Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

11 minute read

The Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. on Sunday afternoon for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, a best-of-seven series. The Lightning lead the series 2-0. Puck drop is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Lightning 5, Panthers 3

Best Bet

Lightning -130
Over 6.5 (-105)

FLORIDA PANTHERS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING PREDICTIONS

The two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning took both games in Sunrise against the Florida Panthers, swiping away home-ice advantage. Now, the champs look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead on home ice, potentially pushing the Panthers to the brink.

Tampa Bay used its championship-winning formula from the past couple of seasons in the first two games. Play smart defense, get good goaltending and score timely goals. It sounds rather simplistic, and easy, but it's not. The Panthers registered an NHL-high 122 points in the regular season, while posting a league-best plus-94 goal differential. In addition, the Cats were 34-7 at home during the regular season, so for the Lightning to hold them to just two total goals in two games is nothing short of spectactular.

Look for more of the same. The Lightning won't deviate from the plan with a two-game cushion. The Panthers will need to take more chances and crash the net a lot. I think the fact Florida takes more chances will lead to more breakaways for Tampa, and more scoring than we saw in the first two games at FLA Live Arena.

Updated on 12/26/2024

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FLORIDA PANTHERS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ODDS

Panthers +108
Lightning -130
Panthers -1.5 (+215)
Lightning +1.5 (-263)
Over 6.5 (-105)
Under 6.5 (-115)

More Odds | Futures Odds

FLORIDA PANTHERS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Sunday, May 21, 2022
• Matchup: Atlantic vs. Atlantic
• Venue: Amalie Arena
• Location: Tampa, Fla.
• TV-Time: TNT, 1:30 p.m. ET

FLORIDA PANTHERS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 62-22-6
• ATS: 44-46
• O/U: 47-35-8

The Panthers are going to have to find a way to get the puck in the net, or they're going to be on the golf course soon. A total of two goals in the first two games is not going to get it done against anybody, but especially the two-time defending champs.

Perhaps a little extra rest will get the Panthers on track, as they're 11-3 in the past 14 games when playing on two days of rest. Maybe getting out of town will help, too, as Florida is 19-7 in the past 26 games on the road.

In terms of the totals, the UNDER hit in the first two games of this series, and the UNDER is 11-5-4 in the past 20 games overall, while going 3-0-2 in the past five when playing on two days of rest.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 57-26-8
• ATS: 44-47
• O/U: 49-40-2

The Lightning are looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. On home ice the Lightning have won 59 of the past 84 games, or a .702 winning percentage. Tampa has won each of its past six games played on a Sunday, for whatever that's worst, too. They're also 11-5 in the past 16 on two days of rest.

In the Conference Semifinals round, the Lightning have a ridiculous 26-5 in the past 31 games, while cashing in four straight games overall.

For totals, the OVER has connected in eight of the past nine games at Amalie Arena, while hitting in 13 of the past 18 games overall. However, the UNDER is 4-0 in the past four Conference Semifinals round games, including the first two in this series.

FLORIDA PANTHERS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING CONCLUSION

The Panthers were not necessarily terrible in the first two games at home, losing 4-1 in Game 1, and 2-1 in Game 2. But the Lightning did all the little things right, gaining home-ice advantage. Game 3 is obviously a huge game for the Panthers. Lose, and they're pretty much done. Win, and they still have plenty of work to do, but they'd be right back in this series.

I think the Lightning are able to keep their foot on the gas, pushing the Panthers to the brink, however. And after a pair of UNDER results, the OVER should be a good possibility here. The Panthers are going to have to try and generate some high-danger chances, ramping up the scoring. The Lightning will likely get some odd-man rushes back the other way as a result. Look for more than seven total goals here, too.

FLORIDA PANTHERS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING TRENDS

• Panthers are 19-7 in the past 26 road games.
• Panthers are 11-3 in the past 14 on two days of rest.
• Lightning are 4-0 in the past four games overall.
• Lightning are 59-25 in the past 84 home games.
• Lightning are 26-5 in the past 31 Conference Semifinals games.
• Lightning are 11-5 in the past 16 on two days of rest.
• UNDER is 11-5-4 in the past 20 games for the Panthers.
• UNDER is 3-0-2 in the past five on two days of rest for the Panthers.
• OVER is 13-5 in the past 18 games for the Lightning.
• OVER is 8-1 in the past nine home games for the Lightning.
• UNDER is 4-0 in the past five Conference Semifinals games for the Lightning.
• Favorite is 23-10 in the past 33 meetings.
• Panthers are 1-4 in the past five meetings.
• Panthers are 8-21 in the past 29 trips to Tampa.
• UNDER is 6-2 in the past eight meetings.
• OVER is 22-9 in the past 31 meetings in Tampa.

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Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish