New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Jan. 9, 2022

Joe Hedrick
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The New York Jets (4-12) will travel to take on the Buffalo Bills (10-6) in the final week of the regular season. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. at Highmark Stadium in Erie County located in Orchard Park, New York and can be viewed on CBS.

Score Prediction

Bills 31, Jets 17

Best Bets

Over 40.5 (-105) at DraftKings

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions

The New York Jets are coming off a tough loss to the Buccaneers, 28-24. With just over two minutes left to play the Jets went for it on fourth and two instead of kicking the field goal. Tom Brady then drove the ball 93 yards for the game winning score. While the Jets are still struggling to win football games, Zach Wilson has looked much better down the stretch. In his last four starts Wilson has thrown zero interceptions, a first for any Jets QB in their first season. Wilson has thrown just two TD’s during that span but looks much more comfortable in the pocket compared to the beginning of the season.

The Bills have already clinched a playoff spot but will look to win the AFC East with a win on Sunday. After struggling in the first half of last week's game, the Bills were able to turn things around and secure a 29-15 victory over the Falcons. Josh Allen had his worst outing of the year throwing for just 120 yards and three interceptions. The Bills were able to win the game rushing the ball with a season high of 233 total rushing yards. That makes it the fourth straight game the Bills have rushed for 100 yards. The Bills will look to continue to rush the ball against a Jets team allowing 136.3 rushing YPG (29th).

In the first meeting between the two teams the Bills won easily, 45-17. The Bills should get the W again this week, but 16.5 may be too much with the way the Jets have been playing down the stretch. At the same time, the Jets have not been consistent enough to trust quite yet. Unless the spread drops before kickoff I will be taking the over here.

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds

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New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Resources

• Matchup: AFC East
• Date: Sunday, January 9, 2022
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, New York
• TV-Time: CBS - 4:25 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report
• Super Bowl 56 Betting

New York Jets Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 4-12
• ATS: 6-10
• O/U: 10-6
• ATS - Away: 2-5

Although just 6-10 ATS on the season, the Jets have managed to cover in their last three matchups, and are 4-2 ATS in their last six games played. New York is 3-3 ATS when getting 10 points or more. The total has gone over in 10 of New Yorks 16 games and has gone over in four of their last five on the road. The Jets are 3-6 SU and ATS in the last nine games played in Buffalo.

New York’s offense has struggled but seems to be improving as the season progresses. This is a team that could see some success in the next year or so. Entering the final week, the Jets are averaging 322.2 total YPG (21st), 221 passing YPG (17th), 101.2 rushing YPG (25th), and 18.8 PPG (25th). The Jets will need to be careful protecting the football. New York has turned the ball over 27 times (30th) while Buffalo has created 30 turnovers (3rd).

The Jets defense has been a huge factor in their disappointing season. Ranking as one of the worst defenses in the league, New York is allowing 396 total YPG (32nd), 259.7 passing YPG (29th), 136.3 rushing YPG (29th), and 29.8 PPG (32nd). The Jets have forced just 14 turnovers on the season but will need to force one or two in order to keep this one close. Last week, Allen threw three interceptions and the team was still able to win by two scores. Giveaways and takeaways will be the difference maker for New York.

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 10-6
• ATS: 8-6-2
• O/U: 8-8
• ATS - Home: 3-3-2

Buffalo is 8-6-2 ATS on the season and 3-1-2 ATS when giving up more than 13 points. Buffalo is 12-3 SU in their last 15 games at home but just 1-2-2 ATS in their last five at home. The total has gone both under and over eight times but has gone under in four of the last six home games for the Bills. Buffalo has only played one game this season that has gone under 41 (current total) and that was a game against the Patriots where 40 total points were scored.

The Bills offense has been consistent throughout the year and ranks as one of the best in the league. On the season they are averaging 379.3 total YPG (5th), 251.9 passing YPG (10th), 127.4 rushing YPG (6th), and 28.5 PPG (3rd). With a chance to win the AFC East the Bills should come into this one with their foot on the gas, and Buffalo definitely has the capability to run away with this game. If Allen can get the passing game back on track and if the Bills can continue to see success with the running game, they should have no problems taking care of the Jets.

Buffalo’s defense has been a menace all season. Coming into this game they are allowing 286.5 total YPG (1st), 172.9 passing YPG (1st), 113.6 rushing YPG (19th), and 17.4 PPG (2nd). The Bills are 4-1-1 ATS against teams with a below .500 record with the only loss coming to the Jaguars, a game they lost straight up 9-6. Just like the offense, the defense also has the opportunity to have an absolute field day against this New York Jets team.

Buffalo has won three straight games when facing New York. (AP)

Inside the Stats - New York Jets

• Record: 4-12
• Division Standing: 4th - AFC East
• Points Scored: 300
• Points Allowed: 477
• PS/G: 18.8 (25th)
• PA/G: 29.8 (32nd)

Inside the Stats - Buffalo Bills

• Record: 10-6
• Division Standing: 1st - AFC East
• Points Scored: 456
• Points Allowed: 279
• PS/G: 28.5 (3rd)
• PA/G: 17.4 (2nd)

Key Players to Watch

• NYJ: Zach Wilson - QB (206/363, 2,247 yards, 8 TD, 11 INT)
• NYJ: Braxton Berrios - WR (46 catches, 431 yards, 2 TD)
• BUF: Josh Allen - QB (385/601, 4,168 yards, 40 Total TDs, 15 INT)
• BUF: Stefon Diggs - WR (94 catches, 1,144 yards, 9 TD)

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Conclusion

The Jets have nothing left to play for while the Bills have the opportunity to secure an opening round home game. Buffalo should have no problem winning this game but 16.5 is a lot to ask from any team. With that being said, the Jets could very easily get blown out in this one. For that reason, I am on the over. Cold and rainy conditions may slow the game down a bit but recent trends from both teams point towards the over 41.5.

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

• Buffalo has won three straight games when facing New York.
• New York has lost 35 of its last 37 games when playing as a +7-point underdog or more.
• New York has covered the spread in three straight games.
• New York has gone OVER the point total in four of its last five games.

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