Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Week 6 of the NFL season continues Sunday afternoon as the Minnesota Vikings visit the Miami Dolphins in an AFC-NFC matchup at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Coverage begins at 1 p.m. ET on FOX.

Updated on 12/03/2024

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MINNESOTA VIKINGS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING PREDICTION

The Vikings hit the road for South Florida, and it faces a favorable situation due to injury. The Dolphins will be without QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) still, so third-string rookie QB Skylar Thompson will make his first NFL start. Yes, that's third-string, although head coach Mike McDonald said that if QB Teddy Bridgewater is healthy enough to return from an elbow injury and concussion, Thompson will still start. It's hard to imagine he saw something good from the rook in a 40-17 loss at N.Y. Jets in relief last week.

The Vikings returned from a 28-25 win in London over the New Orleans Saints, posting a 29-22 win at home against the Chicago Bears. While the Vikes have won three in a row straight up, they have failed to cover in each of the past four. The OVER has connected in three in a row for Minnesota, too.

This will be the first meeting between these teams since a 41-17 win by the Vikings in Minneapolis, and it is the first meeting since Dec. 21, 2014 in South Florida, a 37-35 win by the Fins in a shootout. The OVER has cashed in three of the past four meetings, with the Vikes covering the past two.

Score Prediction: Vikings 29, Dolphins 13
Best Bet: Vikings -3 (-110)
Best Bet: UNDER 46 (-108)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING ODDS

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MINNESOTA VIKINGS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022
Matchup: NFC North vs. AFC East
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
Time-TV: FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET

MINNESOTA VIKINGS BETTING ANALYSIS

The high-powered Vikings offense will be on display on the fast track at Hard Rock Stadium. Minnesota ranks 10th in total yards (361.0), 8th in passing yards (259.2) and 12th in points scored (23.0) per game. If it struggles in any one area, it's running the football.

Defensively, the Vikes allow 369.8 total yards per game to rank 24th, while yielding 249.4 passing yards per game to rank 22nd in the NFL. They're allowing 20.4 PPG, which is middle of the road at 15th.

Minnesota has failed to cover its past four overall, while going 1-5 ATS in the past six games on the road. It is also 1-6 ATS in the past seven games in the month of October.

For totals, the OVER has connected in 10 of the past 13 games overall, while cashing in 10 of the past 13 on the road, too. And in the past five away games, the OVER is 5-0 in the past five against teams with a winning home mark.

MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING ANALYSIS

The good news for the Dolphins is that RB Raheem Mostert has really come on lately, and the Vikings ranks 19th against the run. But the effectiveness of the run game might be stunted with Thompson making his first NFL start.

Miami has posted a 10-4-1 ATS in the past 15 games overall, while going an impressive 16-5 ATS in the past 21 games at home. The Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning overall record, too, but those numbers aren't terribly important with the unfamiliar rookie under center.

The Dolphins should struggle to put up points, perhaps scoring some late to make it look not as bad as it is. The Vikings should win this one going away, as long as it can negotiate the heat and humidity of South Florida.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING TRENDS

• Vikings are 0-4 ATS in the past four games overall
• Vikings are 1-5 ATS in the past six road games
• Dolphins are 10-4-1 ATS in the past 15 games overall
• Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in the past 21 home games
• Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six vs. winning teams
• OVER is 10-3 in the past 13 games overall for the Vikings
• OVER is 10-3 in the past 13 road games for the Vikings

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Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish