Week 12 NFL Underdog Fantasy Picks

Sam Wagman Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Sports betting expert Sam Wagman is here to give out his favorite Underdog Fantasy prop picks for Week 11 in the NFL! Check out his favorite props below as he takes you behind his thought process of each prop.

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Week 12 Best Props

• Amari Cooper Over 56.5 Receiving Yards
• Latavius Murray Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
• Joe Burrow Over 36.5 Passing Attempts
• Kyler Murray Over 1.5 Passing TDs

Amari Cooper Over 56.5 Receiving Yards

Cooper gets a home game! The talented wide receiver has struggled on the road this season, averaging nearly 3 catches and 30 yards per game more at home than he does on the road. The Browns will need to throw the football in this one as the Buccaneers are one of the more talented rushing defenses in the NFL.

Cooper also gets the benefit of facing one of the worse passing defenses in the league. The Bucs give up the 5th most passing yards per game to wideouts. They also give up 61% of their total fantasy points allowed to wide receivers that line up on the outside like Cooper does, giving him an advantage.

Expect Cooper to be extremely busy in this game as the Buccaneers will exploit what is a very underperforming defense on all three levels this year, leading to a game script where Jacoby Brissett finds himself targeting Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones a lot.

Latavius Murray Over 54.5 Rushing Yards

Denver unceremoniously cut incumbent Melvin Gordon earlier this week after yet another fumble, so the entire backfield nearly has worked its way into Murray’s favor finally, and he gets a solid matchup to strut his stuff here. The Broncos have struggled all year to efficiently run the football, but Murray's hard-charging style could inject some life into the offense.

The Panthers rank a middling 15th in rushing yards given up to running backs, but there is still value here with Chase Edmonds on IR and newly signed Marlon Mack still getting acclimated. With Sam Darnold taking over for the Panthers at the QB spot, there may be a few turnovers for Murray to take advantage of, and he’s averaged 4.8 yards per carry over his last two games with at least 11 carries in both.

Joe Burrow Over 36.5 Pass Attempts

This line does not seem to be taking into account two very important factors: the absence of Joe Mixon leading to more work for Samaje Perine, and the return of Ja’Marr Chase (even if he’s still a little wobbly). 

Looking at the Mixon absence first, Perine is a dump-off generator, as he has proven to be very skilled in the passing game. Not only do the Titans allow the most passing attempts per game with over 40, but they also allow the most targets to running backs, allowing nearly 10 per game. Perine should be extremely busy. I also expect Chase to get a handful of looks in this game along with Burrow’s usual complement of weapons, and we could see the Bengals just choose to lean heavily on their aerial attack.

Kyler Murray Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

What a time for the Cardinals to get right! Murray has finally returned, Marquise Brown is in a very good spot to make his return, James Conner is looking like his workhorse self, and they get a Chargers team that is somehow perpetually in a state of being banged up on both sides of the ball.

The Chargers rank as the 6th worst team when it comes to giving up passing touchdowns, so this feels like a spot to take advantage of. They also give up 6 fantasy points per game to wide receivers in the red zone, lending hope to the idea that the Cardinals can drive down the field and do some damage with DeAndre Hopkins and the returning Brown.

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Sam Wagman

Sam Wagman is a fantasy football and sports betting content expert who has loved sports his entire life. He started covering all of the Philadelphia sports teams back in 2019 and switched over to fantasy football and sports betting in 2021, mostly delving into football and golf betting. He joined the VegasInsider team in 2022 and has written for sites like Footballguys and Fantasy Points as well. Sam is a diehard sports fanatic to the end and can frequently be found playing different sports. He likes golf the most, and is currently trying to break 80 before he breaks his clubs. He loves his dog Rocky, the beach, and driving with the windows down, though he's at his happiest when he's yelling at the TV for his bets to hit or his fantasy team to win. More from Sam Wagman