Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Oct. 31, 2021

Stuart Durst
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

An AFC East meeting on Sunday sees the Miami Dolphins head to New York to take on the Buffalo Bills. Kick is set for 1:00 p.m. ET and will air on CBS from Highland Park in Orchard Park, New York.

Score Prediction

Bills 34, Dolphins 17

Best Bets

Bills -13.5

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions

Imagine coming into this season predicting the Bills would be -13.5 favorites against the Dolphins, a divisional rival. In the futures market, the Bills are currently the Super Bowl winning favorites while the Dolphins are really only in contention for ‘first coach fired’. With the Bills coming in off of a tough loss against the Titans, I think we can expect a nice bounce back game from Josh Allen. The Dolphins are rumored to be interested in trading for Deshaun Watson and who knows how that goes over the next couple weeks.

If you read last week's piece on the Dolphins, you would know I’ve finally freed myself from this curse. While I will continue to be a closeted Brian Flores believer, Its time to except that this team is not going to magically bounce-back. The Bills beat the Dolphins 35-0 a couple weeks ago and I'm not sure enough has really changed for me to bet the Dolphins here.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Resources

• Matchup: AFC East
• Date: Sunday, October 31, 2021
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, New York
• TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report
• Super Bowl 56 Betting

Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 1-6
• ATS: 2-5
• O/U: 4-3
• ATS - Home: 0-3
• ATS - Away: 2-2

I've heard people in the media calling this the “Dolphins Super Bowl” - but I'm not sure what we’re supposed to do with that information. With the NFL, there is a wide range of outcomes we could see from any team any given day. That's why teams like the Bills historically do lose to the Dolphins. Additionally, people love betting on big underdogs in divisional games simply because they believe the players will be more motivated in this game.

I'm just happy this is a home game for the Bills, otherwise media pundits would have already gathered the three key betting narratives to complete the Thanos Gauntlet, “Divisional Dog”, “Home Dog”, “Dolphins Super Bowl”. I'm sure the embarrassing 35-0 loss will be brought up in a context to justify betting on the Bills, arguing that they wont let that kind of embarrassment happen again, but maybe that game actually just showed the talent disparity between these two teams.

Overall this Dolphins defense was supposed to be a strength coming into the season, but instead has been a huge weakness. They really haven't been able to stop anyone, including the Falcons last season, and I'm not confident they can stop this Bills team.

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 4-2
• ATS: 4-2
• O/U: 3-3
• ATS - Home: 2-1
• ATS - Away: 2-1

Remember a couple years back when nobody would pick big underdogs against the Ravens because they were known to just absolutely destroy bad teams? Well that's the Bills this season. So far this season, they beat the Texans by 40, the Dolphins by 35, Washington by 22, and the Chiefs by 18. This team not only takes care of business, they go the extra mile and really make their dominance clear.

One of the best things the Bills do this season is understand their strengths and weaknesses. A lot of teams have guidelines they look to follow, but tend to over-alter their playbookers based on in-game situations. The Bills understand the heart of this team is Allen and his dual threat abilities. Most teams game plan for the Chiefs in the same exact way, they would get Singletary and Moss involved early and often and do their best to establish the run. The Bills decided that Allen is the MVP candidate for a reason, let's trust him to make the call. This is the same reason why they keep throwing up 10-17 points against teams, it's their strength and they don't plan on showing any mercy.

Overall this is a divisional game, and I can see the temptation to back the Dolphins, but I'm just not confident they can keep it close enough. The Bills have one of the most high octane offenses in the league, and their star receiver Stefon Diggs hasn't even had a breakout game yet. The Bills defense is not only talented, it's fairly deep, I'm confident they keep it rolling this week.

The Buffalo Bills have won seven straight divisional games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Miami Dolphins

• Record: 1-6
• Division Standing: 4th - AFC East
• Points Scored: 127
• Points Allowed: 207
• PS/G: 18.1 (29th)
• PA/G: 29.6 (31st)

Inside the Stats - Buffalo Bills

• Record: 4-2
• Division Standing: 1st - AFC East
• Points Scored: 203
• Points Allowed: 98
• PS/G: 33.8 (2nd)
• PA/G: 16.3 (1st)

Key Players to Watch

• MIA: Tua Tagovailoa - QB (104/159, 883 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT)
• MIA: Jaylen Waddle - WR (44 catches, 384 yards, 3 TD)
• BUF: Josh Allen - QB (149/230, 1.723 yards, 15 TD, 3 INT)
• BUF: Emmanuel Sanders - WR (24 catches, 413 yards, 4 TD)

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Conclusion

Props are going to be interesting for this game. Tua has been putting up some big numbers the last two weeks, against bad defenses, and should be trailing for a lot of this game. The Bills spread the ball around a lot of offense between Diggs, Knox, Sanders, Beasley and more but I'm eagerly curious about Josh Allen rush yards. He's crushed it this season and I expect that to continue against a struggling Dolphins defense.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

• Buffao has won seven straight divisional games.
• Miami has failed to cover the spread in four straight games.
• The point total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings.
• Buffalo has won five straight games when facing Miami.
• Buffalo has gone OVER the point total in four of its last six games.

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