2028 Presidential Election Odds: VP Vance Very Early Front-Runner

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

2 minute read

Presidential election odds for 2028 seem like a crazy topic to broach, with the 2024 election barely behind us. Donald Trump's second inauguration is still a month and a half away.

But that's not stopping bookmakers from posting odds to win the 2028 presidential election. Incoming Republican Vice President J.D. Vance is the favorite, followed by Democratic Govs. Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro. And the fourth choice might surprise you: Michelle Obama.

Here's everything you need to know about 2028 presidential election odds: action, line movement and betting trends, with insights from sportsbooks in Canada and the United Kingdom/Ireland, where betting on politics is legal.

2028 Presidential Election Odds

Vance's Rise, Kamala's Demise

In the middle of the night, as Nov. 5 moved toward Nov. 6 and Donald Trump was declared winner of the 2024 election, UK sportsbooks were already busy calculating U.S. presidential election odds for 2028. No surprise, the incoming vice president led the way.

"We've had odds available since pretty much as soon as the previous election finished," Ladbrokes head of political betting Kyle McGrath said. "J.D. Vance seems the most obvious candidate. He opened as the +350 favorite and has shortened into +275.

"At this point, in the absence of any confirmed opponents, he's the obvious favorite."

On the other hand, Trump and Vance's opponents in 2024 are miles behind.

"Kamala Harris is +3300 and Tim Walz +5000, so the Democrat side of the betting is wide open."

Newsom, Shapiro and ... Surprise?

It's clear that oddsmakers feel Kamala Harris' national political career is over, and ditto for Tim Walz. So who holds the early Democratic mantle in 2028 presidential election odds?

"Gavin Newsom at +800 and Josh Shapiro at +1000 are second and third in the betting, as the perceived frontrunners at this stage for the Democratic nomination," McGrath said.

Newsom is the California governor, while Shapiro is the governor of Pennsylvania.

But the fourth choice might be the one who gets Democratic voters most enthused. That is, if she chooses to run, which is very iffy.

"Rounding out the top four is Michelle Obama at +1600," McGrath said, noting there's strong early interest in the former First Lady. "She's already the biggest liability in our book, despite the fact that the price should be twice as big, in my opinion.

"I wouldn't back her with your money."

Others in the Mix

Ladbrokes has a few other prospects in 2028 U.S. presidential election odds. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is the +2000 co-fifth choice, along with Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Buttigieg.

Gabbard, a former member of the House of Representatives, is Trump's nominee to be Director of National Intelligence for the upcoming administration. With Harris' defeat in the 2024 election, Buttiegieg is on his way out as President Joe Biden's Secretary of Transportation.

Then comes a quintet of prospects at +2500:

• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (Republican)
• Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (Democrat)
• Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (Republican)
• Nikki Haley, former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the UN (Republican)
• Donald Trump Jr. (Republican)

DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy all ran in the 2024 Republican primary.

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson