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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
Dec. 5, 2021
Joe Hedrick
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Week 13 NFL Picks & Predictions

Games Scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) are heavy road favorites in their week 13 matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (5-6). Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Mercedes Benz Stadium and can be viewed on FOX.

Score Prediction

Buccaneers 34, Falcons 17

Best Bets

Buccaneers -10.5 (-106) at FanDuel

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions

The Buccaneers head into Atlanta atop the NFC south, three games ahead of the second place Falcons. Atlanta is right in the mix for a wild card spot while Tampa Bay is just one game behind the Arizona Cardinals for the lead in the NFC. The first matchup between these two teams took place in week two. Tampa Bay took care of business at home, winning 48-25.

For an 8-3 team, the Buccaneers are by no means perfect and have struggled to cover on the road this season. They are currently 1-5 covering the spread as the away team. The Falcons are the same when it comes to covering at home, with a 1-4 ATS home record. Buccaneers' wide receiver Antonio Brown will not play as he is expected to miss at least two more weeks. The Falcons will still be without wide receiver Calvin Ridley who has been out since Halloween working on his mental health.

Even with no Antonio Brown and struggling to cover on the road this season, I think this game will be dominated by the Buccaneers. Their offense is just too powerful for this Falcons team that has only beaten opponents with below .500 records.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds




Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Resources

  • Matchup: NFC South
  • Date: Sunday, December 5, 2021
  • Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
  • Location: Atlanta, Georgia
  • TV-Time: FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET

Week 13 NFL Picks & Predictions

Games Scheduled for 4:00 p.m. through 8:20 p.m. ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-3
  • ATS: 5-6
  • O/U: 6-5
  • ATS - Home: 4-1
  • ATS - Away: 1-5

Tampa Bay is coming off of a hard fought 38-31 win + cover in Indianapolis. Prior to that win, the Bucs were 0-5 ATS on the road. While that may be a bit concerning for gamblers, I expect them to sharpen up on the road as they will not take the rest of the season lightly. They’re currently tied with Green Bay for second place in the NFC, just one game behind the first place Arizona Cardinals. It’s no secret that 44- year-old Tom Brady would love a first-round bye in the playoffs.

The Buccaneers offense continues to thrive. Averaging 305.9 YPG passing (1st), 31.5 PPG (1st), and 401.7 total YPG (3rd). They rank 23 rd in rushing yards per game at 95.8, this is due to the fact that they just don’t run the ball much, averaging just 22 carries per game. I wouldn’t expect their game plan to be any different on Sunday.

The Bucs defense is allowing 328.5 YPG (8th), 247.5 passing YPG (22nd), 81 rushing YPG (1st), and 23 PPG (17th). They should focus mainly on the pass defense this weekend as the Falcons are averaging 85 rush yards per game (30th). In their first meeting week two, the Bucs defense was able to intercept Matt Ryan(QB) three times while Brady threw for five TD’s/zero INT’s. Look for the Bucs defense to try and replicate that turnover differential again.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 5-6
  • ATS: 5-6
  • O/U: 5-6
  • ATS - Home: 1-4
  • ATS - Away: 4-2

Atlanta is 5-6 and second in the NFC south division. The catch here is that their five wins come against teams with a below .500 record. They have faced only three teams who currently have an above .500 record, and got crushed in every one of those games. These games include week two against the Buccaneers (48-25), week 10 against the Cowboys (43-3), and week 11 against the Patriots (25-0).

The Falcons offense ranks very poorly among the rest of the league. They rank 26th in YPG (310), 19th in passing YPG (225.5), 30th in rush YPG (85), and 27th in points per game (18.1) The Falcons will have no choice but to throw the ball as Tampa Bay ranks first in rushing yards allowed per game, while Atlanta averages just 85 yards per game on the ground. With Ridley still having no set return date, expectKyle Pitts (TE) and Cordarrelle Patterson (RB) to continue to get most of the targets.

Unfortunately for Atlanta, the defense doesn't rank much better than the offense. They are allowing 361 YPG (22nd), 236.9 passing YPG (14th), 124.9 rushing YPG (23rd), and 27.5 points per game (31st). The Falcons will need to create turnovers if they want a chance in this one. This has not been their strong suit thus far, as they have only forced 11 total turnovers this year (5 interceptions, 6 fumbles).


Tampa Bay has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six road games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Record: 8-3
  • Division Standing: 1st - NFC South
  • Points Scored: 347
  • Points Allowed: 253
  • PS/G: 31.5 (1st)
  • PA/G: 23 (15th)
>

Inside the Stats - Atlanta Falcons

  • Record: 5-6
  • Division Standing: 2nd - NFC South
  • Points Scored: 199
  • Points Allowed: 302
  • PS/G: 18.1 (27th)
  • PA/G: 27.5 (31st)

Key Players to Watch

  • TMB: Tom Brady - QB (309/457, 3,403 yards, 30 TD, 9 INT)
  • TMB: Mike Evans - WR (50 catches, 695 yards, 10 TD)
  • ATL: Matt Ryan - QB (256/379, 2,617 yards, 16 TD, 11 INT)
  • ATL: Cordarelle Patterson - RB (93 carries, 911 all-purpose yards, 9 Total TDs)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Conclusion

Despite the Buccaneers struggles to cover on the road, I like them at –11 in this game. They have far too many weapons on offense for the Falcons to handle for four quarters. Including Buccaneer’s Mike Evans (WR) and Rob Gronkowski (TE) who should have plenty of looks on Sunday.

Atlanta’s lack of ability to hang with good teams this year also does not help their case. In the three games against teams above .500 the Falcons were outscored 116-28. On the season they have been outscored 302-199 for a point differential of –103. That should be even worst after this weekend. Backing Brady and the Bucs in this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

  • Atlanta has lost six straight home games.
  • Atlanta has gone OVER the point total in seven straight games when facing Tampa Bay.
  • Tampa Bay has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven road games when playing as the favorite.

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