Copa America 2024 Predictions: Supercomputer Insights
The 2024 Copa America is approaching, and excitement is building! To give you an edge, we've activated Bettingexpert’s supercomputer, BETSiE, to predict the tournament's outcome.
And don’t forget to use our exclusive bet365 bonus code if you want to place a bet on any of the games in the upcoming Copa America.
Tournament winner
BETSiE has crunched the numbers, and according to the supercomputer, Argentina is the frontrunner to win, given a 35.63% probability of hoisting the trophy at the end, which is most of all, just ahead of Brazil with a 32% probability of winning. The distance between these two CONMEBOL titans to their closest adversaries is significant, with Uruguay coming in third place, with a 9.62% probability of winning.
Below is a breakdown of all participating teams’ probabilities of winning:
| Rank | Nation | Win Copa |
| 1 | Argentina | 35.63% |
| 2 | Brazil | 32.00% |
| 3 | Uruguay | 9.62% |
| 4 | Colombia | 6.30% |
| 5 | USA | 4.06% |
| 6 | Mexico | 3.68% |
| 7 | Ecuador | 3.49% |
| 8 | Chile | 2.06% |
| 9 | Canada | 1.49% |
| 10 | Peru | 0.97% |
| 11 | Costa Rica | 0.26% |
| 12 | Paraguay | 0.21% |
| 13 | Venezuela | 0.14% |
| 14 | Panama | 0.05% |
| 15 | Jamaica | 0.03% |
| 16 | Bolivia | 0.01% |
USMNT’s Chances
According to the supercomputer, the USMNT’s chances of progressing from the group stages are good.
Below you’ll find the simulated final standings of Group C:
| Nation | G | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Win Group | Qualify |
| Uruguay | 3 | 1.91 | 0.63 | 0.46 | 5.97 | 2.30 | 3.67 | 6.35 | 55.57% | 87.41% |
| USA | 3 | 1.62 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 5.14 | 2.78 | 2.36 | 5.56 | 35.79% | 78.22% |
| Panama | 3 | 0.73 | 0.65 | 1.62 | 3.31 | 5.31 | -2.00 | 2.84 | 5.84% | 22.33% |
| Bolivia | 3 | 0.50 | 0.51 | 1.99 | 3.15 | 7.19 | -4.04 | 2.01 | 2.80% | 12.05% |
The USMNT has a good chance of progressing from the initial stages of the tournament, with BETSiE assigning them a 78.22% probability of making it through, with an estimated 5.56 points.
Overall, the USMNT are predicted to finish 5th in the tournament with a 4.06% chance of winning it all.
Methodology
BETSiE predicts the entire Copa America 2024, considering tournament qualification results, previous international tournaments, and specific match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots, or shots on target are equal; each has an adjusted value.
Using this data, expected scores are calculated for each match. Each team receives an average expected goals for and against.
Once these expected goals are determined, BETSiE integrates them into the Copa America 2024 schedule, predicting scores for each game and the probability of each nation winning, drawing, or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team. BETSiE compiles these expected results with those of already played matches and simulates the remainder of the tournament 500,000 times to determine the probability of each team qualifying from their group, winning their group, reaching the final, and ultimately winning the tournament.
