NFL Week 7 Parlay Picks and Predictions

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Betting expert Michael Crosson provides his top parlay selections for Week 7 of the NFL season. Odds provided by DraftKings.

ATS Parlay Best Bet

• Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-110) vs IND
• Miami Dolphins -7 (-110) vs. PIT

Payout: +264

The Titans have been on quite the rollercoaster to start the season, as the Titans opened with back-to-back losses to the Giants and Bills, while scoring just 13.5 PPG and allowing 31 PPG in those two contests. However, Tennessee has pulled its weight on both sides of the ball since Week 2, as the Titans scored 23 PPG and allowed just 19 DPPG across consecutive victories over the Raiders, Colts, and Commanders prior to their Week 6 bye.

The Colts, on the other hand, struggled miserably on the offensive side of the ball in their first five matchups with Matt Ryan under center, as Indy averaged a league-worst 13.8 PPG and turned the ball over 11 times across a 2-2-1 skid to open the season, mostly thanks to Ryan’s seven interceptions and three lost fumbles during that span. However, the Colts’ offense finally came to life in a home matchup against Jacksonville last week, as Indy escaped with a 34-27 come-from-behind victory this past Sunday.

I’ll back Tennessee to cover here, as the Colts’ offense looked pretty good in their second go-around against Jacksonville last week, however, for those that’ve already forgotten, the Colts scored 20 PTS or less in five straight matchups to open the season, and I expect their struggles to resurface on the road against a Titans’ defense that allowed 22 PTS or less in four of their first five contests.

Heading into Week 4, Miami stood as the last undefeated team in the AFC, as the Dolphins opened with three straight wins over the Patriots, Ravens, and Bills, while racking up 27.7 PPG on 355 YPG in those victories. However, Tua Tagovailoa’s health issues derailed the entire operation, as the Dolphins averaged just 16 PPG and turned the ball over seven times across an 0-3 skid in his absence.

The Steelers, on the other hand, are also having their fair share of struggles on the offensive side of the ball, as Mike Tomlin’s squad averaged just 16.2 PPG on 292 YPG and turned the ball over nine times across a 2-4 skid to open the season, with their highest scoring output thus far coming in a Week 1 overtime win over the Bengals (W, 23-20 OT).

I’ll back Miami to cover here, as Pittsburgh posted a stunning home victory over Tampa Bay last week, however, the Steelers averaged just 14.3 PPG across their first three road matchups of the year, and that type of offensive production typically isn’t enough to compete with this new-look Dolphins squad when Tua’s under center.

ML Parlay Best Bet

• New York Giants ML (+140) @ JAX
• Kansas City Chiefs ML (-150) @ SF

Payout: +300

We’re just six weeks into the 2022 season, and the Giants have already eclipsed the heights of their previous campaign, as the G-Men finished dead-last in the NFC East with a record of 4-13 last year, and now this season, New York enters Week 7 sitting 5-1. However, it hasn’t been pretty, as Daniel Jones and co. averaged just 21.2 PPG on 317 YPG across their first six contests, which ranks 18^th and 25^th in the league respectively. But lackluster offensive play can be easily overshadowed when your defense surrenders 20 PTS or less in four-of-six matchups to open the year (18.6 PPG).

Jacksonville, on the other hand, has also overachieved in the early stages of the season, as the Jaguars yielded a modest 2-4 record in their first six matchups with Doug Pederson at the helm, while averaging 23 PPG on 358 YPG across those contests. Which is solid progress after going 4-13 and averaging a league-worst 15 PPG last year.

Honestly, I’m still not much of a believer in this 5-1 Giants squad, but after posting impressive upset victories over the Titans, Packers, and Ravens, I find this line a bit disrespectful for a matchup against a Jacksonville squad that’s done nothing but shoot itself in the foot throughout the first six weeks of the season.

San Francisco’s offense has certainly experienced its fair share of ups and downs to start the season, as the Niners racked up 29.3 PPG on 366 YPG in their trio of victories over the Seahawks, Rams, and Panthers, however, they also scored just 11.3 PPG on 315 YPG across an ugly trio of losses to the Bears, Broncos, and Falcons.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, have performed right on par with previous campaigns to open the season, as Kansas City’s offense lit up the scoreboard for 35.8 PPG on 398 YPG in tough victories over the Cardinals, Chargers, Bucs, and Raiders. But of course, it wouldn’t be Chiefs’ football without the occasional head-scratching blunder from Andy Reid, as they also averaged 18.5 PPG on 351 YPG across a pair of frustrating losses to the Colts and Bills.

I’ll back the Chiefs here, as the Niners’ defense is incredibly tough, as they’ve now held their opponent to 19 PTS or less in five-of-six matchups this season (14.8 PPG), however, Kansas City’s offense is one of the most dominant individual units in the league, and I just don’t feel comfortable backing Jimmy Garoppolo in a situation that might require him to generate a bunch of points.

Six-Point Teaser

• Las Vegas Raiders -0.5 (-6.5) vs. HOU
• Jets-Broncos Under 44.5 (OU 38.5)

Payout: -120

Las Vegas entered Week 1 sky high expectations, as the Raiders earned the top Wild Card spot in the AFC with a record of 10-7 last year, and this past offseason, they brought in All-Pro WR Davante Adams to add some flare to the offense. However, things didn’t exactly go as planned out of the gate, as the Raiders opened the season with a frustrating 0-3 skid consisting of losses to the Chargers, Cardinals, and Titans, with all three of those defeats coming by less than a touchdown. However, the Raiders played decent football in their ensuing two affairs, as Derek Carr and co. racked up 30.5 PPG on 382 YPG across a 1-1 split against the Broncos and Chiefs.

I’ll back Las Vegas here, as the Raiders might dwell at 1-4, but their offense has still maintained a high level of consistency by scoring 22+ PTS in four of those five matchups (25 PPG), likely presenting an uphill battle for a Texans squad that’s scored 20 PTS or less in four-of-six contests to start the season (17.2 PPG).

Many people thought Denver would immediately jump to AFC contender status after acquiring Russell Wilson from Seattle this past offseason, however, that’s been far from the case, as the Broncos opened with a frustrating 2-4 skid consisting of losses to the Seahawks, Raiders, Colts, and Chargers. And while there’s nothing overly worrisome about posting a 2-4 record out of the gate, especially with a brand new head coach-quarterback combo, the nature of their opening skid certainly raises some red flags, as the Broncos’ offense generated 16 PTS or less in five-of-six matchups to open the year (15.2 PPG).

The Jets, on the other hand, are off to their best start since 2015, as New York scored 23.8 PPG and allowed just 21.3 PPG across a surprisingly solid 4-2 start to the season, with their only losses coming in tough matchups against the Ravens and Bengals.

I’ll take an adjusted under here, as the Broncos’ offense just doesn’t score points, however, their defense has still kept them somewhat afloat by allowing 19 PTS or less in five-of-six matchups thus far (16.5 PPG), and I expect that trend to continue with another competitive low-scoring battle against the Jets this Sunday.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson