2024 Presidential Election Odds: Harris vs. Trump Down to the Wire

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

U.S. presidential election odds are a torridly hot topic, with Election Day moving into the night. And it's no longer a tight race.

Over the past couple of weeks, Donald Trump once again moved into the favorite's role in odds to win the U.S. presidential election. Then Vice President Kamala Harris rallied a bit and nudged to the favorite. But late Tuesday night, there's been a seismic shift.

Here's everything you need to know about 2024 presidential election odds: action, line movement and betting trends, with insights from sportsbooks in Canada and the United Kingdom/Ireland, where betting on politics is legal.

2024 Presidential Election Odds

Trump Surges Late

UPDATE 1 A.M. ET WEDNESDAY, NOV. 6: Just 12 hours ago at Ladbrokes, across the pond in the UK, Trump was modest -162 chalk in U.S. presidential election odds. Harris was a +148 underdog.

Two hours ago, Trump was a massive -3300 favorite in U.S. presidential election odds, with Harris +1400.

Still, in the wee hours, the election hasn't been called yet.

"It's not quite done yet," Ladbrokes head of political betting Kyle McGrath said, while acknowledging it seems done. "The night didn't go our way, by any means. We were obviously cheering a Harris win, or at worst a modest defeat where she carried a few swing states.

"Trump was actually a winner in the book across our various brands. But I'd expect the majority of that to be wiped out by the various state betting/derivative markets/specials we offered."

Current odds at Ladbrokes aren't available, but at BetMGM UK, it's now Trump -5000/Harris +1300. FanDuel Canada has gone much further, at Trump -20000/Harris +4000.

And at Kalshi, the prediction market for presidential election odds is at Trump 96%/Harris 4%.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET TUESDAY, NOV. 5: A spokesperson for Kalshi summed up the past 90 minutes thusly:

"While mainstream media networks are still saying races around the country are too close to call, traders are disagreeing. Everything on Kalshi is breaking for Trump."

Indeed, Kalshi's prediction market for 2024 presidential election odds soared toward the former president. Trump is now at 90% to win, with Harris at 10%.

In individual state markets, Trump is 85% to win Pennsylvania, 85% to win Michigan and 90% to win Wisconsin, and he's a big favorite in other swing states, too.

Further, Kalshi has Trump 75% to win the popular vote.

At FanDuel Canada in Ontario, where political betting is legal, Trump got as far as -5000 and is now -4500, with Harris +1260. At UK sportsbook Ladbrokes, it's Trump -3300/Harris +1400.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET TUESDAY, NOV. 5: There's a long way to go, with Pennsylvania still a huge linchpin for both candidates and far from decided. But the odds so far continue moving toward the former president.

"Trump has continued to progressively shorten in the outright market as the night has gone on. He's now -400 vs. +333 Harris," Ladbrokes head of political betting Kyle McGrath said at 9:30 p.m. ET.

Just 40 minutes later, as of 10:10 p.m. ET, Ladbrokes Politics exploded out to Trump -1000/Harris +750.

By 10:10 p.m. ET, Ladbrokes Politics had it at Trump -600/Harris +450. A couple of individual state markets are particular popular at Ladbrokes, as the night goes on.

"The biggest markets for us have been Pennsylvania and Georgia so far, with Trump being backed heavily as the early results were counted," McGrath said. "We're definitely cheering Harris at this point."

Much more on presidential odds, predictions and polls at The Action Network.

In Canada's Ontario province, where political betting is legal, FanDuel Canada is all the way out to Trump -1400. BetMGM Canada is at Trump -1000/Harris +750.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET TUESDAY, NOV. 5: With some vote tabulations starting to come in as polls close in the Eastern and Central time zones, Ladbrokes Politics is making significant adjustments in odds to win the presidential election.

"Donald Trump has shortened significantly since the results have started rolling in. He's now -225 vs. +188 for Kamala Harris," said Kyle McGrath, head of political betting for Ladbrokes.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY, NOV. 5: Donald Trump briefly stretched out a bit more over the past few hours in Kalshi's prediction market for 2024 presidential election odds. That's attributed to early news from one of the swing states.

"Trump's dramatic spike in Wisconsin aided his push toward 60% nationally," a Kalshi spokesperson said.

Between 4-5 p.m. ET, Harris' 8% lead in odds to win Wisconsin vanished, as she went from 54% to 50% and Trump climbed from 46 to 50%. Since then, however, Harris recovered most of that, with the VP now at 53% and Trump at 47% to win Wisconsin.

