New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Nov. 21, 2021

Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The New Orleans Saints (5-4) travel to meet the Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) in a key NFC battle in Week 11 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pa. on Sunday. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on FOX.

Score Prediction

Saints 23, Eagles 18

Best Bets

Saints +125 ML

Saints +3 (-115)

Under 42.5 (-110)

New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles Predictions

The Saints have gone ice-cold in the past two weeks, dropping each of the past two games with QB Trevor Siemian under center. When QB Jameis Winston went down with a season-ending injury, did the season go down the tubes with him? Well, it's not really Siemian's fault, as he was a respectable 25-of-41 for 249 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in his Week 9 start against the Atlanta Falcons, and 19-of-34 for 298 yards, two touchdowns and no picks in the Week 10 loss at Tennessee. Both games have been setbacks by just two points, so what is ailing the Saints exactly?

After a hot start to the season, allowing just 3, 26, 13, 27, 22 and 10 in the first six games, helping New Orleans cash the UNDER four times, the defense has allowed 27, 27 and 23 in the past three games, an average of 25.7 PPG. That's nearly six points higher than the season average (19.8 PPG), and not optimum with the Saints needing the defense now more than ever with the team forced to use the backup quarterback. Siemian is doing his job, the D isn't doing theirs.

You never really know what you're going to get from the Eagles, who have been rather Jekyll and Hyde lately. They topped the Carolina Panthers 21-18 in Charlotte in Week 5, winning outright as a 2.5-point underdog, then returned home to lose to Tampa Bay n Week 6. They lost in Las Vegas 33-22, then went to Detroit and tuned up the Lions 44-6 in Week 8. The Eagles returned home and lost a heartbreaker to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9, then went to Denver and throttled the Broncos 30-13 as a one-point favorite. Who will show up in Week 11?

New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds

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New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Resources

• Matchup: NFC South vs. NFC East
• Date: Sunday, November 21, 2021
• Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
• Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• TV-Time: FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report
• Super Bowl 56 Betting

New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 5-4
• ATS: 5-4
• O/U: 5-4
• ATS - Home: 2-2
• ATS - Away: 3-2

The Saints head into this one looking to improve upon their solid road numbers over the past few years. New Orleans is 36-15 ATS in the past 51 games on the road, while going 24-8 ATS in the past 32 as a road 'dog. In addition, NOLA is 11-5 ATS in the past 16 against losing teams, which Philadelphia certainly qualifies. There is also something about Week 11 which the Saints really like, as New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in the past five games in the week.

The OVER has hit in five of the past six games for the Saints, although the UNDER is 7-3 in the previous 10 games on the road. There was a stunning late total flip last week, when WR Marquez Callaway hauled in a touchdown to make the OVER come through when it probably shouldn't have.

The Saints rank 25th in the NFL with 321.1 total yards, while they're second-to-last in passing yards per game at 202.2. The rushing attack is the best part of the offense, led by RB Alvin Kamara, posting 118.9 yards per game on the ground. Defensively, the Saints are tops in the NFL with just 72.9 rushing yards per game allowed, so that will be a key stat to watch against Hurts and company. New Orleans will try its hardest to make him beat them with his arm, not his feet, and that's not really his strong suit, at least not yet.

Philadelphia Eagles Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 4-6
• ATS: 5-5
• O/U: 5-5
• ATS - Home: 1-3
• ATS - Away: 4-2

The Eagles covered last week in Denver, and three weeks ago in Detroit. The problem for the Eagles hasn't been covering the number on the road, it's been covering at home. Philadelphia is 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in four games at home so far, which, of course, the Philadelphia fans take reasonably well and are super patient. The Eagles haven't covered on a Sunday at home this season, either, as the lone ATS win came on that miracle cover when head coach Nick Sirianni did the analytics thing and went for two on a touchdown in the fourth quarter in Week 6 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Thursday game. The Eagles fell 28-22 as seven-point 'dogs.

The good news for the Eagles, their last win at home came Dec. 13, 2020, and the opponent was the New Orleans Saints. QB Jalen Hurts is the leading rusher for the Eagles, going for 549 yards. His rushing, coupled with the resurgence of RB Jordan Howard, and combination of Boston Scott and rookie Kenneth Gainwell, has this Eagles rushing attack ranking third in the NFL with 144.5 yards per game on the ground. The offense has also produced a respectable 25.7 PPG. Defensively, the Eagles are so-so, and a little inconsistent. They're 14th in total yards allowed (350.6) and 14th in points allowed (23.1) per game.

The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in the past six as a home favorite, and 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games overall when favored. The only notable trend in their favor is a 5-2 ATS mark in the past seven against NFC opponents.

As far as the totals, the UNDER is 14-5 in the past 19 games at home, while going 7-1 in the past eight as a home favorite. The UNDER is a whopping 15-3 in the past 18 games in the month of November for Philly, too.

Jalen Hurts leads the Eagles in rushing, a unit ranked No. 3 in the NFL overall. (AP)

Inside the Stats - New Orleans Saints

• Record: 5-4
• Division Standing: 1-2
• Points Scored: 222
• Points Allowed: 178
• PS/G: 24.7
• PA/G: 19.8

Inside the Stats - Philadelphia Eagles

• Record: 4-6
• Division Standing: 0-1
• Points Scored: 257
• Points Allowed: 231
• PS/G: 25.7
• PA/G: 23.1

Key Players to Watch

• NOR: Trevor Siemian - QB (60/104, 706 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT)
• NOR: Alvin Kamara - RB (178 touches, 843 total yards, 7 total TD)
• PHI: Jalen Hurts - QB (184/296, 2,708 total yards, 18 total TDs, 5 INT)
• PHI: DeVonta Smith - WR (42 catches, 603 yards, 4 TD)

New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Conclusion

I don't really love the Saints with Siemian at the helm, but he has been a caretaker and he hasn't made any mistakes since taking the reins. I think the run defense can shut Hurts and the Eagles down, changing the complexion of the Philly offense. Hurts can pass, and WR DaVonta Smith can be effective, but in spurts. We haven't seen a mostly aerial attack be effective for a full 60 minutes for the Eagles to date.

I think defense wins the day for both teams, and this one has the look of an UNDER being the best bet. And if you like field goals, you're probably going to be pretty happy, too. We might see a late spurt of offense in the fourth quarter, but the UNDER should still come in with a total in the high 30's or low 40's. The best part of both offenses is the run game, and running the ball runs clock, which aids UNDER bettors.

New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Trends

• The Saints are 11-5 ATS in the past 16 vs. losing teams.
• The Saints are 5-1 ATS in the past six November games.
• The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in the past six as a home favorite.
• the Eagles are 3-8 ATS in the past 11 overall as a favorite.
• The OVER is 5-1 in the past six games overall for the Saints.
• The UNDER is 7-3 in the past 10 road games for the Saints.
• The UNDER is 15-3 in the past 18 November games for the Eagles.
• The UNDER is 14-5 in the past 19 at home for the Eagles.
• The UNDER is 7-1 in the past eight for the Eagles as a home fave.

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