Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs meet at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ont. on Saturday night for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, a best-of-seven series. The series is tied 3-3. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Lightning 3, Maple Leafs 2

Best Bet

Lightning +107
Under 6.5 (-105)

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS PREDICTIONS

The Maple Leafs played the Lightning tough in Game 6, scoring two goals in the final 34 seconds of the second period to take a 3-2 lead to the third. Nikita Kucherov notched a power-play goal halfway through the third period to force overtime, and Brayden Point scored at 18:04 of the extra session to keep the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions alive and well.

Now, it's Game 7 in Toronto. For the Maple Leafs, that usually doesn't end well, but it also is a little unusual that the Leafs are on home ice for a decisive Game 7.

The Leafs haven't advanced past the first round since 2004, and that's well publicized. They have fallen in Game 7 in the first round on four straight occasions since ousting the Ottawa Senators in Game 7 of the opening round of the 2004 playoffs, their last series victory. Since, the Leafs lost in Game 7 of the first round in Boston in 2013, in Boston in 2018, in Boston in 2019 and then they lost on home ice last season against Montreal. The Leafs have lost a Game 7 on home ice just twice in franchise history, also falling to Ontario native son Wayne Gretzky and the Los Angeles Kings in the Western Conference Finals in 1993.

Toronto has dropped seven consecutive postseason series, and they're now 0-9 in the past nine games when it could have eliminated an opponent.

The Lightning played in just one Game 7 during their past two Stanley Cup championship runs, edging the New York Islanders in the Eastern Conference Semifinals last season. The Lightning lost in the ECF in 2018 against the Washington Capitals, and they're 1-2 in the past three Game 7s.

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TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING ODDS

Lightning +107
Maple Leafs -118
Lightning +1.5 (-227)
Maple Leafs -1.5 (+200)
Over 6.5 (-110)
Under 6.5 (-105)

More Odds | Futures Odds

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Saturday, May 10, 2022
• Matchup: Atlantic vs. Atlantic
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena
• Location: Toronto, Ont.
• TV-Time: TNT, 7 p.m. ET

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 54-26-8
• ATS: 41-47
• O/U: 49-37-2

Well, the Lightning did it again. Not only did they stave off elimination in Game 6 on home ice, but Andrei Vasilevskiy now improved to 17-0 in the past 17 games following a postseason loss dating back to its implosion in 2019. That's impressive. Now, they look to top the Maple Leafs, a snakebitten franchise in the postseason. Can Tampa Bay add to the woes of the Toronto franchise?

The good news is that the Lightning forced a Game 7, but the bad news is that they are 0-4 in the past four games following a win. They're also 2-6 in the previous eight as an underdog, and 2-6 in the past eight as a road 'dog, too.

As far as totals, it's all about the OVER, going 18-5 in the past 23 games overall, while cashing in five of the past six on the road. They OVER is 9-4 in the past 13 games as a 'dog, and 5-0 in the past five in this series.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 57-23-8
• ATS: 42-46
• O/U: 50-31-7

The Maple Leafs have the Lightning on home ice for this elimination game, but Game 7s haven't been kind of them over the years. Well, the playoffs, in general, haven't been kind to the Leafs over the years.

Toronto is a solid 37-14 in the past 51 games as a home favorite, and 50-18 in the past 68 when favored, but do trends trump history and demons? The Maple Leafs have a ton of them, and a ton of bad history, too. While the Leafs have played very well in games which matter little, they seem to curl up in a little ball and choke when it matters most, and that's hard to ignore, especially when risking your hard-earned lettuce on a game.

Like Tampa, the OVER is the dominant trend lately, going 33-14-6 in the past 53 as a favorite, and 43-16-7 in the past 66 games overall. After all, the Leafs do have Hart Trophy finalist Auston Matthews, and he has helped contribute to the OVER all season. Will this finally be the game the Leafs break through, and break the curse? Who would have ever thought just making the second round in the Center of the Hockey Universe would mean so much?

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS CONCLUSION

This is actually a very easy game to pick. Unlike most other Game 7s, which really can go either way, the truth of the matter is that the Lightning have a tremendous recent postseason history, while the Maple Leafs showings in the playoffs since 2004 are, well, let's just say, dog feces.

The favorite has cashed in five of the past seven meetings between these teams, but all of that can be tossed right out the window. This is a Game 7, and whatever has happened before in this series is now meaningless. We have one franchise with a ton of recent success, and one which hasn't celebrated a championship since there were just six teams in the league back in 1967.

The Lightning will win, and add to the growing number of ugly horror stories of recent Toronto Maple Leafs hockey. The only thing that will change in this Game 7 is that the scores will be a little lower than the past five games in this series.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING TRENDS

• Lightning are 2-6 in the past eight games as an underdog.
• Lightning are 2-6 in the past eight as a road underdog.
• Lightning are 0-4 in the past four following a victory.
• Lightning are 10-3 in the past 13 as a playoff underdog.
• Maple Leafs haven't won a playoff series since 2004.
• Maple Leafs are 0-4 in the past four Game 7s.
• Maple Leafs are 0-9 in past nine with a chance to eliminate an opponent.
• OVER is 18-5 in the past 23 games overall for the Lightning.
• OVER is 5-1 in the past six road games for the Lightning.
• OVER is 9-4 in the past 13 games as a 'dog for the Lightning.
• OVER is 43-16-7 in the past 66 games for the Maple Leafs.
• Favorite is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.
• Home team is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.
• OVER is 5-0 in the past five meetings.

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Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish