Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Sept. 30, 2021

Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Week 4 of the NFL season will kick things off with a compelling Thursday night matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals – as consecutive number one draft picks, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence, will square off for the first time since LSU took down Clemson in the 2020 National Championship (42-25).

Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Jaguars 13

Best Bet: Cincinnati -7.5

Best Bet: Joe Burrow (CIN/QB) Over 247.5 Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals Predictions

After knocking off Minnesota in dramatic fashion to open the season (W, 27-24 OT), Cincinnati appeared to hit a slight offensive road bump against the Bears in Week 2 – as the Bengals generated just 17 points on 206 total yards during their sloppy low-scoring loss in Chicago (4 TO).

The Bengals bounced back with a brilliant performance in Pittsburgh last week though, as Burrow completed 14-of-18 passes for 172 yards and three touchdowns on the way to Cincy’s impressive double-digit road victory over a divisional foe (24-10).

On the other side of things, the Jaguars brought in head coach Urban Meyer to guide Lawrence along his first NFL journey – and so far, it’s been a difficult transition for both of them, as Jacksonville finds itself off to a disappointing 0-3 start and the former Clemson Tiger currently shares the league-lead in interceptions (7 INT).

I’ll lay the points with Cincy here, as Jacksonville paces the league in offensive turnovers by a healthy margin after this first three weeks of Meyer’s tenure (9 TO) – and similar mental lapses will likely amplify in a primetime matchup against a Bengals’ defense that has already forced five takeaways this year.

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds

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The Bengals head into Thursday’s contest as a touchdown-favorite over the visiting Jaguars – marking the first time Cincinnati has been favored all season.

The total for Thursday’s event hangs around OU 46 at most shops, which falls directly between the numbers set for the Jaguars and Bengals’ respective Week 2 affairs (U 51.5, U 42).

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Resources

• Matchup: AFC South vs. AFC North
• Date: Thursday, September 30, 2021
• Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
• Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
• TV-Time: NFLN - 8:20 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report
• Super Bowl 56 Betting

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 0-3
• ATS: 0-3
• O/U: 1-2
• ATS - Home: 0-2
• ATS - Away: 0-1

The books appeared to think somewhat highly of Jacksonville before Week 1, as the Jaguars visited Houston as three-point road favorites ahead of Lawrence and Meyer’s regular-season debut with the team (HOU +3.5) – which marked the first time Jacksonville was favored in an event since their Week 3 loss to the Dolphins last year (MIA +2.5).

Jacksonville’s bubble was quickly burst by Tyrod Taylor and the Texans though, as the Jaguars turned the ball over three times and surrendered 449 yards of offense to Houston in their opening matchup – which is a recipe for a loss under almost any circumstance.

Be wary of consistently fading Jacksonville at steep prices, as the Jaguars wield the necessary offensive firepower to pull off an upset in virtually any matchup – but until Lawrence and company visibly clean up their abysmal turnover issues, I still feel comfortable laying a touchdown against them.

Cincinnati Bengals Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 2-1
• ATS: 2-1
• O/U: 1-2
• ATS - Home: 1-0
• ATS - Away: 1-1

After finishing last in the AFC North with a record of 4-11 last year, the Bengals looked completely rejuvenated across the first three weeks of the new season, considering Cincinnati enters Week 4 having already achieved half of its previous win-total (2-1) – with its only loss coming to Chicago in a hard-fought road matchup (L, 20-17).

Shamefully admitting, I immediately jumped off the Bengals’ bandwagon following their head-scratching offensive performance against the Bears – but after seeing the way Burrow and company handled business in Pittsburgh last week, I feel very comfortable backing them against the winless Jags’ this Thursday night.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone OVER the point total in six straight games when playing as the favorite. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Jacksonville Jaguars

• Record: 0-3
• Division Standing: 3rd - AFC South
• Points Scored: 53
• Points Allowed: 91
• PS/G: 17.7 (27th)
• PA/G: 30.3 (28th)

Inside the Stats - Cincinnati Bengals

• Record: 2-1
• Division Standing: 1st - AFC North
• Points Scored: 68
• Points Allowed: 54
• PS/G: 22.7 (17th)
• PA/G: 18 (6th)

Key Players to Watch

• JAC: Trevor Lawrence - QB (64/118, 669 yards, 5 TD, 7 INT)
• JAC: Marvin Jones - WR (17 catches, 194 yards, 2 TD)
• CIN: Joe Burrow - QB (53/75, 640 yards, 7 TD, 4 INT)
• CIN: Ja'Marr Chase - WR (11 catches, 220 yards, 4 TD)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Conclusion

After thumping the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week, the Bengals return to Cincinnati as a touchdown- favorite over the visiting Jaguars on Thursday night – which marks the first time Cincinnati has been favored all season.

I’ll lay points with Cincinnati here, as the Bengals shouldn’t find much trouble moving the ball through the air against a Jacksonville secondary that ranked 28th in yardage 30th in completion percentage across the first three weeks of the year (302.3 YPG, 74.3% CMP) – which is why I’m also taking Burrow’s passing yards over this Thursday night.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends

• Jacksonville has lost 18 straight games.
• Jacksonville has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games.
• Cincinnati has gone OVER the point total in six straight games when playing as the favorite.

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