Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Week 3 of the NFL season continues Sunday afternoon as the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins square off in an AFC East matchup at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Coverage begins at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

Updated on 11/21/2024

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BUFFALO BILLS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING PREDICTION

The Bills were expected to be here. Buffalo entered with the shortest Super Bowl odds in the AFC, and seeing the Bills are 2-0 isn't a huge shock. It's HOW the Bills have made it to this point which is a little surprising.

Buffalo whipped the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams by a 31-10 score in their crib, covering as 1-point favorites as the UNDER connected. Perhaps the Rams were just having a little bit of a hangover, so the Tennessee Titans would put up a much bigger fight in Week 2, right? Wrong. The Bills and Titans were tied 7-7 after the first quarter, and it looked like we were going to have a game. Then, it looked like the Bills dipped themselves in butter heading into the second half, as the Titans could no longer tackle or cover anybody, and it appears the Titans had five players on defense.

QB Josh Allen had his way, throwing for 317 yards with four touchdowns, hooking up with WR Stefon Diggs 12 times for 148 yards and three of those four scoring strikes. The Miami secondary has been shaking, and the pass defense as a whole ranks 25th with 255.5 yards per game allowed through two outings. That will be the biggest matchup to watch.

The Dolphins got off to a terrible start in Baltimore in Week 2, as WR/KR Devin Duvernay ripped off a 103-yard touchdown just 13 seconds into the game. The Ravens piled up a 28-7 lead at halftime, and a 35-14 lead heading into the fourth quarter. So how are the Dolphins 2-0, too?

Well, QB Tua Tagovailoa tossed four of his six touchdown passes in the fourth quarter, leading a miraculous comeback to win 42-38. Tua became the second-youngest player to throw for at least 450 yards and six touchdowns since 1950, with only Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes accomplishing the feat at a younger age. Tua also joined Hall of Fame QBs Dan Marino and Bob Griese as the only players in franchise history to throw for at least six touchdowns in a single game.

Is the addition of WR Tyreek Hill that big of a deal, able to get the Fins over the hump? Hill and WR Jaylen Waddle have created matchup problems for everyone. Or is this a measuring-stick game where we'll find out just how Miami still has to go? I mean, I don't know if you heard, but Miami has the Dolphins, the greatest football team. They're in the air, they're on the ground, like no one's ever seen.

Score Prediction: Bills 34, Dolphins 27
Best Bet: Bills -5 (-108)
Best Bet: OVER 52.5 (-105)

BUFFALO BILLS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING ODDS

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BUFFALO BILLS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022
Matchup: AFC East
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
Time-TV: CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET

BUFFALO BILLS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Bills offense has been everything as advertised, leading the NFL with 36.0 PPG, while ranking third in total yards (413.5), fourth in passing yards (302.5) and a respectable 15th in rushing yards per game (111.0). While the Buffalo offense gets all of the headlines, the defense has been just as good, if not even more nasty. The Bills have yielded just 215.0 yards per game, 149.0 passing yards per game and 8.5 PPG to rank second in the NFL in each of the categories. They're also No. 1 in rushing yards allowed (66.0).

Buffalo looks to stay hot against the number, as it is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight games overall, and 7-1-1 ATS in the previous nine games inside the AFC East Division. They're on fire, going 4-0 ATS in the past four games in the month of September, too. If you are looking to go the other way, the Bills are 0-4 ATS in the past four games on a grass surface.

For totals, the OVER is 10-2-1 in the past 13 games for the Bills on a grass surface, and Buffalo has hit the OVER in each of the past four against teams with a winning overall record. The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven Week 3 games for the Bills, too.

MIAMI DOLPHINS ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are 9-2-1 ATS in the past 12 games overall dating back to last season, while going 6-1 ATS in the past seven games at Hard Rock Stadium. Miami blasted New England in Week 1 for the cover in the home opener, while cashing the UNDER.

The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in the past seven games in the month of September, too, including the first two games this season. They're also 3-1-1 ATS in the past five against AFC East Division teams, while going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five games against teams with a winning overall record.

As far as totals are concerned, the UNDER has hit in eight of the past 11 games inside the division, while going 8-3 in the past 11 games in the month of September. However, the OVER has hit in 10 of the past 14 meetings between these rivals.

BUFFALO BILLS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING TRENDS

• Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight games overall
• Bills are 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine vs. AFC East
• Dolphins are 9-2-1 ATS in the past 12 games overall
• Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in the past seven home games
• Dolphins are 3-1-1 ATS in the past five vs. AFC East
• OVER is 4-0 in the past four vs. winning teams for the Bills
• OVER is 10-2-1 in the past 13 on a grass surface for the Bills
• UNDER is 8-3 in the past 11 vs. AFC teams for the Dolphins
• OVER is 7-3 in the past 10 vs. winning teams for the Dolphins
• Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings
• OVER is 10-4 in the past 14 meetings

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Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish