Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Week 3 of the NFL season continues Sunday afternoon as the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots each vie for their second win of the 2022 season in an AFC showdown at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts on Sunday. Coverage begins at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Updated on 11/21/2024

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BALTIMORE RAVENS vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING PREDICTION

The Ravens and the Patriots each have a loss this season, and that loss came against the Miami Dolphins. The Ravens were bitten by QB Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins in Charm City last week, blowing a 35-14 lead, eventually losing 42-38 after a miraculous fourth-quarter comeback by Miami. The Patriots were roughed up in Week 1 down in South Florida by the Fins, 20-7. So the teams each have that in common. However, the commonalities between these teams are really few and far between.

Baltimore is averaging 31.0 PPG on offense through two outings. Last week the Ravens ran for 155 yards and threw for 318 more, while also getting a touchdown via a kickoff return to start Week 2's game. More impressive, Baltimore had a well disciplined game, committing just one penalty for five yards. Unfortunately, the secondary is banged up, it lost CB Kyle Fuller to a season-ending knee injury in Week 1, and Baltimore is just reeling defensively.

New England's area of strength is on the defensive side of the ball. The offense has produced a paltry 24 total points through two games, and that's simply not going to cut it dealing with the likes of Tua and the Dolphins, and Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, in the AFC East. Defensively, the Pats have allowed just 17.0 PPG, and cashed the UNDER in each outing to date.

Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Patriots 16
Best Bet: Ravens -2.5 (-115)
Best Bet: UNDER 44.5 (-110)

BALTIMORE RAVENS vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING ODDS

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BALTIMORE RAVENS vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022
Matchup: AFC North vs. AFC East
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Location: Foxboro, Massachusetts
Time-TV: CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET

BALTIMORE RAVENS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Ravens are going giant things on offense, but the defense is holding this team back. Baltimore is 12th in the NFL in total yards (373.5), 9th in passing yards (264.5) and 5th in points scored (31.0) per game. The Ravens have rushed for 109.0 yards per game to rank 18th in the league.

On defense, though, Baltimore is dead-last with 463.5 total yards and 379.0 passing yards per game allowed. The Ravens are strong against the run, yielding just 84.5 rushing yards per contest, but that's because teams are choosing to go up top where they have more success through the air.

Baltimore doesn't stay down long, and a loss is usually followed up by good things. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in the past four following a non-cover, and 7-3 ATS in the next game following a straight-up loss.

For totals, while the defense flat-lined against the Dolphins last week, the OVER-UNDER is 1-1 this season. The UNDER is actually 12-4 in Baltimore's past 16 games on the road.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ANALYSIS

The Patriots have had a sluggish offense to this point, while playing tremendous defense to give them a chance to win, not pretty, but rather ugly. In the NFL, wins are wins, and it doesn't matter how you get it done.

For bettors, they love seeing the Pats at home. They're 4-1 ATS in the past five games at home, but just 0-3-1 ATS in the past four games overall, and 0-3-1 ATS in the past four against AFC teams, too. In the month of September, New England is just 1-3-1 ATS in the past five, including 0-1-1 ATS to date this season.

On totals, the OVER is 6-0 in the past six home games for the Patriots. They haven't been home yet this season, and the UNDER is 2-0 so far. The OVER streak at home will really be put to the test in Week 3. The OVER is also 9-4 in the past 13 for New England against AFC foes. However, the UNDER is 5-0 in the past five games in the month of September, while going 11-5 in the past 16 following a straight-up victory. The lean here is to the UNDER, for sure.

BALTIMORE RAVENS vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING TRENDS

• Ravens are 4-0 ATS in the past four after a non-cover
• Ravens are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 after a SU loss
• Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in the past four games overall
• Patriots are 4-1 ATS in the past four home games
• Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in the past four vs. AFC
• UNDER is 12-4 in the past 16 road games for the Ravens
• OVER is 6-0 in the past six home games for the Patriots
• OVER is 9-4 in the past 13 vs. AFC for the Patriots
• UNDER is 5-0 in the past five September games for the Patriots.
• Underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the pats 10 meetings
• OVER is 4-1 in the past five meetings

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Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish