NFL Total Talk – Week 5

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

17 minute read

The 2022 National Football League regular season heads into Week 4, or nearly the quarter pole of the 17-game season. We're starting to get a pretty good idea about teams, as far as offensive and defensive performance, and how that translates to OVER and UNDER results. After this fourth game for everyone, we'll really start to be able to hone in on some current season trends and fine tune.

The UNDER continues to dominate through the early portion of the season going 30-17-1 (63.8%) to date, and especially so at night. The UNDER is now 7-3 (70%) in 10 primetime games.

Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis at Denver: The UNDER in Thursday Night Football games has posted a 3-1 record through the first four weeks, and we could be on track for another low-scoring affair in the Mile High City for TNF this week.

The Denver Broncos lost a major piece of their offense this past weekend when RB Javonte Williams suffered a torn ACL, putting him out for the remainder of the season. The team has RB Melvin Gordon II as a backup plan, and he has been productive in this league in the past, but lately he has had some fumbling issues for the Broncos. We'll see if he can get that corrected, and keep the Denver offense on track.

Even with Williams, the Denver attack has struggled, posting 16, 16, 11 and a season-high 23 points last week in a 9-point loss in Las Vegas. The Broncos cashed the OVER for the first time in Vegas, but the Raiders did a lot of the heavy lifting. At home, Denver is 2-0 to the UNDER, averaging just 13.5 PPG on offense, while allowing 9.5 PPG on defense.

The Colts know all about UNDER results. In fact, Indy, the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers are the only three teams in the NFL which have cashed the UNDER in all four games to date. Indy has scored 20, 0, 20 and 17 to date, while allowing 20, 24, 17 and 24. The defense isn't dominant, but the offense has been god-awful, and that's what is driving the UNDER train.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at DENVER BRONCOS BETTING ODDS

Division Over-Under Notes

We had four divisional matchups in Week 4, with the UNDER cashing in three of those outings, including the snoozer Monday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers.

Through four weeks of play, the UNDER is 18-4 in divisional play, or cashing at a crazy 81.8%.

In Week 5, we see six divisional matchups, including the Sunday Night Football game between the Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, and the MNF game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs (see below).

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The Falcons hit their first UNDER of the season in last week's 23-20 win over the Cleveland Browns at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Now, the Falcons fly south down Interstate 75 to face an angry Buccaneers side.

In both of Atlanta's road games to date, it has cashed the OVER, and in its only divisional game so far, Week 1 at home against New Orleans, it also hit the OVER.

The Buccaneers were on the short end of a 41-31 score against the Kansas City Chiefs on SNF in Week 4, their first OVER of the season. The defense had allowed just 3, 10 and 14 across the first three games, but none of those opponents had QB Patrick Mahomes and his amazing cast.

The OVER has connected in seven of the past eight meetings between these teams, including a perfect 4-0 in the past four meetings at Raymond James Stadium. However, the Falcons did place RB Cordarrelle Patterson on IR this week, so Atlanta's offense could be a little bit disjointed.

ATLANTA FALCONS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BETTING ODDS

Houston at Jacksonville: After two UNDER results and just 29 total points scored in the first two outings, the Texans have produced two OVER results at Chicago and home to L.A. Chargers, averaging 22.0 PPG on offense, while allowing 28.5 PPG on defense.

The Jaguars have been surprisingly effective on offense this season, going for 21 or more points in every outing this season. The OVER is 3-1 through the first four games. The only game the UNDER cashed for the Jags was their 24-0 shutout win over the hapless Colts in Week 2.

It's been a roller coaster ride over the years in this series, in terms of the totals. The UNDER cashed in five straight meetings from Oct. 21, 2018 to Oct. 11, 2020, but the OVER has hit in the previous three outings, including each battle last season.

HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS BETTING ODDS

Miami at N.Y. Jets: The Dolphins have had a couple of days to regroup after its Thursday night loss in Cincinnati, when they posted a season-low 15 points. While Miami is 3-1 SU, it's mostly thanks to the defense, as the offense has produced 20, 42, 21 and 15. The 42-point explosion for the Dolphins was thanks to a 28-point effort in the fourth quarter in Baltimore. The UNDER is 3-1 in four games so far this season.

The big news for the Dolphins this week is that QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) has already been ruled out, so former brief Jets QB Teddy Bridgewater will make his first Miami start. Bridgewater was a member of the Jets organization from March 18, 2018 to Aug. 29, 2018, before a trade to the New Orleans Saints.

The UNDER and OVER has alternated in four games to date for Gang Green. Last week the team welcomed QB Zach Wilson back from a preseason knee surgery, and he made his first start of 2022. The Jets posted a 24-20 come-from-behind win, and, more importantly, the OVER. Oddly enough, the UNDER is 2-0 in two home games, with the Jets averaging just 10.5 PPG, while the OVER is 2-0 in two road games, with the Jets averaging 27.5 PPG.

In this series, the OVER cashed in the South Florida meeting last December, but the UNDER cashed in the late November battle in New Jersey, a 24-17 Dolphins win, and the UNDER is on a 4-1 run, and a 7-3 roll across the past 10 in the series.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at NEW YORK JETS BETTING ODDS

Chicago at Minnesota: The Bears are having some trouble scoring points, although it might have found a tremendous offensive asset in RB Khalil Herbert. Of course, a strong run game usually results in plenty of UNDER results. So far this season, Chicago is 3-1 to the UNDER, scoring 19, 10, 23 and 12.

After a slow start, the Vikings appear to have found their sea legs, averaging 15.0 PPG in the first two games, both UNDER results, while scoring 28 in each of the past two games, both OVER results. The Vikings are allowing 24 or more points in each of the past three outings, too.

Minnesota returns home from a win in London last week, and then faces the quick turnaround. Teams used to be guaranteed a bye after traveling to London in the past, but that ended in 2021. Last season, the Dolphins played in London, posting an UNDER, before returning home to face an OVER in a home game.

The OVER-UNDER has alternated in the past six meetings in this series, with the UNDER going 3-0 in the past three in Chicago, and the OVER going 3-0 in the past three in Minneapolis.

CHICAGO BEARS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS BETTING ODDS

Conference Angles

We had eight conference matchups in Week 4, including the highest-scoring game of the weekend between the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions. The OVER-UNDER split at 4-4, and that's now three straight weeks where the OVER has been equal to or greater than the UNDER in conference games this season.

In Week 5, we have eight more conference matchups, including the Colts-Broncos TNF game (see above), and the New York Giants-Green Bay Packers game in London at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday.

Through three weeks the OVER-UNDER is 14-13 (51.9%) in conference play.

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay (from London, UK): The OVER connected in last weekend's 28-25 win by the Vikings over the Saints at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the site of this game. The Packers make their first-ever appearance in London, while the Giants return for the third time.

The Giants won 13-10 over the Dolphins at Wembley Stadium on Oct. 28, 2007 in the first-ever London game as the UNDER cashed, and the G-Men topped the Rams 17-10 at Twickenham Stadium on Oct. 23, 2016 in another UNDER results. There's something about the U.K. which spurs the Giants on to wins, strong defensive efforts and UNDER results.

Lately, it's been all about the UNDER for Big Blue, going 22-5-2 across the past 29 games overall, and 4-1-1 in the past six against teams with a winning record. The Packers are 4-1 to the UNDER in the past five games overall, and 6-2 in the past eight against winning teams. You can mostly ignore the series trends, although they're still worth mentioning. The OVER is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings, but this is the first meeting since Dec. 1, 2019, a game near the end of QB Daniel Jones' rookie season.

Speaking of Jones, he was knocked out of last week's game with an ankle, and backup QB Tyrod Taylor was knocked out with a concussion in less than a half, forcing RB Saquon Barkley to take snaps at one point in the 'Wildcat' formation. Jones limped back on and finished, but he is doubtful to play this week, especially with all the travel. Taylor sounds like a no-go, too, so it might be practice-squad QB Davis Webb summoned to start. That looks good for UNDER bettors.

NEW YORK GIANTS vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS BETTING ODDS

L.A. Chargers at Cleveland: The Chargers rolled up a season-high 34 points in Houston last week, hitting the OVER for the second straight week after a pair of UNDER results to start. The Bolts have allowed 24 or more points in three straight games, coughing up 27, 38 and 24, so the Browns could be in good shape.

Cleveland's offense saw QB Baker Mayfield start last season's wild game at SoFi Stadium, with the Chargers eventually pulling out the 47-42 win. The last time these teams met in Cleveland, the Bolts headed east for the 38-14 win and OVER result on Oct. 14, 2018, although QB Philip Rivers was still the signal caller, and RB Melvin Gordon III (now in Denver) was toting the mail.

The Chargers made four trips into the Eastern Time Zone last season, splitting the OVER-UNDER 2-2, and in the past 10 trips to the Eastern Time Zone, the OVER-UNDER is 5-5, so yeah, it's a coin flip. But the Chargers are also 4-1 to the OVER in the past five road games, and 8-2 in the past 10 games overall, so there's that.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS BETTING ODDS

Seattle at New Orleans: The Seahawks had scored 17, 7 and 23 across the first three games this season, or a total of 47 points, good for a 2-1 UNDER record. The offense came alive under QB Geno Smith in Week 4 at Detroit, rolling up a 48-45 victory for the highest point total of the season. Who saw that coming? And yes, the D was horrific, and has now allowed 27 or more points in three in a row.

The Saints, like the Vikings, have the quick turnaround from London. In its only home game this season, New Orleans lost 20-10 to Tampa Bay while easily cashing the UNDER.

These teams met last season, with New Orleans scratching out a 13-10 win in Seattle on Oct. 25, 2021, an easy UNDER, and the UNDER is 4-1 across the past five outings.

For the Saints, QB Jameis Winston (back, ankle) is uncertain for this one, so QB Andy Dalton could make a second straight start.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS BETTING ODDS

Pittsburgh at Buffalo: This was supposed to be the much-anticipated return of QB Mitchell Trubisky, who was the Bills backup to QB Josh Allen last season. Surely there would have been a number retirement ceremony, on-field video tribute, etc. That was all spoiled by head coach Mike Tomlin, who put his team above any festivities, turning to rookie first-round pick QB Kenny Pickett for the second half against the New York Jets. Tomlin was looking for a spark, and he got it, as Pickett overcame an early interception to run for two scores, although, eventually, the Steelers did lose to the Jets 24-20 as the OVER cashed.

After the UNDER cashed in the first two games, the OVER is 2-0 in the previous two for Pittsburgh, and the Steelers have allowed 26.5 PPG during those two. Pickett and the offense needs to do more.

The Bills opened the season with 31 and 41 points on offense, but have managed just 19 and 23 across the past two outings. The UNDER is 3-1 for the Bills overall, allowing 10, 7, 21 and 20 on defense.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at BUFFALO BILLS BETTING ODDS

San Francisco at Carolina: The 49ers lost QB Trey Lance (ankle) for the season due to a fractured fibula and ligament disruption in Week 2 against the Seattle Seahawks, so it's now the QB Jimmy Garoppolo show (again) in San Francisco. After an uneven performance in an 11-10 loss at Denver, the Niners scored a 24-9 win against the Rams on MNF in Week 4. The UNDER has cashed in all four games this season, a product of shaky offense and a sick defense allowing just 10, 7, 10 and 9. And technically, the 7 allowed against the Seahawks in Week 2 was a DST score, a blocked field goal for TD!

Speaking of shoddy offense, the Panthers have to feel like they were sold a bill of goods. Mayfield has been, statistically, the worst starting QB in the league. If QB Sam Darnold were healthy, the team might even have made a change by now. Hey, Mayfield knows the Steelers from his days in Cleveland, so perhaps that jolts him to a big game, we'll see. The UNDER has hit in the past three for the Panthers, and the defense has produced just as many touchdowns as the offense in the past two games, two for each unit.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at CAROLINA PANTHERS BETTING ODDS

Dallas at L.A. Rams: The Cowboys have won three in a row since QB Cooper Rush took the starting spot after a Week 1 injury to QB Dak Prescott. The offense has gradually improved in each of Rush's three outings, going from 20 to 23 to 25, and the defense has allowed less points in each game this season from the previous weekend, going from 19 to 17 to 16 to 10. The UNDER is 3-0-1 overall for the Pokes.

As far as Prescott is concerned, he was scheduled to attend the doc Tuesday, and then push to play in Week 5. That's his timetable. The team's timetable might be quite different. Either way, the UNDER has been the rule for Dallas.

The Rams cashed the UNDER in Week 4 at San Francisco, cobbling together enough offense for just nine points. In fact, the Rams were held without an offensive touchdown for the first time since Week 17 of the 2020 season, a game QB John Wolford started for the injured QB Jared Goff. Yeah, a lot has happened since then. In that game, Stafford threw a pick-six for the 28th time, tying QB Joe Namath for third-most by any player since 1950.

More facts that are ugly for the Rams, they were outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter in Week 4, and they have a minus-41 point differential in the final quarter this season, worth in the NFL.

DALLAS COWBOYS at LOS ANGELES RAMS BETTING ODDS

Philadelphia at Arizona: The league's only unbeaten team, the Eagles, head out to the desert for an NFC bird battle. The OVER cashed last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Eagles have scored 29, 24, 24 and 38 so far this season. In two games posting an OVER, the defense yielded 35 and 21, while in two games with an UNDER, the defense allowed 7 and 8. It seems that you'll know pretty quickly how your day is going to go when playing totals in Eagles games.

The Cardinals hit the OVER in Week 1, thanks in large part to the fact they allowed 44 to the Chiefs. In the past three games, Arizona has scored 29, 12 and 26, while allowing 23, 20 and 16. The defense is improving, and the UNDER has hit in each of the previous three outings.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at ARIZONA CARDINALS BETTING ODDS

Non-Conference Angles

The Week 4 schedule featured four AFC-NFC matchups, and the OVER was an impressive 3-1. On the season, the OVER is now 7-6-1 (53.8%) across 14 intra-conference matchups. In Week 5 we have just two AFC-NFC matchups.

In Week 4 we have four AFC-NFC matchups, including a primetime matchup down in Tampa - or perhaps a neutral site. More on that below.

Detroit at New England: This was supposed to be Matt Patricia returning to Foxboro to face the master in a Bill Belichick coaching tree showdown. Patricia is long gone, and now Dan Campbell rules the roost at Allen Park. The Honolulu blue and silver might be just 1-3 SU overall, so not much has changed in wins and losses, but man is this team fun to watch. The Lions have scored 35 or more points three times, and they have allowed 27 or more points in all four games, cashing the OVER all four times.

The Patriots? Well, let's just say they're not as prolific. The team came up sort 27-24 in overtime at Green Bay last week, a game which saw backup QB Brian Hoyer, starting for the injured QB Mac Jones (ankle), knocked out. Third-string rookie QB Bailey Zappe did a good job helping the Pats hang in there, and the Patriots scored 24 points or more for the second straight game, but OVER results. The Pats defense has allowed 32.0 PPG in the previous two, too.

DETROIT LIONS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING ODDS

Tennessee at Washington: Slowly, but surely, the Titans offense is starting to come alive. It scored 24 points for the second straight game, and the defense has been much better lately, too. After allowing 21, 41 and 22 in the first three games, Tennessee's D allowed a season-low 17 in a win in Indianapolis.

Washington's offense started out on fire, going for 28 and 27, but in the past two games it has managed just 8 and 10, while the defense has yielded 24.5 PPG. The UNDER has hit in each of the past two, and the D has coughed up 22 or more points in all four games to date.

The UNDER was 3-2 for the Titans against AFC teams in 2021. For the Commanders, the UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven home games, while going 11-5 in the past 16 games overall, and 14-3 in the past 17 in the month of October.

TENNESSEE TITANS at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS BETTING ODDS

Primetime Notes

The UNDER was 2-1 in the three Week 4 primetime games, and the UNDER is now 9-4 (69.2%) through the first four NFL weekends. The UNDER produced at a 25-19-1 (56.9%) clip in 46 primetime games during the 2021 regular season.

Sunday Night Football Notes

Cincinnati at Baltimore: In an October game in Baltimore last season, QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals served notice to the rest of the league that they were a contender, winning 41-17 as the OVER hit, and they dropped a 41-21 beatdown on Baltimore in Cincinnati the day after Christmas as another OVER connected. It was a stark departure from the pair of 3-point effort the Bengals put together during the 2020-21 season, which saw the UNDER hit both times.

Speaking of UNDERs, that's all the Bengals know this season. The UNDER is a perfect 4-0, scoring 20, 17, 27 and 27, while allowing just 23, 20, 12 and 15. In fact, the UNDER has cashed in nine straight games dating back to last season for the 'Nati.

The Ravens will just be glad to play someone else other than an AFC East opponent. The good news is that Baltimore has scored 20 or more points in all four games, but the bad news is that it has scored 23 or more points in each of the past three, including 42 points to the Dolphins in Week 2. The OVER is 2-1 in the past three games.

CINCINNATI BENGALS at BALTIMORE RAVENS BETTING ODDS

Monday Night Football Notes

Las Vegas at Kansas City: The Raiders dropped a season-high 32 points on the visiting Broncos in Week 4, securing its second straight OVER result. The offense has gradually improved, going for 19, 23, 22 and 32, while the defense has remained about the same. Vegas has allowed 23 or more points in each outing this season.

The Chiefs will play just their second home game of the season, and even after this one, Kansas City will still have yet to play on a Sunday at Arrowhead this season. Kansas City dropped Tampa Bay 41-31 on SNF in Week 4, its second time over the 40-point mark this season. The OVER cashed in each of those games. The other two games saw less offense and more defense.

Last season in mid-December the Chiefs slaughtered the Raiders 48-9, taking care of the OVER themselves. The Chiefs also pounded the Raiders 41-14 in Vegas on Nov. 14 for another OVER. The OVER has actually hit in each of the past four meetings in this series, too.

The OVER is 8-3 in the past 11 games inside the division for the Raiders, while the UNDER is 6-2 in their past eight MNF appearances. The UNDER is 5-0 in the past five MNF showings for the Chiefs, so do with that what you will. Know the OVER is 9-3 in the past 12 games overall, however, while going 7-2 in the previous nine on a grass surface.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING ODDS

Fearless Predictions

Last week's predictions were a clean sweep, and not in a good way. Up was down, down was up, and it was an 0-4 (-430) week, the first losing skid of the season. It happens. Overall, we're now at 6-10 (-410) after that punch in the mouth. Not good. Let's build back that bankroll for Week 5 and down the stretch toward Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona on Feb. 12, 2023.

• Best Over: OVER 42.5 Titans at Commanders
• Best Under: UNDER 48.5 Falcons at Buccaneers
• Best First-Half Total: UNDER 19.5 49ers at Panthers

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

• UNDER 55.5 Falcons at Buccaneers
• UNDER 52.5 Seahawks at Saints
• OVER 41.5 Bengals at Ravens

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Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish