EPL Matchday 1 Picks, Predictions, Odds

Andrew Beasley Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

Andrew Beasley is back for best bets, predictions and picks for EPL Matchday 1 fixtures that begin on Friday, August 5th and conclude on Sunday, August 7th.

Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal

• Date: Friday, August 5th
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Selhurst Park
• Location: London, England

Best Bet: Crystal Palace ML (+270)

Selhurst Park has not been a happy hunting ground for Arsenal in recent years. They have won just one of their last four games at Crystal Palace and two of the last six. Their last visit was in April, and they were comprehensively beaten 3-0.

Mikel Arteta will hope for better this time. The Gunners have made some good signings (including Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko from Manchester City) and have compiled some decent results in pre-season.

However, the xG stats from last season have a Crystal Palace win as the best value pick of the week. The Eagles’ underlying data from last season implied they were a top six side. The end of Conor Gallagher’s loan is a loss, but the atmosphere will be electric and that can carry Palace to three points.

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Leeds United vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

• Date: Saturday, August 6th
• Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
• Venue: Elland Road
• Location: Leeds, England

Best Bet: Draw (+230)

On the face of it, Leeds United and Wolverhampton Wanderers had contrasting campaigns in 2021/22. The former narrowly avoided relegation while the latter finished in the top half and flirted with European qualification for much of the season.

The expected goal stats tell a different story though. They have the teams just one point apart, with Leeds matching the data in reality whereas Wolves massively overachieved.

Only four teams in the EPL drew more matches than the home side, and the visitors won none of their last seven. The xG from 2021/22 suggests this is the most likely draw this week, and this fixture ended 1-1 last October, so we’ll take that bet.

Everton vs. Chelsea

• Date: Saturday, August 6th
• Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Goodison Park
• Location: Liverpool, England

Best Bet: Chelsea Win to Nil (+175)

Chelsea’s record at Goodison Park is appalling. They have lost their last four visits, scoring just once while conceding seven goals across those matches. But Everton are in a mess, with their manager Frank Lampard already warning that they could be in for a second successive relegation battle.

While Chelsea has some concerns with their squad, they have added Raheem Sterling and Kalidou Koulibaly, both of whom should improve them. They have been unlucky at Everton in the past too: last season they outshot them 17-9 but missed two clear-cut chances and lost 1-0. With a similar performance this time around they look capable of winning to nil.

Leicester City vs. Brentford

• Date: Sunday, August 7th
• Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
• Venue: King Power Stadium
• Location: Leicester, England

Best Bet: BTS - Yes (-155)

This could prove to be a very difficult season for Leicester. At the time of writing they have yet to complete a transfer this summer, and last season their underlying performances were far worse than their results.

They didn’t experience too many issues with Brentford, though, winning 2-1 home and away. In both games, both teams hit double figures for shots and at least four for efforts on target.

With data like that, it’s little wonder this is the best pick of the week in the Both Teams To Score market. Leicester topped the Premier League for matches in which that occurred in 2021/22, while Brentford were joint-second in the away standings.

West Ham United vs. Manchester City

• Date: Sunday, August 7th
• Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
• Venue: London Stadium
• Location: London, England

Best Bet: Result After 30:00 Minutes - Manchester City (+135)

Manchester City begin their title defence at West Ham United, just as they did in 2019/20. Liverpool supporters will hope that this is an omen for the championship battle which lies ahead.

On that occasion back in 2019, City were ahead after 25 minutes. By their standards that was tardy, as they had taken the lead in their previous two visits to West Ham in the 11^th and 13^th minute respectively.

Pep Guardiola’s side scored first the joint-most times in the Premier League last season, breaking the deadlock on average in the 25^th minute. There isn’t much value to be had in this fixture, with City expected to win easily, but backing them to be winning at the 30-minute mark offers a sliver.

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Southampton

• Date: Saturday, August 6th
• Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
• Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
• Location: London, England

Best Bet: Tottenham Hotspur ML/BTS - Yes (+190)

This is a fixture which traditionally contains a lot of goals. The last six meetings of Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton in north London have featured 4.5 on average.

As much as Spurs were erratic last season, the Saints pulled off something of a shock with a 3-2 win in February. However, they were 2-1 down with 10 minutes to play and Antonio Conte has tightened up Tottenham since then.

Their five home games with Southampton prior to that saw them winning but failing to keep a clean sheet. This should be another instance of that outcome.

Andrew Beasley

Andrew Beasley is a freelance football writer who uses his statistical knowledge and insight of soccer to provide betting previews, strategy articles and podcasts for a variety of websites and bookmakers. Primarily focussed on the EPL, if the data is available for another league, he’ll manage to find an edge somewhere.Andrew was also part of the victorious team in season 15 of the BBC quiz show Only Connect. He’s good at spotting sequences and connections in soccer too. More from Andrew Beasley