team but perhaps not this season since Tampa Bay will be the first host city to play in the final.

Will that matter? There will only be 22,000 fans in attendance and the Kansas City fan base does travel well but you'd have to believe a slight edge goes to the Bucs in this spot, especially if the game is tight late.

Current Form is another handicapping approach that can be dismissed since both teams enter the Super Bowl with winning streak, Tampa Bay with seven and even though it's just two for KC, you could say its 12 since the Chiefs rested starters in their Week 17 regular season loss to the Chargers.

A lot has been made of Brady in the playoffs as an underdog and it's an impressive record at 8-3 both SU and ATS.

Brady Underdog Playoff History

• 2020 - Bucs (+3.5) 31 at Packers 26, Over 53
• 2020 - Bucs (+3) 30 at Saints 20, Under 53.5
• 2019 - Patriots (+3) 37 at Chiefs 31, Over 56
• 2015 - Patriots (+1) 28 vs. Seahawks 24, Over 47.5 (SB 49)
• 2014 - Patriots (+4.5) 16 at Broncos 26, Under 56.5
• 2007 - Patriots (+3.5) 34 at Colts 38, Over 47
• 2007 - Patriots (+4.5) 24 at Chargers 21, Under 46
• 2006 - Patriots (+3) 13 at Broncos 27, Under 45.5
• 2005 - Patriots (+1) 20 vs. Colts 13, Under 51
• 2002 - Patriots (+14) 20 vs. Rams 17, Under 53
• 2002 - Patriots (+8) 24 at Steelers 17, Over 36 (SB 36)

Kansas City hasn't been great for bettors this season, going 8-9-1 ATS but it has gone 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS when listed -3.5 or less and the lone loss came in the aformentioned back-door by the Bucs in Week 12.

Prediction - Kansas City Chiefs

I'm buying the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and you can hear my analysis in the below video or listen to the Bet and Collect Podcast.

Super Bowl 55 - Over-Under Total Predictions

If you like to lean on historical trends, then the 'under' is likely going to be your play on Sunday.

Why do you say that K-Rog? Well, this is the 12th Super Bowl with a total of 50 or higher and the ‘under’ has gone 8-3 in the first 11 Super Bowls involving a total of 50 or more, including last season’s 31-20 win by the Chiefs over the 49ers.

Matt Blunt offering up a great Over-Under Total Predictions piece on Super Bowl 55 and his top selections are focused on the first 15 minutes of the game.

• 1st Quarter Total Over 10
• Tampa Bay 1st Quarter Team Total Over 6.5

Blunt is going against the grain in this one, considering Brady's known to come out slow in Super Bowls.

Along with Matt's top picks, we've asked Chris David to put on his "Total Talk" hat again and give us his breakdown on this number and provide a winning selection.

CD offered up his handicap on Super Bowl 55.

Total Talk

After watching the last two Super Bowls end with easy ‘under’ tickets, I believe we’re going to reverse the course on Sunday and see an easy ‘over’ winner for bettors. I expect both teams to get a minimum of five scores in the game with the winner possibly putting up six or seven.

Even though many would believe that if both teams combine for 11 or 12 scores, the ‘over’ should be a lock but if you’re settling for 3’s (field goals) instead of 6’s (touchdowns) then everything can change. Point in case with a frustrating NFL playoff loss I suffered this season as the Bucs beat the Saints 30-20 and both teams had 10 combined scores, five of them were field goals and two under 30 yards.

In this year’s playoffs, KC has scored five times against Cleveland and wound up with 22 points in the Divisional Round before posting 38 points on the Bills with six scores in the AFC Championship. Coincidentally, the 38 points scored against Buffalo was the best effort from the offense this season and I believe that will carry over against the Bucs, especially with the extra week of rest.

Andy Reid’s bye record is legendary in the NFL coaching circles, 18-3 in the regular season with rest and 6-2 in the playoffs. Delving into the numbers further, Reid has never lost a game with rest with Patrick Mahomes as quarterback and the offensive numbers have been scary. The club has averaged 35.7 points per game and while the 31-point effort versus the 49ers in last year’s Super Bowl was a tad misleading, the average is still impressive.

The one X-Factor for Kansas City is the banged-up offensive line along with turnovers and penalties, injuries are tough to handicap. We know offensive tackle Eric Fisher is ‘out’ but will his absence curb this high-powered attack. For bettors backing the Chiefs on the spread or money-line, they better hope so because I believe Tampa Bay will connect as well and with touchdowns.

After analyzing the KC defense, the Bucs should have plenty of chances if they can move the chains. The Chiefs own the worst red zone defense in the NFL, allowing an eye-opening 76.6% touchdown percentage. Even though many teams haven’t reached the red zone of the Chiefs, there have been 36 touchdowns in 47 attempts.

In the Divisional Round, the Browns got to the red zone three times and scored two touchdowns while they fumbled the ball out of the endzone for the other opportunity. Versus Buffalo, the Chiefs held the Bills did a much better job as they forced Buffalo to two short field goals (20, 27). Brady and the Bucs have more options than those AFC opponents and the percentages will be closer to the KC average for touchdowns in this spot.

Another narrative that I’ve heard surrounding this matchup is:

“Tampa Bay’s game plan will look to keep Mahomes and KC off the field and establish long drives, shorten the clock, blah, blah, blah…”

That thought process is key for Tampa Bay ML and Under backers but guess what, it doesn’t work and that stats will tell you that. Mahomes is 44-9 in his young career and in those losses, the Chiefs have allowed 36.2 PPG.

The only way to beat Kansas City is by outscoring the Chiefs and Mahomes, something Brady has done twice during his tenure with the Patriots. In those wins, New England captured 43-40 and 37-31 (OT) wins over Kansas City. In his two losses versus Mahomes, the Brady-led teams scored 16 and 24 points.

In 2019, Mahomes was held to 24 and 13 points to the Texans and Colts respectively at home in losses and that was the lowest output in a defeat for the signal caller. The sports books would love to see one of those outcomes but I don’t see it happening.

CD's Best Bets

• Over 1st Half 27.5
• Bucs Team Total Over 27
• Chiefs Team Total Over 30

Super Bowl 55 - Parlay Predictions

If you're interested in making multiple bets on one ticket, that is called a parlay. A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers for a high payout. For a two-team parlay, that normally pays out 13/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260).

Below is an analysis of both the Chiefs' and Buccaneers' results from this season based on a correlation of their ATS results along with totals.

2020 Season Breakdown

Kansas City ATS Win-Over: 4 times
Kansas City ATS Win-Under: 4 times
Kansas City ATS Loss-Over: 4 times
Kansas City ATS Loss-Under: 6 times

Tampa Bay ATS Win-Over: 5 times
Tampa Bay ATS Win-Under: 6 times
Tampa Bay ATS Loss-Over: 6 times
Tampa Bay ATS Loss-Under: 2 times

Click here for more analysis on correlated parlay results in Super Bowl history and see why Matt Blunt is leaning to his prediction of Tampa Bay-Under for Super Bowl 55.

Parlay Prediction: Tampa Bay-Under

Super Bowl 55 - Props Predictions

Paul Bovi and myself take a closer look at the Props for Super Bowl 55 in our video below.

Bovi is a well-known advantage player in our industry and he was busy moving prop numbers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook when the numbers came out.

Super Bowl 55 MVP Predictions

VI expert Matt Blunt provides another deep dive on one of the more popular betting options in the Super Bowl. Full Analysis

Top 3 Picks

1) Tom Brady
2) Darrel Williams
3) Carlton Davis III

Novelty Props Predictions

There are plenty of off-the-wall props that are out there for Sunday's matchup, including what color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach and will the opening coin toss land on heads or tails?

Check out four best bets for Sunday, including "Will a Quarterback Have a Reception?" and "Player to Score the First Touchdown."

Player & Team Props Predictions

Want to focus strictly on player and team props for Super Bowl LV? You can find 10 prop predictions, including ones focused on Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, and Travis Kelce.

Penalty Prop Breakdown

What makes that interesting for this year is the fact that of the 19 Super Bowls we've had with a closing point spread of -3 or lower, 11 times the team with fewer penalty yardage has won the game compared to only 7 defeats (one push in SB 19).

Considering this angle (had you known penalty yardage beforehand) is a perfect 4-0 SU the last four times we've had a SB lined in this range.

• Super Bowl 54 - Chiefs 31 49ers 20
• Super Bowl 53 - Patriots 13 Rams 3
• Super Bowl 51 - Patriots 34 Falcons 28 (OT)
• Super Bowl 49 - Patriots 28 Seahawks 24

And wouldn't you know it, this year's QBs – Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady – account for all four of those recent wins.

Click here for more Penalty Prop Breakdown.

Betcha Didn't Know

If you’re a bettor that likes to rationalize your position on a particular wager, then look no further.

The VegasInsider.com Editorial and Production staff have uncovered 55 Super Betting Angles with hopes of helping you strengthen your thought process on all of your side, total and prop wagers on the Chiefs and Bucs.

55 Super Betting Angles

Here's a quick snapshot of a few...

1 - There have been eight Super Bowl champions that have repeated but only 1 player to double-up on the Most Valuable Player award, which was Bart Starr of the Green Bay Packers in SBI and SBII. If Kansas City wins and you’re buying this trend, you might want to leave quarterback Patrick Mahomes (the MVP favorite) off your ticket list.

2 - The amount of Super Bowl victories (2) by teams currently in the NFC South (Buccaneers in 2002 and Saints in 2009).

3 - Tampa Bay owns a 14-5 record entering SB55 but three of the losses have come at night and that includes a 0-2 record at Raymond James Stadium.

• Week 9 - Bucs 3 Saints 38
• Week 11 - Bucs 24 Rams 27

4 - The Chiefs are making their fourth Super Bowl appearance. Kansas City rallied past San Francisco last February, 31-20, as the Chiefs are playing in their third different city in the Southeast in the Super Bowl (New Orleans, Miami, Tampa).

5 - This will be the fifth Super Bowl played in the city of Tampa, Florida. The AFC has gone 3-1 in the first four installments for the city that’s also known as “Cigar City”, “The Big Guava” and also “The Lightning Capital of the World.”

55 - This is the fifth Super Bowl with a total of 55 or higher. The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the first four instances, with the lone ‘over’ hitting in Super Bowl LI between the Patriots and Falcons, which needed overtime to cash.

Click here for more Super Bowl Betting Angles.

Injuries - Chiefs vs. Bucs

Kansas City Chiefs

• T Eric Fisher: Achilles - Out
• LB Willie Gay, Jr.: Knee - Out
• CB Rashad Fenton: Foot - Questionable
• RB Le'Veon Bell: Knee - Questionable
• C Daniel Kilgore: Quarantine - Probable
• WR Demarcus Robinson: Quarantine - Probable
• CB L'Jarius Sneed: Concussion - Probable
• S Armani Watts: Concussion - Probable
• WR Sammy Watkins: Calf - Probable

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• S Jordan Whitehead: Shoulder - Doubtful
• WR Antonio Brown: Knee - Probable
• TE Cameron Brate: Back - Probable
• LB Lavonte David: Hamstring - Probable
• S Antoine Winfield, Jr.: Ankle - Probable