Week 13 NFL Underdog Fantasy Picks

Sam Wagman Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Sports betting expert Sam Wagman is here to give out his favorite Underdog Fantasy prop picks for Week 11 in the NFL! Check out his favorite props below as he takes you behind his thought process of each prop.

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Week 13 Best Props

• Garrett Wilson Over 63.5 Receiving Yards
• Christian Kirk Over 61.5 Receiving Yards
• Deshaun Watson Under 1.5 Passing TDs

Garrett Wilson Over 63.5 Receiving Yards

Let me first say that this line is the absolute highest I feel comfortable taking. It was at 58.5 last night when I initially found the line and has since jumped. But I still think it's a valid process due to how bad the Vikings' defense has previously been.

First off, the Vikings are a major pass-funnel defense, and while I've talked about this in previous articles, it basically means that the secondary is bad enough compared to the rush defense that teams will opt to throw the ball against them no matter what their offensive identity is built around. The Vikings are allowing 293.7 passing yards per game, a number that is 7 yards more than the next team, the Titans.

Wilson has been the clear WR1 for the Jets this season, and as long as he isn't receiving targets from the now-benched Zach Wilson, he's pretty much been a stud. In 4 games with Joe Flacco/Mike White at QB, Wilson is averaging 5.9 catches per game on 10.1 targets for 77.25 yards and 1 touchdown, while in the other 7 games with Wilson he averaged 45.5 yards per game on 3.7 catches and scored ZERO times. Clear difference here, and that's why we're rolling with the rookie stud.

Christian Kirk Over 61.5 Receiving Yards

Kirk is a dynamite play this week, and it's not just because he's hit at least 60 yards in 7 of his 11 games this season (though that definitely plays a part in this analysis). The first part of this play is a common leg of this system: the defense he's going up against is really bad against the pass!

The Lions rank as the fifth-worst team against the pass this season, giving up an average of over 271 passing yards per game. Not to mention, their run defense has been getting better and while Travis Etienne is back for this game, he's still coming off a foot injury that forced him out of last week's matchup, so no guarantee he's his normal, effective self.

Not only that, but Jeff Okudah is returning from a concussion for this game and practiced fully this week. Okudah has shown at times this year that he is indeed the talent the Lions envisioned themselves getting when they drafted him third overall a couple of years ago and should shadow one of Marvin or Zay Jones in this matchup. A shadow matchup outside would force Trevor Lawrence to pick up his targets to the slot, where Kirk resides on nearly 80% of his routes and coincidentally, where the Lions rank as the 2nd-worst team in the NFL in PPG allowed to wide receivers.

Deshaun Watson Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

I sense that there will be plenty of people betting Watson overs this weekend, and that provides a perfect opportunity to fade a chalky play. Watson obviously has not played since the end of the 2020 season, and returns to football after missing 30 weeks of games in a big revenge matchup against his old team.

I would say that the revenge matchup is partially to blame for this high number, but also a popular misconception about this Texans' defense and how teams choose to play offensively against them. The Texans are the worst defense against running backs in the NFL this season, allowing nearly 150 rushing yards per game, over 10 yards more than any other team. Due to this, teams typically don't throw that much against them, with only 30.3 average attempts against per game, 4th-lowest in the league.

We have to take rust into account with Watson as well, due to the long layoff. Sure he's been in the facility lately, and he played a bit in preseason, but you saw the rust then and I think that will continue in this game against a solid corner in Derek Stingley likely sticking to Amari Cooper, who is also not good on the road (averaging nearly 30 yards per game less on the road vs. at home). Add to this that stud tight end David Njoku is out for this game, and you have limited options for Watson to get to this number.

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Sam Wagman

Sam Wagman is a fantasy football and sports betting content expert who has loved sports his entire life. He started covering all of the Philadelphia sports teams back in 2019 and switched over to fantasy football and sports betting in 2021, mostly delving into football and golf betting. He joined the VegasInsider team in 2022 and has written for sites like Footballguys and Fantasy Points as well. Sam is a diehard sports fanatic to the end and can frequently be found playing different sports. He likes golf the most, and is currently trying to break 80 before he breaks his clubs. He loves his dog Rocky, the beach, and driving with the windows down, though he's at his happiest when he's yelling at the TV for his bets to hit or his fantasy team to win. More from Sam Wagman