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2024 US Presidential Election Odds: Harris vs Trump Market Unfazed by DNC, RFK Jr.

Patrick Everson
Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert
2 minute read

U.S. presidential election odds remain a major topic as summer rolls along. We're now in the wake of the Democratic National Convention, and it's a tight race.

Vice President Kamala Harris is a slim favorite in odds to win the U.S. presidential election. Donald Trump, favored before President Joe Biden dropped out in July, is now a modest underdog.

Here's everything you need to know about 2024 US presidential election odds: action, line movement and betting trends, with insights from sportsbooks in Canada and the United Kingdom/Ireland, where betting on politics is legal.

US Presidential Election Odds

Busted Bounces

Donald Trump is now an underdog to get a second White House stint. (Getty)

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET TUESDAY, AUG. 27: Oftentimes in presidential politics, each party's national convention serves to boost that party's nominee. It's not unusual to see a notable post-convention bounce in U.S. presidential election odds.

However, that didn't really happen for Harris after her Aug. 22 acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention.

Then, just a day later, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he was dropping out as an independent candidate and endorsing Trump. But much like the DNC for Harris, RFK Jr's decision didn't really shake up the market.

At Ladbrokes Politics, Harris is -120 chalk, with Trump even money.

"The market is fairly stable. Harris [got] to -125 during the DNC and briefly drifted to -110 with the RFK Jr. news. But we're now back at -120," Ladbrokes head of political betting Kyle McGrath said. "So I think it's fair to say [the DNC] didn't have a huge influence.

"I guess we're looking at a relatively small, albeit potentially very influential, pool of voters who were believed to lean slightly toward Dems over Trump in a straight head-to-head. So you could look at it as though RFK's endorsement may well level that off. Essentially, it feels very much like it's 'as you were.'"

Looking at the bigger picture in odds to win the US presidential election, Harris continues to see more tickets and dollars in the wake of Biden's exit.

"Since Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris as the presumptive nominee, we've been overwhelmingly laying Harris over Trump. This has continued at the current prices," McGrath said. "So while we were originally anticipating laying Trump for a significant amount and cheering the Democratic nominee, we've now greened out our book."

Therefore, from a liability standpoint, Ladbrokes wouldn't mind if Election Day looked exactly as things look today.

"Of course, there's plenty of time for this to change. 'Stop the count,' as someone once famously said," McGrath said.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson
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