With that recovery, the national numbers tightened, with Kalshi now at Trump 56%/Harris 44%.

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET TUESDAY, NOV. 5: Election Day voting is well underway, and betting/trading markets continue to show a close race that's quite fluid. At UK/Ireland sportsbook Paddy Power, Trump has modestly improved his position as the favorite.

"In the past 24 hours, Trump's odds [improved] from -150 to -187, signaling renewed confidence among bettors. Harris' odds drifted slightly, from +120 to +150," a Paddy Power spokesperson said. "This suggests Trump's position is strengthening. Yet Harris remains a value bet for those who believe she could pull off a win."

That represents a majority of Paddy Power's customers.

"[Our] bettors have narrowly sided with Harris to win the U.S. presidential election. Since Friday, Harris has attracted more stakes than Trump," the spokesperson said.

At fellow UK bookmaker Ladbrokes Politics, the odds are closer, at Trump -162/Harris +138. And action on 2024 presidential election odds the past two U.S. elections.

"The final turnover figures will in all likelihood be skewed by the length of time last election's heat ran for," Ladbrokes head of political betting Kyle Ladbrokes said, alluding to the extra days needed to count votes. "At this point, though, betting is up vs. 2016/2020, with a around a 53-47% split in Harris' favor over the last 48 hours."

At BetMGM Canada, it's Trump -165/Harris +135, and at BetMGM UK, it's Trump -162/Harris +138. FanDuel Canada is a little further out, with Trump -180 and Harris +148.

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, NOV. 4: Kalshi is actually giving Americans the opportunity to engage on presidential election odds. A federal appeals court on Oct. 2 cleared the company to resume taking action on election betting/trading.

Since Kalshi is a prediction market, rather than a sportsbook, odds are expressed in percentages. And Kalshi isn't setting or changing those percentages. Rather, the money flowing into the market sets the price.

And those percentages have been quite volatile over the past week, just as they've been in betting markets. At the moment, Kalshi has Trump favored at 55% (-122), with Harris at 45% (+122).

"It's tough to pinpoint exact factors, but market volatility is expected in the run-up to an election," a Kalshi spokesperson said this afternoon. "Unlike polls, prediction markets can react instantly to a changing landscape.

"So it's entirely normal for the market to be volatile in the midst of last-minute campaigning, the release of early voting data, and all of the other factors that people attribute changes in election probabilities to."

The spokesperson then gave a snapshot of activity over the past few days.

"Over the past 24 hours, Trump is experiencing more trading volume in his favor. This is a shift from how traders were leaning in the previous week, which saw a massive Harris rally in a short time frame," the spokesperson said. "Trump peaked at 64% last week, but Harris rallied quickly to briefly retake the lead at 50.8% on Saturday.

"As of Monday afternoon, Trump holds a small lead at around 55%."

Sportsbooks often comment on what side they need or who the customers want to win, based on need/liability. As a prediction market, Kalshi steers clear of offering such commentary.

"We can't comment on what Kalshi users are desiring. Many traders use Kalshi as a hedge against their preferred candidate losing. So trading activity doesn't necessarily correlate with support," the spokesperson said.

Another component of Kalshi's presidential election offering: the company waived trading fees on election markets. So while any transaction is subject to gains or losses, there is no transaction fee.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, NOV. 4: In mid-September, shortly after the first and only debate between Trump and Harris, the VP was -120 and Trump even money in Ladbrokes' 2024 presidential election odds.

There's been a lot of jockeying since then. Trump got to as big as a -200 favorite to Harris' +175 price. But as we hit the home stretch, it's a tight race. On Sunday, it was Trump -125/Harris +110.

Today, there's a shift toward the former president.

"We're now -150 Trump vs. Harris +130, although weirdly, the popular vote markets seem unmoved," Ladbrokes head of political betting Kyle McGrath said. "Perhaps this is being driven by Republicans shortening for Pennsylvania, where we are now -120 from +100 on Republicans, vs. +100 from -120 on Democrats."

As McGrath noted over the weekend, there's been more Trump action over the last few weeks, but that's leveled off over the past few days.

"We're definitely still cheering Harris, but ideally a narrow Harris victory, with a couple of swing states going to Trump," McGrath said. "A blowout win for Trump would certainly be our worst result, as we've laid plenty on various battleground state specials, and on those states individually over the last six months."

Betting on 2024 presidential election odds is also available in Canada, in the Ontario province. BetMGM Canada has Trump -155/Harris +130, while FanDuel is at Trump -158/Harris +132.

At BetMGM UK, it's Trump -150/Harris +125.

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson