Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Picks, Predictions, Odds

Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

The NFL playoffs continue on Sunday afternoon in Buffalo with an AFC Wild Card matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

Updated on 12/22/2024

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MIAMI DOLPHINS vs. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING PREDICTION

The Dolphins are in nearly an impossible predicament against its division rivals on Sunday. Miami is turning to its third-string quarterback, rookie Skylar Thompson to keep its season going after starter Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out due to remaining in the concussion protocol.

The Bills enter Sunday’s contest as the richest favorite in Wild Card history, laying nearly two touchdowns. Buffalo is seeking its eighth consecutive victory, while topping the 32-point mark in each of the last three games.

It’s tough to imagine how Miami will score points on Sunday without Tua, as the Dolphins posted 11, 21, 16, and 17 points in the four games with either Thompson or Teddy Bridgewater starting.

The most points the Dolphins have scored in the last six games came at Buffalo in Week 15 in a 32-29 defeat. Tagovailoa threw two touchdown passes and running back Raheem Mostert rushed for 136 yards in the loss, but Mostert is also sidelined with a broken thumb.

Buffalo began the season with Unders in 10 of its first 13 games before drilling the Over in the last three contests. The Bills own a solid 5-1 Under mark in games as a double-digit favorite with the lone Over against Tennessee in Week 2 hitting by one point above the total.

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Dolphins 10
Best Bet: Under 43.5 (-110)

MIAMI DOLPHINS vs. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING ODDS

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MIAMI DOLPHINS vs. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, January 15, 2023
Matchup: AFC Wild Card
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
Time-TV: CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET

SUNDAY'S BEST BET

MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING ANALYSIS

Mike McDaniel’s first season as head coach of the Dolphins was the ultimate roller-coaster ride. Following the offseason acquisition of star wide receiver Tyreke Hill from Kansas City, the Dolphins bolted out to a 3-0 start, which included outright underdog wins over the Ravens and Bills.

Tagovailoa sustained a concussion in a Week 4 loss at Cincinnati, the start of a three-game losing streak. Tua returned in Week 7 against Pittsburgh, as the Dolphins went on to win five consecutive games to vault to 8-3, while scoring 30 or more points four times in that stretch.

Disaster struck as the Dolphins travelled to California for a pair of games, losing to the 49ers and Chargers before falling short in a three-point defeat at frigid Buffalo in Week 15.

Tua was concussed again in a Christmas Day defeat to Green Bay, virtually ending his season in which he threw for 3,548 yards and 25 touchdowns. Miami lost at New England the following week before finally ending its five-game slide in an 11-6 home triumph over the rival Jets to sneak into the playoffs.

From an ATS standpoint, the Dolphins managed to cover three of its final four games, while cashing in both meetings against Buffalo in the underdog role. In the totals department, Miami put together a 7-1 Under mark at home, while hitting the Over in seven of nine games away from Hard Rock Stadium.

BUFFALO BILLS BETTING ANALYSIS

Could a third time be a charm for Josh Allen and the Bills in the playoffs? Following heartbreaking losses to Kansas City in each of the last postseasons, Buffalo looks to get over the top in the AFC, coming off its third consecutive AFC East crown.

The Bills posted a 13-3 record, marking only the second time since 1991 that Buffalo has won at least 13 games in a season. The team went through a traumatic event in the Week 17 matchup at Cincinnati in which defensive back Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest on the field following a tackle. Thankfully, Hamlin’s life was saved on the field and he is recovering back in Buffalo.

Buffalo wrapped up the second seed in the AFC playoffs with a 38-23 home triumph over New England in Week 18, highlighted by a pair of kickoff returns for touchdowns by Nyheim Hines. 

The Bills have lost three games this season, all by three points or less. The first one coming at Miami in Week 3 by a 21-19 count, while the Jets tripped up Buffalo, 20-17 in Week 9, and Minnesota put together a furious rally in a 33-30 overtime shocker the following week at Highmark Stadium.

Buffalo has hit plenty of Unders as a double-digit favorite, but Sean McDermott’s team has struggled cashing tickets in this role. The Bills are 2-4 ATS when laying at least 10 points this season, with the last three wins in this situation coming by 10, 3, and 8 points. Buffalo rolled Tennessee, 41-7 in Week 2 and cruised past Pittsburgh in Week 5 by a 38-3 count, which also came against a rookie quarterback in Kenny Pickett.

MIAMI DOLPHINS vs. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING TRENDS

• Bills are 3-0 Over in last three games
• Bills are 3-1 Over in last four playoff games
• Dolphins are 7-2 Over in nine road games
• Dolphins are 5-1 ATS vs. AFC East opponents

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Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers