NFL Total Talk – Week 2
The 2022 National Football League regular season continues in Week 2, and if it's anything like the wild opening weekend, we're going to be in for a treat. As always, good luck with your total wagers in Week 2 and beyond.
If you were slamming UNDER plays in Week 1, you did pretty well for yourself. The UNDER went 11-5 in the opening week of action, including a perfect 3-0 in primetime action.
Thursday Night Football
L.A. Chargers at Kansas City: The Chargers grinded out a 24-19 win against the Las Vegas Raiders last week at SoFi Stadium as the UNDER comfortably covered. The Chargers, who were an offensive machine last season at times, managed just 76 rushing yards on 31 carries while posting 279 yards through the air. It also had 18 total first downs to 18 for the Raiders. Defense surprisingly ruled the day on the fast track in that AFC West battle.
The Chiefs didn't encounter a lot of defense and/or resistance in their opening game road win against the Arizona Cardinals. QB Patrick Mahomes hit four different received for a total of five passing touchdowns, as the Kansas City offense was as well-oiled machine in the desert. The defense did a good job against the Cards in the 44-21 win, with 14 of the points allowed coming in the fourth quarter.
Last season, the OVER cashed in the mid-December meeting between these teams in Los Angeles, while the UNDER narrowly cashed in the late September meeting in Arrowhead. The OVER is 3-1 in the past four meetings in Kansas City, though, and we had a total of 54 points last season against a number of 55, so it wasn't exactly a defensive slog.
The Bolts have cashed the OVER in four of their final five road games in 2021. The OVER is also 8-1 in the past nine overall for the Chiefs dating back to last season, while hitting in four of the past five as a home favorite, four of the past five against the AFC West and 18 of the past 25 in the month of September.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS vs. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING ODDS
Division Over-Under Notes
We had six divisional matchups in Week 1, with the UNDER going 5-1. In Week 2, we have five more divisional matchups, including a pair of primetime matchups.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Buccaneers were the only defense last week to not allow at least one touchdown, as Tampa Bay completely stymied Dallas 19-3 at Jerry World. Yes, QB Dak Prescott left that game early with a broken finger, but the Cowboys offense was garbage well before the ailment occurred, and a lot of the credit goes to the defense of the Bucs.
The Saints appeared to be on their way to a loss and an UNDER result last week, down 23-10 in Atlanta against the Falcons. But the Saints erupted for 17 points in a wild fourth-quarter comeback to win 27-26, and easily cash the OVER as a result.
The last time we saw these teams face each other, Tampa's D was on point then, too, pitching a shutout in a 9-0 win at the RayJay in mid-December. Of course, the first game on Halloween in the Big Easy was a 36-27 shootout in favor of the Saints under the roof. The UNDER is 3-1 in four meetings with QB Tom Brady as the starter for the Bucs.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS BETTING ODDS
Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The Week 1 bug struck the Colts again last week in Houston, but hey, at least they didn't lose. Indy tied Houston 20-20, unable to generate much offense in the extra session. OVER bettors never really had a chance, as the Colts entered the fourth quarter down 20-3, and it took a feverish rally by QB Matt Ryan to get them in position. PK Rodrigo Blankenship missed a 43-yard field goal in OT, but that wouldn't have flipped the total result anyway.
The Jaguars were up 22-14, and it appeared they would get their first Week 1 win since Sept. 13, 2020, when they upended Indianapolis. Jacksonville cashed the OVER in the 28-22 loss in Washington, though.
In this series, the UNDER has cashed in three consecutive meetings, while going 6-4 across the past 10 meetings overall. Oddly enough, during the past 10 meetings, Jacksonville has posted a pair of shutouts, and the losing team in this series has scored 20 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings, and nine of the past 10 overall.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS BETTING ODDS
Seattle at San Francisco: The Seahawks grinded out a 17-16 win over the Denver Broncos on Monday night in Seattle, cashing the UNDER. Meanwhile, the 49ers were on the short end of a 19-10 score in soggy Chicago, as the UNDER also easily cashed.
When these teams have faced each other in the past, we have had fireworks, with the OVER going 6-1-1 across the past eight in the series since Dec. 2018. However, a majority of those games were with QB Jimmy Garoppolo starting for the Niners, and QB Russell Wilson under center for the 'Hawks. Wilson is gone, and it's now the QB Trey Lance show in Frisco.
