Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

The 18th and final week of NFL regular season action will kick things off on Saturday mid-afternoon with an AFC West clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders. Coverage begins from Allegiant Stadium in Vegas at 4:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Updated on 11/29/2024

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS BETTING PREDICTION

The fate of both these teams’ had already been decided prior to Week 18, considering the Chiefs punched their ticket to the postseason with a win over Houston a few weeks back, and contrarily, the Raiders were eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to San Francisco in their latest outing.

However, with the Chiefs likely still needing a win in order to lock up the one-seed, and the Raiders desperately trying to prove that they are much better than their record currently indicates, both squads should have plenty left to play for this Saturday.

The Chiefs have hosted four straight AFC Championship Games. So, clearly Andy Reid’s squad takes pride in claiming homefield advantage in the postseason. And while admittedly, Kansas City has become notorious for playing down to lesser opponents in certain situations over the last few seasons, that’s been far from the case this year.

Of course, the Chiefs had their one head-scratching blunder against Indy back in Week 3 (L, 20-17). But aside from that, Kansas City’s only losses on the season have come in highly competitive matchups against top shelf squads in the Bills and Bengals. So, I wouldn’t worry about a sluggish performance from Patrick Mahomes and co.

In the last nine matchups between the Raiders and Chiefs, these squads have combined for a stunning average of 56.3 points per game, with at least one team eclipsing the 28-point mark in all nine of those affairs, and both teams breaking 29+ points in three of their last five.

The over-under for this matchup is stationed comfortably north of OU 50. So, the oddsmakers are clearly aware of the fireworks that have ensued between these AFC West foes in their recent meetings.

However, I still expect this matchup go 'over' the lofty total between a Raiders’ squad that’s now scored 27+ points in four of their last six games, and a Chiefs’ squad that’s averaging 27.8 PPG across their last eight.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 31, Raiders 24
Best Bet: Over 52.5 (-110)

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS BETTING ODDS

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Saturday, January 7, 2023
Matchup: AFC West
Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Time-TV: ABC, 4:30 p.m. ET

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING ANALYSIS

The departure of All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill was almost certainly expected to take a toll on the Chiefs’ offensive attack this season.

However, as long as Mahomes is at the helm, their formula appears to be bulletproof, considering the Chiefs have continued to pace the entire league in both scoring and total yardage on the way to a 13-3 record in their first campaign without Hill.

The Chiefs have now scored 27+ points or more in three of their last four games, and they’ve racked up a ridiculous average of 37.8 PPG in their last six matchups against the Raiders.

So, there’s no reason to feel confident in the Raiders’ ability to hold this squad in check on the defensive side of the ball after surrendering 24+ points in two of their last three contests.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS BETTING ANALYSIS

Regardless of the circumstances, these squads almost always get trapped in a back-and-forth scoring cycle for one reason or another, which comes as no coincidence.

The main reason we often see so much scoring between these teams is simply because of their poor defense over the years. And this year has been no different for them, with the Raiders currently ranked 25th in points allowed at 24 PPG, and the Chiefs ranked 20th at 22 PPG.

However, the frequency in which Kansas City and Vegas both pass the ball also helps pad their scoring numbers in terms of clock stoppages and big play potential, with both squads averaging over 34 pass attempts per game on the year.

And I highly doubt the Raiders will stray away from their usual gameplan with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback after carving up the Niners’ top-ranked defense for 365 yards and three touchdowns in a 37-34 loss in their previous outing.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS BETTING TRENDS

• The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
• The Chiefs are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
• The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
• The total has gone OVER in five straight matchups between the Raiders and Chiefs.
• The total has gone OVER in five of Las Vegas' last six home games.
• The Chiefs are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against Las Vegas.
• The total has gone OVER in 10 of Kansas City's last 12 road games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson