Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns Picks, Predictions, Odds
Week 5 of the NFL season continues Sunday afternoon as the Los Angeles Chargers travel to meet the Cleveland Browns in an AFC matchup at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland on Sunday. Coverage begins at 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS BETTING PREDICTION
The teams met last season at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, and when the dust settled, the Chargers outlasted the Browns 47-42 in a wild game. The Browns ran for 230 yards and passed for 301 yards, the Bolts ran for 112 yards and rolled up 381 yards through the air. QB Baker Mayfield is no longer with the Browns, but QB Justin Herbert is obviously still with the Bolts, and he passed for 398 yards and four scores, while RB Austin Ekeler totaled three TDs, with 66 rushing yards and two scores, while adding five grabs for 53 yards and a TD. WR Mike Williams also showed out with eight catches for 165 yards and two touchdowns.
We should see a little less scoring on the shores of Lake Erie, with temperatures around 60 degrees and a win blowing from 10-20 mph at times. It will definitely be a big change from the controlled environment of SoFi.
The Chargers scored a season-high 34 points last week in Houston, while allowing 24 points. The offense was promising, but the defense still needs a little work. The OVER has hit in the past two after a pair of UNDER results in the first two games.
The Browns are coming off another loss, 23-20 in Atlanta, falling to 2-2. In the AFC North, though, that's still good for first place. Head coach Kevin Stefanski got a little cute with the analytics last week, choosing math and computer input over football common sense, and the team failed on fourth down in the red zone, eschewing the easy field goal at the time. It was a big difference and momentum change. Bettors just LOVE analytics coaches, and when their decisions fail and leave points on the field. Ugh.
Score Prediction: Chargers 29, Browns 23
Best Bet: Chargers -2 (-108)
Best Bet: OVER 47 (-105)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS BETTING ODDS
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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS BETTING RESOURCES
Date: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022
Matchup: AFC West vs. AFC North
Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Time-TV: CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS BETTING ANALYSIS
The Chargers are 2-2 SU, and a lot of people probably figured this team would be 3-1 SU by this point. A surprising 38-10 loss at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars is the difference, but we're finding out the Jags are for real and that loss might not look as bad as it did two weeks ago. That was the only non-cover for the Bolts so far, too.
The Bolts are doing what we thought, going for big yards on offense. The passing yards per game (307.3) lead the NFL, and the team is 7th in total yards (371.8) per game. It's been an unbalanced attack, as the team is rushing for just 64.5 yards per game to rank 32nd, and that might be a bit of a concern going forward. The team is just 12th in points per game (23.0), so improvement can be made there, too.
On defense, the Chargers rank just 20th with 349.5 total yards per game allowed, while ranking 30th in points allowed (27.0) per game. Despite some uneven numbers on D, and the unbalanced offensive attack, the team is still 3-1 ATS overall this season, while allowing 24 or more points in each of the past three games. The OVER is 2-0 in the past two.
CLEVELAND BROWNS BETTING ANALYSIS
The Browns are up and down. A win. A loss. A win. A loss. A cover. A non-cover. A cover. A non-cover. Bettors don't know what they're going to get with the Browns. The one constant was the OVER, cashing in the first three games, and then the team hit the UNDER in Week 4 to cast doubt on totals now, too.
Cleveland is what we thought they were. Sorry, to the late Coach Dennis Green for stealing his line. This is a powerful rushing offense, posting 187.3 yards per game on the ground to rank 2nd in the NFL, and it has 26.3 PPG despite caretaker QB Jacoby Brissett under center. The team is 25th in passing, so unbalanced like the Chargers.
Defensively, Cleveland is pretty solid, ranking 9th overall in total yards (326.0) per game, while allowing 23.8 PPG to rank 19th. It's good against the pass, but that will be tested early and often by Herbert. The good news is that DE Myles Garrett returned to practice this week after sitting a game due to a car accident. If Garrett plays, that's a huge boost for the Browns, if he is out, heaven help the D.
The Browns are just 2-5 ATS in the past seven home games. That's the bad news. The good news is that the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, and the Browns have covered six of the past eight, including last season, against the Chargers. Still, I think the Browns don't have enough to push past the Chargers, a more complete team.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS BETTING TRENDS
- Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 October games
- Browns are 2-5 ATS in the past seven home games
- Browns are 8-20 ATS in the past 28 October games
- Browns are 2-6 ATS in the past eight vs. AFC teams
- OVER is 8-2 in the past 10 games for the Chargers
- OVER is 4-1 in the past five road games for the Chargers
- OVER is 6-2 in the past eight October games for the Chargers
- Chargers are 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings
- Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings
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