New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Dec. 6, 2021

Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The 13th week of regular-season NFL action will conclude on Monday night with a heavyweight AFC East bout between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Bills 27, Patriots 20

Best Bets

Bills -3 (-105) at DraftKings

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions

After winning the AFC East with a record of 13-3 last year, Buffalo managed to keep that same ball rolling through the start of this season, as the Bills opened with wins in four of their first five games – with all four of those victories coming by a double-digit margin.

Buffalo has looked rather pedestrian since starting 4-1 though, considering the Bills enter Monday’s contest riding a casual 3-3 run – despite being favored by six points or more in all six of those matchups.

On the other hand, New England stumbled out to a disappointing start with rookie Mac Jones under center, as the Patriots kicked off the season with losses in four of their first six games – with New England’s only victories across that stretch coming against the Jets and Texans.

The Patriots eventually settled into a rhythm in mid-October though, as New England now enters Week 13 riding a six-game winning streak – which includes solid victories over the Chargers, Browns, and Titans.

I’ll lay the points with the Bills here, as Buffalo’s offense ranks 2nd in the league in scoring and 5th in total offense (29.6 PPG, 389.3 YPG) – and despite the Patriots averaging a lofty 35.2 PPG across their current six-game winning streak, New England has only scored 30+ PTS in three matchups this year.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

The Bills enter Monday night’s contest as three-point favorites over the visiting Patriots – marking the first time New England has been an underdog since visiting the Chargers in Week 8.

The total for Monday’s contest is currently stationed near OU 42 at most shops, which marks the lowest over-under set for a Bills’ game so far this season.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Resources

• Matchup: AFC East
• Date: Monday, December 6, 2021
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, New York
• TV-Time: ESPN - 8:15 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report
• Super Bowl 56 Betting

New England Patriots Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 8-4
• ATS: 8-4
• O/U: 6-6
• ATS - Home: 4-3
• ATS - Away: 4-1

After drafting Jones in the first round of the latest draft, New England’s offense struggled miserably to kick off the season, as the Patriots generated just 17.8 PPG on roughly 311 YPG across the first four weeks of their new signal-caller’s tenure.

New England has dramatically stepped up its game since Week 4 though, considering the Patriots have now won seven of their last eight games – while posting lofty averages of 33.1 PPG on 377.1 YPG across that timeframe.

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 7-4
• ATS: 7-4
• O/U: 5-6
• ATS - Home: 3-2
• ATS - Away: 4-2

After dropping their season-opener to Pittsburgh (L, 23-16), the oddsmakers veered away from the Bills’ bandwagon ahead of Week 2, as Buffalo traveled to Miami favored by just a field goal – and then thumped the Dolphins by 35 PTS.

The oddsmakers seem somewhat reluctant to make a similar mistake though, considering Buffalo has been tagged as favorites of six points or more in eight of the last nine games – and rightfully so, considering all seven of the Bills’ victories this year have come by 15+ PTS.

The Bills are 10-2 SU in their last 12 home games as they host the Patriots. (AP)

Inside the Stats - New England Patriots

• Record: 8-4
• Division Standing: 1st - AFC East
• Points Scored: 336
• Points Allowed: 190
• PS/G: 28 (7th)
• PA/G: 15.8 (1st)

Inside the Stats - Buffalo Bills

• Record: 7-4
• Division Standing: 2nd - AFC East
• Points Scored: 326
• Points Allowed: 186
• PS/G: 29.6 (2nd)
• PA/G: 16.5 (2nd)

Key Players to Watch

• NWE: Mac Jones - QB (70.3% CMP, 2,850 YDS, 16 TD, 8 INT)
• NWE: Jakobi Meyers - WR (59 REC, 620 YDS, 1 TD)
• BUF: Josh Allen - QB (66.8% CMP, 3,071 YDS, 25 TD, 10 INT)
• BUF: Stefon Diggs - WR (67 REC, 847 YDS, 7 TD)

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Conclusion

After extending their winning streak to six games last week, the Patriots will travel to Buffalo as three-point underdogs against the Bills at Highmark Stadium – marking the first time New England has been an underdog since Week 8.

I’ll lay the points with the Bills here, as despite the Patriots’ impressive six-game winning streak, Buffalo still strikes me as the far more talented team in this Monday’s matchup – especially on the offensive side of the script.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

• The Patriots are 6-0 ATS across their last six games.
• The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight Patriots' games.
• The Bills are 10-2 SU in their last 10 home games.
• The Patriots are 5-0 SU in their last five road games

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