The Niners might be inclined to go more to the air in this one, as opposed to Week 1, as conditions should be drier, and San Francisco lost starting RB Elijah Mitchell to a knee injury, leaving the cupboard a little bare in the backfield, so that's something to watch. The Seahawks allowed 1,106 receiving yards to opposing running backs, most in the NFL, so if replacement RB Jeff Wilson Jr. has an impact, it might be catching the ball. Seattle allowed 11 catches and 65 yards to Denver's Javonte Williams, so it doesn't appear anything is going to change in Seattle's defensive scheme vs. RBs anytime soon.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS vs. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS BETTING ODDS
Conference Angles
We had three matchups pitting conference teams against each other on the Week 1 slate, and the UNDER ended up going 2-1. In Week 2, we have nine conference matchups, including a pair of primetime contests.
Miami at Baltimore: The Miami Dolphins made a lot of headlines in the offseason, particularly due to the splash it made with the trade for WR Tyreek Hill. But in Week 1, the defense stole the show, as the team posted a 20-7 victory while allowing just 78 yards on the ground and 193 yards through the air. Miami was also a plus-3 in the turnover department, which helps.
The UNDER easily cashed in Miami's game, and Baltimore did the same against another AFC East foe, the New York Jets. Gang Green was forced to start QB Joe Flacco, the former Raven, as QB Zach Wilson continues to recover from arthroscopic knee surgery done last month. As you can expect, New York's offense was a train wreck, and Baltimore allowed just nine points for the UNDER result.
For Miami, it closed on a 5-0 UNDER run in its final five road games last season, and the UNDER is 8-3 in the past 11 games overall. The UNDER is also 8-2 in the past games in the month of September, while going 8-2 in the past 10 following a straight-up win.
Baltimore is also on an UNDER kick lately, going 7-3 in the past 10 games overall dating back to last season, while cashing the UNDER in six in a row when favored.
MIAMI DOLPHINS vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS BETTING ODDS
N.Y. Jets at Cleveland: The aforementioned Jets cobbled together just nine points and 83 yards on the ground last week vs. BAL. Yes, the Jets did end up with 295 passing yards, but a lot of those came late in the game with things already decided, and Baltimore in more of a prevent defense, including the team's only touchdown with exactly one minute left in regulation to cut the lead to 24-9, the game's final score.
Unlike the Jets, the Browns cashed the OVER in Week 1, outlasting the Carolina Panthers 26-24 in Charlotte. The run game picked up right where it left off, as the Browns gashed the Panthers for 217 yards on 39 carries, while managing just 138 yards through the air. New York run defense, be ready!
The UNDER is 5-0 in the past five September games for the Jets, while going 4-1 in the past five on a grass surface. The UNDER is also 4-0 in New York's past four meetings against Cleveland. The UNDER is also 5-1 in Cleveland's past six games at home, while going 5-1 in the past six when favored, too.
NEW YORK JETS vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS BETTING ODDS
Washington at Detroit: The UNDER went 11-5 across the NFL in Week 1, but these teams weren't having any of it. In fact, this is the only Week 2 matchup featuring two teams which hit the OVER in Week 1.
Washington outlasted the Jacksonville Jaguars by a 28-22 count to hit the OVER, as QB Carson Wentz had a successful debut with four touchdown strikes. Meanwhile, the boys in Honolulu Blue and Silver were topped by the visiting Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 in the highest-scoring game of Week 1. In fact, only the Kansas City-Arizona game (65 total points), with Washington's game with 50 points tied with Cleveland-Carolina for the third-most total points.
Despite the OVER last week, the UNDER is still 9-4 in the past 13 games overall for Washington. Of course, this offense looked completely different with Wentz under center. But, it was also facing the lowly Jaguars, too.
The OVER is 5-2 in Detroit's past seven games overall, while going 4-1 in the past five on a field-turf surface and 17-7 in the past 24 overall at Ford Field.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS vs. DETROIT LIONS BETTING ODDS
Carolina at N.Y. Giants: The Panthers fell behind by 14 points midway through the second quarter, and it looked like the same ol' Carolina offense. But down 20-8 heading into the fourth quarter, new QB Baker Mayfield and the offense rallied, taking a 24-23 lead late before falling on a 58-yard field goal with :08 left. The OVER cashed with six minutes to go in regulation.
Speaking of things not looking like the past, the Giants went on the road and topped the Tennessee Titans in head coach Brian Daboll's debut. Down 20-13 late, the team elected to go for two on a late touchdown, converted, and led 21-20. The Titans blew a field goal at the buzzer to win it. That field goal, if good, would've made the total go OVER by a half-point at most shops. Or, if Daboll didn't go for two, instead opting for potential OT, tied 20-20, the game had a chance to go OVER. It was close, but officially, it went UNDER.
The Panthers have hit the OVER in four of the past five games on the road, while the UNDER is a whopping 20-5-1 in the past 26 games overall for the G-Men, 12-1 in the past 13 against teams with a record under .500, and 18-7-1 in the past 26 at the Meadowlands. These teams met last season, too, and New York won 25-3 in this same venue for an easy UNDER.
CAROLINA PANTHERS vs. NEW YORK GIANTS BETTING ODDS
New England at Pittsburgh: The Patriots offense looked lost in the heat and humidity of South Florida, losing and cashing the UNDER against the Dolphins for the second straight regular-season opener. New England is on the road for a second consecutive game, looking to get on track against a Steelers team which had a surprise for the defending AFC champs.
The Steelers won 23-20 in overtime at Cincinnati, stealing a game despite the fact the offense managed just 75 rushing yards and 192 passing yards. Watch the health of RB Najee Harris this week, too. He exited with a foot injury, although head coach Mike Tomlin is optimistic Harris will be ready in Week 2. But the bad news is that the team lost tackle machine T.J. Watt to a torn pectoral muscle, and he is out indefinitely.
Both of these teams hit the UNDER last week, and neither team looked terribly good on offense.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS BETTING ODDS
Atlanta at L.A. Rams: The Falcons frittered away a 26-10 lead with just over 11 minutes to go in regulation, falling 27-26 to the Saints as the OVER connected. Hey, at least it wasn't the Super Bowl.
Speaking of the Super Bowl, the defending champ Rams lost in what some think was a Super Bowl preview. The Buffalo Bills came to town and waxed the current belt holders by a 31-10 score as the UNDER cashed.
The UNDER hit in four of the final five games on the road for the Falcons to close out last season, and it remains to be seen if the team will have a more powerful offense with QB Marcus Mariota taking the reins from Ryan. The Rams have hit the UNDER in 21 of the past 28 games at home, while going 28-10-1 in the past 39 as a favorite, and 19-7 in the past 26 as a home favorite.
ATLANTA FALCONS vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS BETTING ODDS
Houston at Denver: The Texans managed a 20-20 tie against the Colts, an UNDER result. Not many were surprised to see Houston's offense struggle. The UNDER is 6-1 in Houston's past seven road games, while going 6-1 in the past seven following an ATS win, too. In addition, the UNDER is 5-1-1 in the past seven in Week 2, for whatever that's worth.
The Broncos struggled on Monday night in Seattle, falling 17-16 as the UNDER easily hit. The field goal game was on point, but the red-zone offense and late clock management was an absolute joke, especially if you were holding an OVER ticket.
HOUSTON TEXANS vs. DENVER BRONCOS BETTING ODDS
Non-Conference Angles
The Week 1 slate featured six AFC vs. NFC battles, including the Thursday night and Monday night games. The OVER-UNDER split 3-3 in those contests.
In Week 2 we have two AFC-NFC matchups, both featured in the late window on Sunday.
Cincinnati at Dallas: The Bengals were absolutely atrocious in Week 1, particularly QB Joe Burrow. He had four interceptions and a fumble lost, and to make matters worse, the kicking game was a problem spot, too. The UNDER cashed in the 23-20 overtime loss, but not without some heart problems. UNDER bettors were feeling good as Cincinnati scored with zeroes left in regulation. It just needed an extra point to win 21-20, but PK Evan McPherson had his attempt blocked, forcing OT.
Did I say atrocious? That might be too nice for the performance of Dallas in Week 1. The Pokes lost 19-3 to the Buccaneers at Jerry World, and they lost Prescott to a thumb injury. Dallas managed just 71 rushing yards and 173 passing yards.
The UNDER has cashed in six straight for the Bengals, while going 4-0 in the past four as an underdog, too. The UNDER is 20-7-2 in the past 29 road games for Cincinnati, too. For the Cowboys, the UNDER is 10-3 in the past 13 dating back to last season, while hitting in five of the past seven games at home.
CINCINNATI BENGALS vs. DALLAS COWBOYS BETTING ODDS
Arizona at Las Vegas: The Cardinals, like many others in the past, had no answers for Mahomes. Arizona's pass defense was horrific, and the offense couldn't do anything until late in the game. Still, Arizona was one of a handful of teams to see the OVER cash in Week 1.
The Raiders never really threatened the OVER in their game with the Chargers, falling 24-19 on a total of 52.5. Vegas failed to run the ball, going for 64 yards on 13 totes, while QB Derek Carr posted three interceptions.
Against AFC teams, Arizona hit the UNDER at a 4-1 clip, although again, last week was an OVER. The UNDER was 3-2 in five games for the Raiders against NFC teams in 2021, too.
ARIZONA CARDINALS vs. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS BETTING ODDS
Primetime Notes
The UNDER went a perfect 3-0 in the Week 1 primetime games, including the only team not to score at least one touchdown. The UNDER produced at a 25-19-1 (56.9%) clip in 46 primetime games during the 2021 regular season.
Sunday Night Football Notes
Chicago at Green Bay: The Bears might have received some help from the rain last week, as a slow track helped them in a 19-10 win at Soldier Field against the 49ers as the UNDER easily connected. In fact, the Bears game was the third-lowest scoring game in the NFL in Week 1.
The Packers were one of just four NFL teams to score in single digits, and the seven points it scored last week was tied for second-lowest. Green Bay could get well against Chicago, as it has scored 45, 24, 45 and 41 in the past four meetings with the Bears, cashing the OVER at a 3-1 clip during the span.
The OVER is 4-0 in Chicago's past four as a road 'dog, while going 4-1 in the past five overall on the road. The Packers have cashed the OVER in five of the past seven as a favorite, and 4-1 in the past five vs. NFC North, although that lone UNDER was last week's debacle in Minnesota.
CHICAGO BEARS vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS BETTING ODDS
Monday Night Football Notes
Tennessee at Buffalo: The Bills are being touted as a Super Bowl favorite, and so far, so good. QB Josh Allen and the Bills put it on the defending champ Rams 31-10 at SoFi last Thursday as the UNDER hit, and have had a few extra days to rest.
The Titans cashed the UNDER in a 21-20 loss at home against the Giants. Some crazy circumstances at the end of the game led to the UNDER cashing, including a missed field goal at the buzzer by Tennessee which would've sent it OVER.
The UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven games overall dating back to last season, although the OVER is 12-3 in the past 15 on the road for Tennessee. The OVER is 5-1 in the past six Monday Night appearances for the Titans, too.
For the Bills, the UNDER is 9-4 in the past 13 games in the month of September, while going 5-2 in the past seven as a favorite.
TENNESSEE TITANS vs. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING ODDS
Minnesota at Philadelphia: The Vikings looked like a different team last week, roughing up the Packers 23-7. The defense really clamped down on QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers pass offense, and Minnesota will now try to toss a blanket on QB Jalen Hurts.
Hurts and the Eagles offense was strong against another NFC North team, the Lions, winning 38-35 in the highest scoring game of Week 1 as the OVER easily connected.
The OVER is 9-2 in the past 11 road games for the Vikings, while going 4-0 in the past four as an underdog. The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six appearances on a Monday night, however. For the Eagles, the OVER has hit in five in a row at home, while going 4-1 in the past five as a favorite. The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five on MNF, though.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS vs. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES BETTING ODDS
Fearless Predictions
Last week's predictions were a success, going 3-1 (+225), including a win on the 3-team teaser. Let's continue to keep going good, building that bankroll for Week 2 and down the stretch toward Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona on Feb. 12, 2023.
- Best Over: OVER 44.5 Buccaneers at Saints
- Best Under: UNDER 46.5 Colts at Jaguars
- Best First-Half Total: OVER 24.5 Commanders at Lions
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
- OVER 37.5 Buccaneers at Saints
- UNDER 50.5 Bengals at Cowboys
- UNDER 58.5 Vikings at Eagles
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