USMNT Ready for Copa America: Historical Group Stage Matchups

As we await the first game of the 2024 edition of the Copa America, anticipation and excitement are building for the upcoming tournament. It will be the USMNT’s fifth appearance in the tournament, and this year’s group stages might prove to be a significant test for the team, as they face a challenging three games against Bolivia, Panama, and Uruguay. 

At VegasInsider we delved into the historical head-to-head records between the USMNT and their group-stage opponents. This analysis covers their encounters at home, away, and on neutral ground, providing insights into what fans might expect. 

Before we head into the findings of the research, check out our exclusive BetMGM bonus code, if you plan on placing a wager on any games in the upcoming tournament.

Bolivia: A Mixed Bag for the USMNT

Bolivia has proven to be a challenging opponent for the USMNT, especially away from home and on neutral grounds, where they haven’t picked up a win. However, playing on home soil gives the USMNT a slight edge, with a 33% win rate in the US. Despite the mixed results, the team has managed to keep most games competitive, conceding only 6 goals across all encounters.

Panama: A Dominant History

The USMNT has a strong track record against Panama, boasting a high win rate of 62% overall. Their dominance is particularly evident at home, where they have won 68% of their matches. The lone neutral ground encounter also ended in a resounding 6-2 victory for the USMNT, showcasing their superiority. This historical dominance will give the USMNT confidence as they face Panama in the Copa America.

Uruguay: An Evenly Matched Rivalry

The USMNT's encounters with Uruguay have been closely contested, with an overall win rate of 25%. Interestingly, all their wins have come while playing at home, where they remain unbeaten. However, the team has struggled on neutral ground, losing both matches without scoring a goal. This balanced rivalry suggests that the upcoming match will be tightly fought, with the USMNT aiming to leverage home advantage.

A Challenging Group Awaits

The USMNT's historical performance against their Copa America group stage opponents highlights a mix of dominance and resilience. With the tournament taking place on home soil, the team will look to build on their strong home records against Panama and Uruguay, while hoping to improve their mixed results against Bolivia. 

Picking a Winning Roster

Picking the right team to secure the USMNT smooth passage through the group stages can prove to be a challenging task for coach Gregg Berhalter. Using the most recent roster he picked, the one set to compete against Colombia and Brazil, as a benchmark, it doesn’t bode too well for the game against Uruguay at least. 

None of the players selected for the friendlies against Colombia and Brazil have ever won a game against Uruguay, but many of them have featured in a goalless draw between the two teams. Below is the list of current roster members, who have played against Uruguay: 

It’s different against Panama, where many of the players have played and experienced a lot of success, highlighted by four goals and two assists in four games by Christian Pulisic. Sean Johnson, despite only playing 196 minutes across four games, has a 100% win rate against Panama. 

Below you can find a list of how the players selected for the friendlies against Colombia and Panama have fared against Panama in the past. 

Despite the mixed results against Bolivia, some of the current players have enjoyed quite a lot of success playing against the Bolivians. Christian Pulisic once again springs to mind, with two appearances, resulting in a goal and two wins. Antonee Robinson, Josh Sargent, Weston McKennie, and Tim Weah have enjoyed playing against Bolivia, resulting in nothing but wins. Below you will find their history in this matchup: 

As the USMNT hopes to improve its record at the Copa America, where its best results are fourth-place finishes (in 2016 and 1995), it will be exciting to see how the team performs. The top two teams from each group will progress from the group stages, and it will be a significant setback if Gregg Berhalter and the team don’t make it past the initial rounds.

Previous Performances - Cities

Throughout the upcoming Copa America, the USMNT will play its three group-stage games at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington (against Bolivia), Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (against Panama), and Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City (versus Uruguay).

All three cities are filled with mostly good memories. Below is a breakdown of how the USMNT has performed in the same cities where they will play during the Copa America:

If the USMNT advance to the knockout stage, their quarterfinal venue will depend on their final position in Group C. Finishing first means they will play the Group D runner-up in Las Vegas. They will face the Group D winner in Glendale, AZ if they finish second.

In either case, a potential semifinal location would be in Charlotte. If they advance to the final, they will travel to Miami. If they play in the third-place match, they will stay in Charlotte.

Below is a breakdown of how the USMNT previously fared, when playing in these cities:

The USMNT has never played a game in Las Vegas, Nevada before, making a potential knockout game there unprecedented, with no historical performances to rely on. In two of the other cities, Charlotte and Glendale, the USMNT has good memories, with historical win rates of 100% and 50%, respectively. A potential final in Miami is more concerning; the team hasn’t historically performed well there, with a win rate of just 17% and a goal difference of -10. Only one Copa America host city has been worse for the USMNT: Houston, Texas, where they have a historical win rate of just 14%. Below is a breakdown of how the USMNT has performed in the remaining cities of this year’s Copa America:

Considering historical results, the USMNT has a good chance of advancing from the group stages without too many problems, having experienced success at home against all opponents in the past and with good memories playing in Arlington, Atlanta, and Kansas City. Despite having good chances of making it through, it certainly doesn’t look like a cakewalk, with tough matchups against especially Bolivia and Uruguay on the horizon. 

Christian Pulisic and his teammates have their work cut out for them, but given Pulisic's past success against the group-stage opponents, he will try to lead the team to even greater results in the 2024 edition of the Copa America.

Methodology

The data presented in this analysis on the historical performances of teams and players was gathered using OPTA, a leading sports data provider. OPTA's database includes detailed information on match results, goals scored, goals conceded, and player contributions across various competitions, including international tournaments like the Copa America.

For the historical performance of teams, we examined past encounters between the United States Men's National Team (USMNT), again using OPTA’s comprehensive database. This analysis covers matches played at home, away, and on neutral ground, providing insights into the overall performance and trends in these matchups.

To evaluate individual player performances, we relied on OPTA's data to compile statistics on goals, assists, minutes played, and match results. This information allowed us to assess the contributions of key players against specific opponents in past encounters. By analyzing player data, we gained insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the USMNT roster, particularly in relation to their upcoming opponents in the Copa America group stage.

Additionally, information on the venues for this year's Copa America matches was sourced from the official Copa America website. By incorporating venue data, we provided context for the historical performance of the USMNT in specific locations.

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