EPL Matchday 4 Picks, Predictions, Odds

Andrew Beasley Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Andrew Beasley is back for best bets, predictions and picks for EPL Matchday 4 fixtures that begin on Saturday, August 27th and conclude on Sunday, August 28th.

Southampton vs. Manchester United

• Date: Saturday, August 27th
• Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
• Venue: St. Mary's Stadium
• Location: Southhampton, England

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals (-175)

It’s only 18 months since Manchester United beat Southampton 9-0 to move level on points at the top of the Premier League table. Granted, they had played two games more than their cousins from across the city, but they were in decent shape.

It has been largely downhill for them ever since, and though they are understandably favourites for this match, it would take a brave man or a fool to stake much on United.

Instead, let’s look for goals. Over 2.5 goals has paid out in all three Southampton matches so far this season and with both teams defensively slack it should do again here.

Brentford vs. Everton

• Date: Saturday, August 27th
• Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
• Venue: Gtech Community Stadium
• Location: Brentford, England

Best Bet: Brentford ML (+100)

Brentford beat Everton home and away last season, though the Blues receiving two red cards at Goodison Park no doubt helped in the Bees’ 3-2 win there in May.

Thomas Frank’s side have already scored eight league goals this season when Everton only have that many from their last seven in the Premier League. The home side are deservedly favourites to win this match.

But the underlying data still suggests this is the value bet of the week, as their price should be a lot shorter. Brentford have looked defensively vulnerable at times this season but they should keep a toothless Everton at bay and claim the three points.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Leeds United

• Date: Saturday, August 27th
• Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
• Venue: Amex Stadium
• Location: Falmer, England

Best Bet: Leeds ML (+260)

Having both won to nil somewhat surprisingly last weekend, Brighton and Leeds will be feeling good heading into their clash on Saturday. These teams drew twice last season, and it should be a close game once again.

The bookies favour Brighton, as does the data from last season. But even though Leeds shipped goals at times, they won as many matches on the road as the Seagulls did at the Amex Stadium in 2021/22.

With Brighton’s struggles to score at home becoming the stuff of legend, Leeds’ price to win is too tempting to ignore.

Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace

• Date: Saturday, August 27th
• Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
• Venue: Etihad Stadium
• Location: Manchester, England

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score (+105)

While no club can truly claim to be Manchester City’s bogey team, so good is their record, Crystal Palace could make a realistic shout that they deserve the title.

The Eagles took four points from the eventual champions last season and have only lost one of their last four visits to the Etihad Stadium. Palace will be full of confidence after taking a point home from Anfield in their previous away match too.

With the odds confirming City are expected to win easily – and they will want to react following their Newcastle draw – a wager on both teams to score looks the best choice.

Aston Villa vs. West Ham United

• Date: Sunday, August 28th
• Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
• Venue: Villa Park
• Location: Birmingham, England

Best Bet: West Ham United ML (+230)

With both sides having endured disappointing starts to the season, it’s little surprise the prices for all three match outcomes are so close. It’s a tough one to call.

West Ham are in Denmark on Thursday for a Europa Conference League play-off, which helps explain why Aston Villa are favourites. However, the Hammers won the first leg against Viborg 3-1 so the return match shouldn’t be too strenuous for them.

They have also won the last four meetings of these teams, and though they lost their previous away match, they had more than enough chances to have got something from Nottingham Forest. West Ham can win this one to defeat the odds and increase the pressure on Steven Gerrard.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Newcastle United

• Date: Sunday, August 28th
• Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
• Venue: Molineux Stadium
• Location: Wolverhampton, England

Best Bet: Draw (+220)

Wolves haven’t had a great start to the season. Neither have they been outclassed though, with their two defeats being by a single goal.

Their two matches with Newcastle in 2021/22 were settled by the same margin, with each side winning their home fixture. The four clashes prior to that all ended 1-1, there is usually little between these teams.

The Magpies only got a point in their previous away match, at Brighton, and Eddie Howe will probably have to settle for the same here.

Andrew Beasley

Andrew Beasley is a freelance football writer who uses his statistical knowledge and insight of soccer to provide betting previews, strategy articles and podcasts for a variety of websites and bookmakers. Primarily focussed on the EPL, if the data is available for another league, he’ll manage to find an edge somewhere.Andrew was also part of the victorious team in season 15 of the BBC quiz show Only Connect. He’s good at spotting sequences and connections in soccer too. More from Andrew Beasley