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Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Predictions, Odds, Picks

Daniel Dobish
Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
Dec. 26, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Buffalo Bills (8-6) and the New England Patriots (9-5) hook up for a huge NFC East game at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. on Sunday in Week 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m., and the game can be viewed on CBS.

Score Prediction

Bills 22, Patriots 18

Best Bets

Bills +115 ML at DraftKings

Bills +2.5 (-110) at DraftKings

UNDER 43.5 (-115) at DraftKings

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Predictions

These teams just met in Week 13 on a Monday night in western New York, and it was an icy, blustering and very windy evening. The winds were so bad that the kicking game was heavily impacted, and the pass game was also affected greatly. In fact, head coach Bill Belichick kept the ball on the ground for nearly the entire game, as QB Mac Jones passed the ball just three times for the entire game. In the end, after unlocking the combination to the zany weather, the Patriots were rewarded with the 14-10 road win, the cover, and, more importantly, the keys to the penthouse in the AFC East Division.

That loss at home to the Patriots served as a wake-up call to the Bills. Yes, fell the following week in Tampa by a 33-27 score in overtime, but Buffalo fought back and looked championship-like at stretches of the second half, giving the defending champs all they could handle. They then took care of the beleaguered Carolina Panthers by a 31-14 score, dusting a bad team at home, like a good team should. Now, they're right back in position to take over the first-place spot the Patriots have been keeping warm for a couple of weeks. All they need to do is pick up the road win, and a little revenge. After seeing New England lose 27-17 at Indianapolis last Saturday following a bye, and seeing Buffalo's offense rejuvenated the past two weeks, I think Buffalo is back.

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds

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Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC East
  • Date: Sunday, December 26, 2021
  • Venue: Gillette Stadium
  • Location: Foxboro, Massachusetts
  • TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-6
  • ATS: 7-6-1
  • O/U: 7-7
  • ATS - Away: 4-3

The Bills started out with a stunning loss at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, but bounced back for four straight wins with 35 or more points scored in each, and looked like the championship-caliber team we thought they were before the season. Even a narrow loss at Tennessee could be excused in Week 6, as two AFC titans battled to a three-point game, with Buffalo just coming up short. Doubt started to creep in about the viability of the Bills on Nov. 7, when they inexplicably lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road by a 9-6 score as 14.5-point favorites. After a 41-15 pounding from the Indianapolis Colts at Highmark Stadium, the Bills were really in a tailspin, going 2-3 SU/1-3-1 ATS in a five-game stretch from Weeks 6 through 11.

Order was restored a little on Thanksgiving Night, as the Bills rolled the Saints 31-6 in the Big Easy, easily covering a seven-point spread. But then after a bye, the Bills lost in the wintry conditions to the Pats, and fell to the Bucs. Suddenly, a team we expected to be challenging for a Super Bowl was just one game over .500, and 'in the hunt' for a playoff spot, not clearly in the clubhouse with one of the seven spots in the AFC. A win over the Panthers changed perceptions a little, but this is the game. If the Bills win, they're 9-6, and on top of the AFC East. If they lose, they're 8-7, and dropped into a sea of other teams barely over .500 looking to cling to the toilet bowl rim before the big flush of non-contenders.

Buffalo covered last week against Carolina. They haven't had back-to-back covers since Sept. 19-Oct. 10 when they went on a 4-0 ATS run. The OVER is 2-0 in the past two, following a 2-0 UNDER run, following a 2-0 OVER run, following a 2-0 UNDER run, following a 2-0 OVER run. It's been a unique trend for Buffalo totals over the past 10 games. So will we get another UNDER like we saw in Week 13?

New England Patriots Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-5
  • ATS: 9-5
  • O/U: 6-8
  • ATS - Home: 4-3

The Patriots had a down year last season, transitioning from the halcyon days of Tom Brady to the not-so-great days of Cam Newton for one season. The down season afforded the chance to draft Jones, and he looks like the long-term answer under center. And after scuffling in the first few games, going 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS, the Patriots suddenly have that look of contender again, much to the chagrin of everybody outside of New England who know how to pronounce their R's.

More importantly, the Patriots are back as a viable betting option. From Oct. 24 to that winter wonderland game on Dec. 6, the Patriots rattled off seven straight victories and covers, going from also-ran status to ut-oh, potential home-field advantage candidate. A little of the luster was lost in a 27-17 loss at Indianapolis last Saturday, as the Patriots were gouged for 226 rushing yards in the 10-point loss despite the fact they had 20 first downs to 15 for Indy. Penalties were also a concern for the Pats, committing an un-Belichick-like eight infractions with uncharacteristic disciplined play.

The Patriots head in with a 5-0 ATS mark in the past five as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in the past five divisional games, and 4-1 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning overall mark.


The Buffalo Bills have an impressive 4-1-2 ATS record in the past seven trips to Foxboro. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Buffalo Bills

  • Record: 8-6
  • Division Standing: 3-1
  • Points Scored: 394
  • Points Allowed: 243
  • PS/G: 28.1
  • PA/G: 17.4

Inside the Stats - New England Patriots

  • Record: 9-5
  • Division Standing: 3-1
  • Points Scored: 367
  • Points Allowed: 227
  • PS/G: 26.2
  • PA/G: 16.2

Key Players to Watch

  • BUF: Josh Allen - QB (344/528, 3,734 yards, 31 TD, 12 INT)
  • BUF: Stefon Diggs - WR (82 catches, 1,002 yards, 8 TD)
  • NWE: Damien Harris - RB (164 rushes, 764 yards, 9 TD)
  • NWE: Mac Jones - QB (296/429, 3,168 yards, 18 TD, 10 INT)

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Betting Conclusion

The Buffalo Bills will be without WR Cole Beasley this week, as he is on the reserve/COVID list as a non-vaccinated player. He joins notable players OL Jon Feliciano and DE A.J. Epenesa on the list. For the Patriots, the list is light, with just two players so far, but one is leading WR Kendrick Bourne, whose 45 catches, 667 yards and 14.8 yards per reception with five touchdowns would be missed.

This game figures to be another low-scoring game. And not because of the temperatures or the wind or ice, as it figures to actually be quite balmy at around 42 degrees with just a light wind in Foxboro. But we have the No. 1 and No. 3 defensive scoring units squaring off against each other, and it's likely we see a lot of ground-and-pound. New England especially figures to keep it on the ground, as that worked in the first meeting, and if Bourne is indeed ruled out, it will be missing its top weapon in the pass game. And Buffalo figures to try and duplicate the success Indy had last week against the New England front seven, running, running and then running some more. Of course, nobody is mistaking Devin Singletary for Jonathan Taylor, although Motor did have a solid 86 yards and a touchdown against Carolina last week.

I think Buffalo exacts a little revenge in this game, and it will be another low-scoring defensive slog.

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends

  • The Bills are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six AFC East games.
  • The Bills are 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams.
  • The Bills are 5-2 ATS in the past seven games as an underdog.
  • The Bills are 4-1-2 ATS in the past seven trips to Foxboro.
  • The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in the past eight games overall.
  • The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in the past five AFC East games.
  • The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in the past five home games.
  • The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in the past five games against winning teams.
  • The UNDER is 6-0 in the past six December games for the Patriots.
  • The UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven AFC East games for the Patriots.
  • The UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.

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Daniel Dobish

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish
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