Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Oct. 3, 2021

Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

There has been a lot of attention given to Tom Brady facing his former team, but he isn’t the only quarterback taking on his old team this weekend. Jacoby Brissett will lead the Miami Dolphins against the Indianapolis Colts in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa. Kick off is set for 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday and will air on CBS from the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

Score Prediction: Miami 24, Indianapolis 20

Best Bet: Dolphins -1.5

Best Bet: Over 42.5

Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins Predictions

Neither one of these teams has looked great through the first three weeks of the season. Miami was somewhat fortunate to beat New England in its first game, while Indianapolis has only stayed within one score in one of its games.

Brissett was a decent signal caller during his time in Indianapolis. However, he has struggled to move the ball with the Dolphins. He averaged just 4.2 YPA against Buffalo and 4.4 YPA against Las Vegas. Brissett was unable to move the ball successfully until late in the game against the Raiders last week.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Resources

• Matchup: AFC South vs. AFC East
• Date: Sunday, October 3, 2021
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
• Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
• TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report
• Super Bowl 56 Betting

Indianapolis Colts Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 0-3
• ATS: 1-2
• O/U: 1-2
• ATS - Home: 1-1
• ATS - Away: 0-1

The Colts have been very disappointing on the offensive line through the first three games of the 2021 NFL season. All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson is the only player that has been performing well up front, but he is questionable to play this week.

Nelson isn’t the only player dealing with injuries for the Colts though, as seven starters missed practice on Thursday. Along the offensive line, Braden Smith didn’t participate, and Mark Glowinski was limited, and both players are listed as questionable this weekend. This offensive line was trumpeted as the best in the NFL in the preseason, but there is no depth behind the starters.

Carson Wentz, Jonathan Taylor, and Jack Doyle are all listed as questionable too. Wentz is dealing with two sprained ankles and has already been sacked eight times this season. He has struggled to be effective in the passing game without deep threat T.Y. Hilton, but Michael Pittman Jr. has been a bright spot.

Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 1-2
• ATS: 2-1
• O/U: 1-2
• ATS - Home: 0-1
• ATS - Away: 2-0

The Dolphins are at least running the ball better than we have seen in previous years. Myles Gaskin is averaging 5.1 YPC, and Malcolm Brown is picking up 4.0 YPC. Washington product Salvon Ahmed is still one of the least effective running backs in the league, but he isn’t receiving a lot of carries anymore as Miami’s running backs are managing to stay healthy.

Rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle has largely been used on underneath routes this season. Waddle is averaging just 7.6 YPC, and that’s one of the lowest totals in the league for a receiver. He is currently leading the Dolphins in receiving and has been targeted more than any other player, but DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki have been more effective options for Miami.

The Indianapolis Colts have gone OVER the point total in six of its last eight road games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Indianapolis Colts

• Record: 0-3
• Division Standing: 3rd - AFC South
• Points Scored: 56
• Points Allowed: 80
• PS/G: 18.7 (24th)
• PA/G: 26.7 (22nd)

Inside the Stats - Miami Dolphins

• Record: 1-2
• Division Standing: 2nd - AFC East
• Points Scored: 45
• Points Allowed: 82
• PS/G: 15 (30th)
• PA/G: 27.3 (23rd)

Key Players to Watch

• IND: Carson Wentz - QB (64/106, 692 yards, 3 TD, INT)
• IND: Michael Pittman, Jr. - WR (17 catches, 220 yards)
• MIA: Jaylen Waddle - WR (22 catches, 167 yards, TD)
• MIA: Mike Gesicki - TE (13 catches, 127 yards)

Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Conclusion

This is a game to closely monitor before kickoff due to Indianapolis’ injury situation. The strength of the Colts’ offense is in the offensive line, and the loss of Nelson alone should move the betting odds given that he is the best guard in the NFL.

Miami is not dealing with as many injuries, and this is a well-coached team. That makes the Dolphins the better play, and that’s why the line has moved in their favor on the news of the Colts’ injury situation.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Trends

• Indianapolis has gone OVER the point total in six of its last eight road games.
• Indianapolis has covered the spread in five of its last seven games when playing in Miami.
• Indianapolis has lost 10 of its last 15 road games.
• Miami has gone UNDER the point total in six of its last eight home games.
• Miami has covered the spread in six of its last seven home games.

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