NFL Betting Trends – Week 18

Bruce Marshall Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Betting expert and handicapper Bruce Marshall breaks down the top trends for the entire Week 18 NFL slate. Check them out below and be sure to visit our NFL picks page for expert selections on games this week!

Saturday, January 7

Kansas City vs. Las Vegas (ABC, 4:30 p.m.)

• Raiders have covered three of last five meetings including narrow 30-29 loss at Arrowhead on October 10.
• Vegas has covered four of last five as dog this season.
• Chiefs no covers last four away this season, just 4-8 last 12 vs. spread in 2022.

Tech Play: Raiders, Over
Expert Picks

Tennessee vs. Jacksonville (ABC, 8:15 p.m.)

• AFC South title on line, Jags still have possible path as wild card even with a loss.
• J’ville romped first meeting at Nashville on Dec. 11 by 36-22 count, start of four game win and cover streak into this weekend.
• Titans now no wins or covers last six this season, also “under” 15-7 since late 2021.

Tech Play: Jaguars, Under
Expert Picks

Sunday, January 8

Baltimore vs. Cincinnati (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

• Bengals have covered all three meetings since last season, though did lose outright 19-17 (covered +3) at M&T Bank Stadium on October 11.
• Also on 14-5-1 “under” run into last weekend.
• Cincy also won and covered last seven this season into last weekend and on 20-3 spread uptick since last December.
• Ravens 11-2 “under” after another low-scoring game on Sunday night vs. Steel.

Tech Play: Bengals, Under
Expert Picks

New England vs. Buffalo (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

• Belichick secures wild card with a win.
• Bills have won and covered last three meetings since late last season (including playoffs) by 104-48 margin.
• Buff however only 3-6 vs. spread last nine this season into last weekend.
• Belichick has dropped last four as dog this season.

Tech Play: Bills
Expert Picks

Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

• Steelers have covered 5 of last 6 reg season meetings, though that doesn’t count the Brownies’ playoff win two years ago.
• Pitt has covered five of last six and eight of last eleven this season after dramatic win over Ravens on Sunday night.
• Browns working on six straight “unders” after win at Wash, Steel on 9-2 “under” run at home.

Tech Play: Steelers, Under
Expert Picks

Carolina vs. New Orleans (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

• Panthers won and covered 22-14 at Charlotte on Sept 25, last four meetings “under” as well.
• Carolina had covered seven of previous nine this season before loss at Tampa Bay last week.
• Panthers now also “over” last four in 2022.
• Saints have won last three outright in 2022 and now “under” last five and eight of last nine this season.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Houston vs. Indianapolis (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

• Ugh? Teams tied on opening day, Colts had won and covered five of previous six meetings, but inclined to dismiss Indy’s pre-2022 numbers.
• Colts working on six SU losses in a row, 1-4 vs. line last five in 2022, also “overs” four of last five as defense falters.
• Texans had covered and gone “over” three in a row prior to loss vs. Jags last week.
• Tech edge-slight to “over” and Texans, based on “totals” and recent trends.

Tech Play: Texans, Over
Expert Picks

Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

• Bucs already have sewn up NFC South and 4 seed in NFC playoffs.
• Brady is 5-0 SU vs. Falcons since arriving at TB in 2020 and he is slated to play this week.
• Bucs had dropped five straight vs. line prior to Carolina win last week and were 1-11-1 vs. spread preceding 13 games.
• TB also “under” 11-5 this season (though “over” 2 of last 3).
• Falcs “under” three in a row and 7-1 last eight “under” as well, 1-4 vs. spread last five at Mercedes Benz.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Minnesota vs. Chicago (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

• Bears have lost last three outright in series but did cover at US Bank Stadium in October 9 loss at Vikings.
• Chicago losing streak now at 9 and 1-6 vs. line last seven after loss at Lions, “over” 8-2 last ten (though “under” 2 of last 3).
• Minn no covers last four in 2022 after Pack loss last week, also “over” last six this season.

Tech Play: Over
Expert Picks

N.Y. Jets vs. Miami (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

• Both stumbling down stretch, each losing five in a row outright.
• Jets won big 40-17 in first meeting, NY also on a 9-2 “under” run since that October 9 matchup.
• Dolphins only 3-9 vs. spread since breaking 3-0 from gate this season.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

L.A. Chargers vs. Denver (CBS, 4:25 p.m.)

• Broncos covered in OT loss vs Bolts at Inglewood on October 17.
• Denver has won and covered last three at home vs. Chargers and Broncos have actually covered four of last five this season (1-0 for Rosburg), with the only real stinker vs. Rams on Xmas Day.
• Denver now “over” four in a row after 23-6 “under” run prior.
• Chargers have won and covered last four this season, 6-2 vs. spread away in 2022, and 3-0-1 “under” last four games.

Tech Play: Broncos
Expert Picks

LA Rams vs. Seattle (FOX, 4:25 p.m.)

• Hawks won but didn’t cover first meeting, Rams have actually covered last four and eight of last nine series matchups.
• LA, however, no covers last five away from home this season.
• Seattle had failed to cover six in a row before win over Jets.

Tech Play: Rams
Expert Picks

N.Y. Giants vs. Philadelphia (CBS, 4:25 p.m.)

• Now it’s Eagles that need the win and Giants don’t!
• Birds won first meeting handily 48-22 on Dec. 11, but last six meetings vs. spread split evenly, and Philly has dropped three in a row vs. line since (last two outright losses) and just 3-6 vs. spread last nine on board this season.
• Eagles were also “over” 8-2 previous ten before Saints game landed on “under” last Sunday.
• Philly was also 6-1 SU and vs. line at Linc in 2022 before last week vs. the Saints. Note Giants have covered five of last six and 12 of 16 this season for Brian Daboll.

Tech Play: Giants
Expert Picks

Arizona vs. San Francisco (FOX, 4:25 p.m.)

• Niners won big 38-10 at Mexico City on Nov. 21, series turnaround after losing both vs Big Red last season.
• SF 11-1 SU, 10-2 vs. spread last 12 at Levi’s since mid 2021.
• Cards have covered last two outings this season but just 2-5 vs. spread previous seven.

Tech Play: Niners
Expert Picks

Dallas vs. Washington (FOX, 4:25 p.m.)

• Dallas won first meeting at Arlington by 25-10 count on Oct 2 with Cooper Rush at controls.
• Cowboys have won and covered all three meetings since last season.
• Wash fading, 0-3-1 SU and 0-4 vs. spread last four this season after 6-11 SU, 6-0-1 run vs. spread in preceding seven games.
• Cowboys had been “over” five straight and seven of eight before the odd game last Thursday vs. Titans, while Wash on 6-2-1 “under” run.

Tech Play: Cowboys, Over
Expert Picks

Detroit vs. Green Bay (NBC, 8:20 p.m.)

• Lions only 3-19 SU their last 22 at Lambeau, though the three wins have all come since 2015.
• Detroit will need help from Rams vs. Seahawks to sneak into last wild card; Pack wins and it is in as seventh seed.
• Lions only one loss last ten vs. spread this season (8-1-1 last ten; 8-1 last nine), and the 15-9 Detroit win over Green Bay on Nov 6 is what began the late-season uptick.
• Lions 9-2 vs. spread last eleven vs. Pack.
• Though GB has won and covered last four into Sunday night.
• Lions also 12-6 “over” run since late 2021.

Tech Play: Lions, Over
Expert Picks

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Bruce Marshall

Bruce's unique and colorful brand of football and basketball analysis, as well as informed commentary on the national and international sports scene, has made him an in-demand guest for many years on numerous sports talk radio and TV shows across the country. Bruce's vast array of editorial work has also been featured in VegasInsider, along with the Las Vegas Review-Journal and New York Post. Bruce, who is also in the midst of several book projects, combines all of his work while splitting time between Celebration, Florida and Henderson, Nevada. More from Bruce Marshall