NFL Week 1 Player Prop Bets

Stuart Durst Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top plays in Week 1 of the NFL for Sunday, September 11. Check out his prediction below, along with other VI Expert Picks!

NFL Week 1 Best Prop Bets

• Saquon Barkley (NYG) Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Saquon Barkley (NYG) Over 87.5 All-Purpose Yards (+100)
• Noah Brown (DAL) Over 2.5 Receptions (-150)

Saquon Barkley (NYG) Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Saquon Barkley is one of the players I have rostered the most in my pre-season Bestball/Fantasy drafts. I absolutely love the prospects that the dual-threat running back poses, and I’m hoping we finally get a nice and healthy season from the Penn State alum.

Plenty of people are scared of Barkley because of the injury history, but it is important to remember that his season ended early due to him stepping on someone else's foot, more of a freak injury than any sign of a pattern. Before he was hurt, his usage was finally peaking in weeks 3 & 4 last season where he recorded 220 yards and three touchdowns, looking much closer to his older self. 

Saquon seemingly has a tendency to rush back early from injuries, taking away his most important skills, explosiveness. He is a big play waiting to happen, and his abilities as both a running back, and as a receiver, make him an absolute weapon out the backfield. Since 2018, Barkley is second in the NFL with six 50+ yard TD rushes. Having all off-season to heal from these injuries is a huge plus, and starting the season healthy isn't something he’s been able to do recently. 

This rushing and receiving market may be my least favorite on the board, but I think it's more reasonable here with Saquon. When you choose to bet this market, the books will add an additional 3-4 yards to his combined rushing and receiving yardage total, normally making it more worth it to take them separately.

It's worth it to take props like this in situations where the player has enough upside to blast through either total, which I think is the case here. Not only is he the bell-cow running back on this team, I think you could argue he is also the wide receiver no. 1.

Saquon Barkley (NYG) Over 87.5 All-Purpose Yards (+100)

Kadarius Toney is seemingly good to suit up, and for my money's worth he’s probably the WR1 on this team. Due to missing most of training camp with a hamstring injury and “personal” reasons, I find it hard to believe he's going to be fully ingrained to this new offensive system.

Kenny Golladay has been a complete failure since suiting up with Giants, and it has been reported that he has been running “stiff routes” this offseason. Sterling Sheppard is attempting to rush back from an Achillies injury, and even if he does play, I doubt it's much.

Finally we have Darius Slayton, who seemingly just avoided being cut, and 5’7 rookie Wandale Robinson, who may carve out a niche role for himself on this team, but I doubt it comes to fruition Week 1.

The tight end room also consists of Daniel Bellinger and Tannder Hudson, whoever they are. The point of this whole thing is that no matter what the game script is, Barkley is going to play a huge role in the Giants offense.

Noah Brown (DAL) Over 2.5 Receptions (-150)

The biggest temptation I’m trying to resist in Week 1 is betting all of these WR2’s that suddenly have lots of volume, but not much name value to back it up. With Gallup and Washington missing the start of the season, this team is left with a very thin receiving core of Ceedee Lamb, Noah Brown, and rookie Jalen Tolbert.

The depth chart has Brown officially listed as the WR2, over Tolbert who struggled in camp. Brown only started one game last season, where he had six catches for 53 yards on nine targets, and he worked as the WR3 behind Gallup and Wilson in that game.

Brown had a great camp, with beat writers speculating that he’s going to be second in WR snaps only behind Lamb, Dak also said, “Noah earned my trust from Day 1, and it's only gotten greater and greater,” discussing the relationship they formed in preseason. In a game they are likely trailing the Buccaneers, I think Brown sees 6+ targets once again.

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Stuart Durst

Stuart Durst, also known as @MonotoneFootbal on Twitter, is a writer and sports bettor specializing in the NFL, NBA and CFB. When he’s not writing for OddsChecker, he enjoys playing basketball and talking player props with his community. More from Stuart Durst