New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Week 4 of the NFL season will resume on Sunday mid-afternoon with what’s expected to be a lopsided non-conference matchup between the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers. Coverage begins from Lambeau Field in Green Bay at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.

Updated on 12/15/2024

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS BETTING PREDICTION

The Packers’ offense has looked rather pedestrian in their first three matchups following the departure of All-Pro wideout Davante Adams, as Aaron Rodgers and co. averaged just 16 PPG on 356 YPG and turned the ball over 5 times across a 2-1 split to open the season, consisting of solid victories over the Bears and Bucs, and a 16-point loss to the Vikings.

New England, on the other hand, also hasn’t been able to find an offensive rhythm to open the season, as the Patriots currently sit 1-2 and rank 25^th in the league in scoring after averaging just 16.7 PPG on 365 YPG across their first three matchups of the year; and to make things worse, second-year QB Mac Jones is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s contest with the high ankle sprain he suffered in last week’s loss to Baltimore.

Veteran QB Brian Hoyer will likely draw the start for New England in this contest, who’s most recent starts came against Kansas City in 2020 and Miami in 2019, which resulted in a 26-10 loss to the Chiefs and 16-12 loss to the Dolphins. However, I still think Bill Belichick can exploit the weaknesses within a Packers’ offense that’s scored 14 PTS or less in two-of-three matchups to open the season, so I’ll roll with the under here.

Score Prediction: Packers 23, Patriots 13
Best Bet: Under 40 (-110)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS BETTING ODDS

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022
Matchup: AFC East vs. NFC North
Venue: Lambeau Field
Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
Time-TV: CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING ANALYSIS

The end-result was ultimately disappointing, but overall, New England still played pretty well in Mac Jones’ rookie campaign under-center, as the Patriots’ offense finished the year ranked seventh in scoring and tenth in yardage per play in just their second campaign following the departure of Tom Brady (26.6 PPG, 5.7 YPP).

However, New England’s identity has always resided with its defense under Belichick, and things weren’t any different last season, as the Patriots’ defense finished the year ranked third in points allowed and seventh in total yardage (19.4 PPG, 320 YPG). However, their defensive identity needs to be even stronger the next few weeks as the Pats’ try steal a win or two while their QB recovers from an ankle injury.

GREEN BAY PACKERS BETTING ANALYSIS

Green Bay won the NFC North with a record of 13-4 last season, which narrowly edged Tampa Bay for the top seed in the conference. However, Rodgers’ second straight MVP campaign came to an abrupt halt in the Divisional Round, as the Packers went in cold after their first-round bye and fell to the Niners in a snowy slugfest at Lambeau Field (L, 13- 10).

The Packers traded away their top wideout this past offseason, which has depleted their receiving core to the ranks of Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, and rookie Romeo Doubs; and while the panic level remains low surrounding the shortcomings of Green Bay’s offense thus far, scoring 14 PTS or less in two-of-three matchups to open the season doesn’t give me enough confidence to lay 10 points with the Packers in a matchup against one of the greatest coaches of all time, despite having a far superior roster.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS BETTING TRENDS

• The Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• The Packers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games.
• The total has gone OVER in five of New England's last seven games.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of Green Bay's last five games.
• The Patriots are 1-4 SU in their last five games.
• The Packers are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games.
• The Patriots are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games against Green Bay.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of the Pats' last eight road games.
• The Packers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games.
• The total has gone UNDER in five of the last six matchups between the Pats and Packers.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson