Week 5 NFL Player Prop Picks, Predictions, Odds

Stuart Durst Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top plays in Week 5 of the NFL for Sunday, October 9th. Check out his prediction below, along with other VI Expert Picks!

Updated on 11/22/2024

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NFL Week 5 Best Prop Bets

• Saquon Barkley (NYG) Over 59.5 Rushing Yards + AJ Dillon (GNB) Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
• Zach Ertz (ARI) Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)

Saquon Barkley (NYG) Over 59.5 Rushing Yards

With how Daniel Jones has been running this season, he was my initial instinct for rushing yards in this game. That being said, he’s dealing with injuries that will probably leave him less mobile then we’ve seen him so far this season. While we’ve already talked about the fact that Saquon Barkely is game script proof, it seems like this Giants team is going to be even more reliant on him this week. Barkley’s price is currently sitting at 79.5, so getting this number 20 yards lower is definitely something I’m interested in.

Barkley is currently 4/4 on this number, rushing for 146, 81, 72, and 164. Saquon is going to see some of the most consistent volume out of any running back in the NFL, and the Packers are a good matchup. While their pass defense has been stout this season, the rush defense has really struggled. Last week they faced the Patriots with Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe, and still allowed Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris to run all over them. This strikes me as a similar situation, the whole world knows they're going to run the ball and it still works. The Packers also play at an extremely slow pace, meaning it's less likely this game gets in a game script where the Giants have to abandon the run.

AJ Dillon (GNB) Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

Dedication between AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones was tough, but I think both of these backs get plenty of work. The Giants have been another team we’ve heavily targeted with the ground game, and now they get the toughest 1-2 punch in the NFL. While I wouldn't be surprised if Jones gets a majority of the first half work, I expect Dillon to come in and really grind down that defense in the second half. Dillon is over this number in 3 of his 4 games this season, with his one miss coming against a stout Tampa Bay defense.

Zach Ertz (ARI) Over 4.5 Receptions

This is one of the more obvious plays of the week, and it's important to remember popular doesn't always mean wrong. Ever since returning from injury, Ertz has clearly been Kyler Murray's favorite safety blanket. While a lot will be made of Ertz making his return to Philadelphia, that's not even the best part of this bet. The Cardinals receivers will be dealing with an incredibly tough matchup, with Darius Slay and James Bradberry absolutely crushing it on the outside to start the season. Ertz clearly has some emotional motivations in this game, and having that extra edge is never something I’m going to complain about.

Ertz has 20 catches over his last three matchups, cashing this bet in all 3. Gamescipt is another reason I like this play. I expect the Eagles to be leading for a majority of this matchup, forcing Murray into a more pass heavy game script. With safeties likely playing back trying to reduce explosive plays, I expect Ertz to continue to serve as the safety blanket over the middle. He has some of the best volume of all NFL TE’s, I expect him to preform in his return to Philly.

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Stuart Durst

Stuart Durst, also known as @MonotoneFootbal on Twitter, is a writer and sports bettor specializing in the NFL, NBA and CFB. When he’s not writing for OddsChecker, he enjoys playing basketball and talking player props with his community. More from Stuart Durst