Week 11 NFL Underdog Fantasy Picks

Sam Wagman Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Sports betting expert Sam Wagman is here to give out his favorite Underdog Fantasy prop picks for Week 11 in the NFL! Check out his favorite props below as he takes you behind his thought process of each prop.

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Week 11 Best Props

• David Montgomery Over 61.5 Rushing Yards
• Brian Robinson Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
• Foster Moreau Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
• Kirk Cousins Under 260.5 Passing Yards
• Justin Fields Under 71.5 Rush Yards

Justin Fields Under 71.5 Rushing Yards

Might as well start with the obvious wild choice here, right? Fields has been on an absolute fantasy TEAR over the last five games, finishing as at least the QB8 or better in every single one. Those finishes have been heavily bolstered by the fact that he has been the most prolific rushing quarterback in football over that time period, averaging 111 rushing yards per game and hitting at least 82 yards in 4 out of those 5 games.

Simply put, Fields has been unstoppable lately, and it really doesn't seem like it needs to stop this week with the Bears traveling to Atlanta to take on a surprisingly competitive Falcons team. There are a couple of wrinkles that the surface doesn't show you with the Falcons though, and the chief one is this stunner of a fact: the Falcons rank 32nd in the league in rushing yards per game allowed to opposing QBs with 8.9 YPG.

Now, we have to take into account that the best rushing quarterback they've faced this season has been Geno Smith, but he still ranks 8th in the NFL with 218 rushing yards this season so it isn't totally ignorable. I can't explain why I feel so strongly about this under hitting, but sometimes things happen that just don't make sense. We're riding with it.

David Montgomery Over 61.5 Rushing Yards

This bet is out of sheer necessity at this point. Khalil Herbert, who was literally the heart and soul of this Bears' top rushing offense, has gone to injured reserve due to a hip injury. We're already betting on Justin Fields' under this week. The only thing left to do is take a turn down Narrative Street and look at the last remaining running threat available to us, and that is Montgomery.

Montgomery has had an up-and-down season so far, and he's only gone over this prop number in 3 of 9 games this season. Still, I can't help but fire him up this week, as the Falcons have been getting gashed on the ground recently. In their last three games, they are giving up an average of 136 rushing yards per game to running backs and now here comes a Bears team that is furious, having become the first team in NFL history to score 29 points in three straight games yet lose every single one of those games.

Brian Robinson Over 63.5 Rushing Yards

Robinson is quite a story for the ages at this point. He's seemingly taken over the RB1 job in Washington, as he's averaged 19 carries a game in the 4 games where he's seen at least a 30% snap share. He only has 4 total catches on the season, but when you're getting that much volume on the ground, you can make things work. He's struggled with his efficiency a tad, as he has not had a game averaging over 4 yards per carry yet.

A lot of things go out the window when you're playing against the Houston Texans though, and that's the matchup that Robinson draws this week. That's right, the league-worst rushing defense that gives up 5.5 yards per attempt and 156.3 rushing yards per game. Don't really feel like we need to say more than that, as even Robinson should be able to carve out 80 rushing yards in this matchup.

I can't shake the feeling that after watching the running game run roughshod all over the Philadelphia Eagles in a massive upset last week, that Ron Rivera opts to do the exact same thing in this matchup. The Texans have only prevented an opposing team from going over 100 rushing yards in a game ONCE this season.

Kirk Cousins Under 260.5 Passing Yards

Passing unders can sketch anyone out. Especially when you have an insane talent like Justin Jefferson on your team (you may not know who he is -- he had 193 receiving yards last week). I think Minnesota was just willing to throw, throw, throw to beat the Buffalo Bills though, and they may not have to do that in order to beat the Dallas Cowboys this week, who have a very good defense and don't play a lot of high-scoring games. It's worth noting that even though the Packers defeated the Cowboys 31-28 last week, Aaron Rodgers only threw 20 passes in the win and relied on the running abilities of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to beat the Cowboys up.

Against the Cowboys, the Vikings could have their hands full. The Cowboys allow the 4th fewest passing yards to quarterbacks with 203.5 yards per game, and only Matthew Stafford has thrown for more than 228 yards in game against them this season. I think if the Vikings are to stand a serious chance in this game, it will be due to Dalvin Cook getting going on the ground, since Jefferson has been a bit banged up this week with a toe injury.

Foster Moreau Over 35.5 Receiving Yards

Man, I miss Darren Waller this season. Not many better stories than his out there, but with him currently on IR, Moreau will do just fine. We've seen many instances where Moreau looks like a bonafide star athlete himself, and I can imagine he makes some plays that'll shock you this weekend too. Moreau is starting to heat up at a good time as well, as he finally scored his first touchdown of the 2022 campaign last week and has now had back-to-back 40+ yard weeks.

On the other side, the Denver Broncos are one of the most intimidating defenses in football and have a lot to show for it. However, they're a little lacking against the tight end position. They rank as the 13th worst defense in yards allowed to tight ends, allowing 51.6 yards per game to them. I wouldn't consider them having played many good ones though this season, as outside of George Kittle and an injured-at-the-time Waller, they haven't faced a tight end that was drafted inside the top-12 of the position, per FantasyPros.

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Sam Wagman

Sam Wagman is a fantasy football and sports betting content expert who has loved sports his entire life. He started covering all of the Philadelphia sports teams back in 2019 and switched over to fantasy football and sports betting in 2021, mostly delving into football and golf betting. He joined the VegasInsider team in 2022 and has written for sites like Footballguys and Fantasy Points as well. Sam is a diehard sports fanatic to the end and can frequently be found playing different sports. He likes golf the most, and is currently trying to break 80 before he breaks his clubs. He loves his dog Rocky, the beach, and driving with the windows down, though he's at his happiest when he's yelling at the TV for his bets to hit or his fantasy team to win. More from Sam Wagman