NFL Betting Trends – Week 17

5 minute read

Betting expert and handicapper Bruce Marshall breaks down the top trends for the entire Week 17 NFL slate. Check them out below and be sure to visit our NFL picks page for expert selections on games this week!

Thursday, December 29

Dallas vs. Tennessee (Amazon Prime, 8:15 p.m.)

Cowboys working on “overs” last five and seven of last eight this season, though just 5-5 last ten vs. spread.
Titans 0-5 SU and vs. line last five in 2022, no covers last three in Nashville.

Tech Play: Cowboys, Over
Expert Picks

Sunday, January 1

Miami vs. New England (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

Dolphins have owned this series lately, winning and covering last four.
Miami however on 3-8-1 spread skid after loss to Pack.
Belichick 1-4 SU and vs. spread last five after loss to Bengals, also on 6-2 “under” run.

Tech Play: Dolphins, Under
Expert Picks

Arizona vs. Atlanta (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

Cards had been on 6-1-1 “over” run prior to Bucs “under” on Sunday.
Falcons “under” last four this season, and only 2-6 vs. spread last eight at Mercedes Benz.
Falcs had covered first three at home this season but just 1-3 since vs. spread as host.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Denver vs. Kansas City (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

Nathaniel Hackett era ends in Denver with 4-11 SU and 6-9 spread marks.
Chiefs have now won last 14 SU vs Broncos (longest in series history) though have only covered 2 of last 5 meetings and failed to do so Dec. 11 at Denver.
Last two in this series “over” as are Broncos last three this season following a 23-6 “under” run dating to outset of 2021.
KC has now covered its last three at Arrowhead as home team has now covered in seven straight Chiefs games.

Tech Play: Chiefs
Expert Picks

New Orleans vs. Philadelphia (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

Saints only 2-5 vs. spread on road this season, though the covers have come in the last two as visitor. NO also on 8-1 “under” run.
Birds only 3-5 last eight vs. spread but are 6-1 vs. points at Linc this season, also on 8-2 “over” run.

Tech Play: Eagles
Expert Picks

Cleveland vs. Washington (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

Browns now working on five straight “under” results after Saints last week.
Cleveland 4-3 as dog this season.
Wash 0-3 vs. line last three in 2022, also 9-3-1 “under” since mid September (though “over” last week vs. Niners).

Tech Play: Browns, Under
Expert Picks

Jacksonville vs. Houston (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

Texans have been the bogey team for Jags, Houston has won outright last nine meetings, covers in five of last six.
But Jags rolling down the stretch with wins and covers last three and four of last five games.
J’ville had been “over” four in a row prior to the cold and winds of MetLife vs. Jets last Thursday.
Texans working on three covers in a row, also “under” 5-2 last seven.

Tech Play: Texans
Expert Picks

Chicago vs. Detroit (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

Lions won and covered 31-30 shootout at Soldier Field on Nov. 13, part of recent 7-0-1 spread uptick that was halted by Panthers last Sunday.
Detroit also on 12-5 “over” run after Carolina game.
Bears have lost last eight SU, 1-5 vs. spread last six, “over” 8-1 last nine this season.

Tech Play: Lions, Over
Expert Picks

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

Panthers won and covered first meeting (21-3) on October 23.
Carolina 7-2 vs. spread last nine commencing with that game, now also “over” last three this season (though still 8-7 “under” in 2022).
Bucs no covers last 12 in North America (0-11-1; line cover since Week 2 was in Munich vs. Seahawks on Nov. 13), also on 11-4 “under” run this season.

Tech Play: Panthers, Under
Expert Picks

Indianapolis vs. N.Y. Giants (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

Colts no spread magic this season, just 3-6 last nine vs. number after loss to Chargers on Monday, and 3-6 last nine vs. spread as visitor.
Also 15-5 “under” since late 2021. Giants 11-4 vs. spread this season, though just 1-2 as chalk.
NY “over’ 4-1-1 last six but had been strong “under” previously (30-10 “under” beforehand dating back to start of 2020 Covid season).

Tech Play: Giants, Under
Expert Picks

N.Y. Jets @ Seattle (FOX, 4:05 p.m.)

Jets 0-4 SU last four this season and 2-4 vs. spread last six, “under” last three and 10-5 “under” in 2022 campaign.
J-Men 5-2 vs. spread away.
Seahawks now 0-6 vs. spread last six this term and opened as a slight dog in this game.

Tech Play: Jets, Under
Expert Picks

San Francisco vs. Las Vegas (FOX, 4:05 p.m.)

Niners hot, won last eight SU, covered last six and seven of last eight, also now on 6-3 “over” run.
Raiders very low-variance this season, only 7-8 vs. spread, though 4-2 vs. spread at home, also “over” 4-1-1 at Allegiant Stadium.

Tech Play: Niners, Over
Expert Picks

L.A. Rams vs. L.A. Chargers (CBS, 4:25 p.m.)

Well it’s home stadium for both!
Rams playing a bit bit better with wins in 2 of 3 and covers in 3 of 4 after Denver romp, Rams have now covered last three at So Fi after 1-6 spread mark previous seven as host.
Bolts 6-4 as chalk this season after Colts win on Monday, before which they had only one win by more than six points (34-24 at Houston; now it's two wins by more than six), also “under” 6-1-1 after Colts game on Monday.

Tech Play: Rams, Under
Expert Picks

Minnesota vs. Green Bay (CBS, 4:25 p.m.)

Pack has won 15 games in a row SU in December, though this game will be on January 1. (GNB played only three games this December.)
Home team has won and covered last three meetings, Pack has won and covered last three in 2022.
Minn no covers last three this season and just 6-8-1 vs. spread despite 12-3 SU mark.
Pack had been “over” four in a row before close “unders” last two.
Vikings now on 17-6 “over” run since mid 2021 (“over” last five and 10-5 this season).

Tech Play: Packers, Over
Expert Picks

Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore (NBC, 8:20 p.m.)

Now the Sunday night game.
Underdog side has covered last ten meetings in this series.
Ravens won and covered narrowly in 16-14 grinder at Pitt on Dec 11, last three meetings all decided by 3 points or fewer, last five decided by five or fewer.
Last four meetings “under” as well.
Steel has won and covered four of last five this campaign (only L in that mix vs. Balt), also “under” 11-6 reg season since late 2021.
Tomlin 5-4 as dog in 2022, 20-10 as dog since early 2019. Ravens 1-5-1 vs. spread as host this season, 1-6-1 since late 2021, also “under” 6-1 last seven in 2022.

Tech Play: Steelers, Under
Expert Picks

Monday, January 2

Buffalo vs. Cincinnati (ESPN, 8:15 p.m.)

Bengals have now won and covered seven in a row, on 20-3 spread uptick since mid-December of 2021.
Also 14-5-1 “under” last 20 since late 2021.
If Cincy also remains a dog here, note eight straight spread covers when getting points.
Bills only 3-6 last nine on board this campaign, also “under” 10-5 (though “over” last two).

Tech Play: Bengals, Under
Expert Picks

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