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Featured Last Updated Jul 2 2024, 3:48 PM

2024 US Presidential Election Odds: First Debate Sparks Slippage For Biden vs Trump

Patrick Everson
Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert
3 minute read

U.S. presidential election odds are a hot topic at the moment, in the wake of Thursday's first debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. And prices weren't moving in favor of the incumbent.

In fact, and perhaps more significant, Biden lost ground in odds to be the Democratic nominee for president, too. Trump moved to a slightly bigger favorite in odds on the U.S. presidential election.

Here's everything you need to know about 2024 US presidential election odds: action, line movement and betting trends, with insights from sportsbooks in the United Kingdom/Ireland, where betting on politics is legal.

US Presidential Election Odds

Busy Betting Day

Donald Trump saw improvement in the presidential election odds market. (Getty)

Ninety minutes of debate between Biden and Trump definitely made an impression on bettors Thursday night and into Friday. Biden visibly struggled throughout the debate, leading to a surge of action and improved odds on Trump both during and after the contest.

"It's been the busiest day so far for election betting," Ladbrokes head of political betting Kyle McGrath said on Friday afternoon. "At the start of the debate, we had Donald Trump -137 and Joe Biden +175 to win the election, with Biden a -700 [favorite] to win the Democratic nomination.

"Shortly after the debate concluded, this had changed to -175 Trump vs. +300 Biden, with Biden out to -175 just to win the Democratic nomination."

Biden eventually slipped as far as +400 to win the election and is at +300 at Ladbrokes a day after the debate.

Paddy Power also made several shifts in its US presidential election odds market. Before the debate, short favorite Trump was toggling between -137 and -150. Post-debate, Trump got to -200, and he's now -175.

Biden was shifting between +150 and +188 pre-debate, and +300/+400 in the aftermath. Biden is currently +400.

Paddy Power also made a significant shift on California Gov. Gavin Newsom's odds to win the U.S. presidential election. Newsom was +2000 pre-debate and moved all the way into +650 afterward.

"It looks like our customers believe Newsom is Biden his time. They're backing Newsom in droves," Paddy Power spokesperson Rachael Kane said, while apologizing for the Biden pun. "But Trump continues to be the favorite, in betting at least."

The Action Network's Andrew Lynch reported on significant odds shifts at BetMGM UK, as well.

Who Will Be The Nominee?

Gavin Newsom is making waves in Democratic nominee odds. (Getty)

As McGrath noted above, Democratic presidential nominee odds also got a jolt. Prior to the debate, Biden was the -700 favorite to be his party's nominee, a virtual lock as the incumbent.

But as the debate rolled on, and in the aftermath Friday, Biden's odds took a hit, while other Democrats started seeing action at Ladbrokes.

"Such was the business we were seeing on a range of Democratic candidates, we made the decision to suspend the betting on next Dem nominee overnight," McGrath said. "The [shortest] price Biden hit today as Dem nominee was -162. This has now settled down to -200 for the nomination."

Biden's odds pain proved to be an odds gain for the current governor of California.

"Gavin Newsom has been the biggest winner so far, in now to 7/1 from 25/1 to win the presidency, and 3/1 from 10/1 to win the nomination. We've also seen support for Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer," McGrath said.

There's been some buzz in political circles about Michelle Obama – wife of 44th President Barack Obama – as a possible nominee. But Ladbrokes isn't seeing much on that yet, with long odds on the former First Lady.

"Any sort of indication she would even consider running, though, and I'd expect her price to plummet instantly," McGrath said.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson
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