Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Rangers Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Rangers meet at Madison Square Garden Thursday night for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, a best-of-seven series. The series is tied 2-2. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+.

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Score Prediction

Rangers 3, Lightning 2

Best Bet

Rangers +116
Under 5.5 (-141)

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. NEW YORK RANGERS PREDICTIONS

The Rangers fired out to a 2-0 series lead with a pair of victories on home ice in Games 1 and 2. As the series shifted to Amalie Arena in Tampa, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions looked the part. After being outscored 9-4 in the first two matchups, the Lightning outscored the Rangers 7-3 on home ice to level the series 2-2, essentially making this a best-of-three series for the right to face the Colorado Avalanche for all the marbles sometime next week.

The Lightning have used the formula which won them Lord Stanley's chalice in The Bubble in Toronto/Edmonton in 2020, as well as last season in capacity-restricted times. Defense and goaltending has been the name of the game, coupled with timely goals, strong penalty killing and a decent power play. The Lightning have allowed just six total goals across the past three games after coughing up six goals in the series opener. That Game 1 loss can mostly be attributed to being rusty following a sweep of the Florida Panthers and over a week off without game action. They're back, and that's bad news for the Rangers.

Or is it? The Rangers have registered eight consecutive victories on home ice since opening the playoffs with a 4-3 triple-overtime loss in Game 1 MSG against the Pittsburgh Penguins. During the eight-game win streak the Rangers have outscored the opposition 35-16. So while the books are quick to favor the Lightning, based upon their recent playoff history and experience, the Rangers have been dang good on home ice, and tough to beat in these playoffs because of it.

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TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. NEW YORK RANGERS BETTING ODDS

Lightning -125
Rangers +116
Lightning -1.5 (+205)
Rangers +1.5 (-233)
Over 5.5 (+125)
Under 5.5 (-141)

More Odds | Futures Odds

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. NEW YORK RANGERS BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Thursday, June 9, 2022
• Matchup: Atlantic vs. Metropolitan
• Venue: Madison Square Garden
• Location: New York, N.Y.
• TV-Time: ESPN/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 61-28-8
• ATS: 47-50
• O/U: 50-45-2

The Lightning had won three straight on the road before losing the first two games in this series at MSG by a combined 9-4. But Game 2 was a donnybrook, a tilly, and it could easily have gone the way of the Lightning with a late goal with an extra attacker to force OT. It didn't, but they have fought back from and 0-2 deficit and look just as dominant as the previous two rounds.

Tampa Bay has won eight of the past 10 games overall, while going 6-1 in the past seven games following a win. The Lightning just has a knack for stacking victories in the postseason. However, they are 1-5 in the past six games as a road favorite.

For the total, the UNDER is 8-1 in the past nine games for the Lightning, while the UNDER is 4-1 in the past five games on the road. The UNDER is also 5-1 in the past six playoff games when favored, and 5-1-1 in the previous seven Eastern Conference Finals Round games.

NEW YORK RANGERS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 62-30-8
• ATS: 53-47
• O/U: 42-55-3

The Rangers have been fun to watch, and while the Lightning have obviously been champs the past two seasons, New York is new blood, and Colorado is already in the Stanley Cup Finals after a lengthy drought. A potential New York-Colorado matchup would be a boon for TV executives, and many fans would see a matchup of two teams which haven't played for a championship as a breath of fresh air. But the Rangers have work to do, as beating the Lightning in two of three games is a tall order. At least they get two of the final three in this series on home ice.

At home, the Rangers have won 44 of the past 64 games, while going 5-1 in the past six as a home underdog. However, New York is just 17-40 in the past 57 playoff games as an underdog, and 3-8 in the previous 11 overall as a 'dog.

In terms of the totals, the UNDER has connected in eight of the past 11 games overall, while going 6-2 in the past eight as an underdog for the Blueshirts. The UNDER is also 7-3 in the past 10 when playing on a day of rest. The UNDER is 10-3-1 in the past 14 playoff games as a 'dog, too, so most arrows point toward a low-scoring game in this pivotal Game 5.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. NEW YORK RANGERS CONCLUSION

The Lightning are the champs, and to be the champs, you have to beat the champs. That cliche' is probably beaten to death, especially during playoff time in both the NBA and NFL, but it rings true. The Rangers are the new kids on the block, and the Lightning are the grizzled veterans of playoff success, and they won't let go of their grip on the Cup easily.

Like we saw last round from the Carolina Hurricanes, all good things must come to a close. Carolina had won the first seven games at home in the postseason. New York has won eight in a row on home ice. But the intensity has been ratcheted up a bit, and the lights will be brighter than at any point this playoff season. I think that this is a game with plenty of defense, and the UNDER cashes for the fourth straight game. And I wouldn't be surprised if a winner is not determined until an overtime period or two. New York should escape with the victory, pushing Tampa Bay to the brink.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. NEW YORK RANGERS BETTING TRENDS

• Lightning are 8-2 in the past 10 games overall.
• Lightning are 51-23 in the past 74 as a favorite.
• Lightning are 35-16 in the past 51 playoff games as a fave.
• Lightning are 6-1 in the past seven following a win.
• Rangers are 4-1 in the past five games overall.
• Rangers are 44-20 in the past 64 home games.
• Rangers are 5-1 in the past six as a home 'dog.
• Rangers are 3-8 in the past 11 as an underdog.
• UNDER is 8-1 in the past nine for the Lightning.
• UNDER is 4-1 in the past five road games for the Lightning.
• UNDER is 5-1 in the past six as a favorite for the Lightning.
• UNDER is 8-3 in the past 11 overall for the Rangers.
• UNDER is 6-2 in the past eight as a 'dog for the Rangers.
• UNDER is 10-3-1 in the past 14 as a playoff 'dog for the Rangers.
• Home team is 4-0 in the past four meetings.
• Underdog is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.
• UNDER is 5-1 in the past six meetings.

Betting On The NHL Playoffs

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Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish