Iran vs. USA Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Jenkins Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

We've seen four games played in Group B and none of the four teams have advanced to the knockout stage and nobody has eliminated. All that will change on Tuesday afternoon when Iran and USA square off in their final group stage match of the 2022 World Cup.

Iran vs. USA Picks & Score Predictions

It’s a one-game shootout in Group B with group qualification on the table. All four teams can still qualify from this group but the tightest battle is between the two sides involved here. Whichever side wins Iran vs USA will be in the knockouts but anything other than a win will see the US head home.

That will affect the match. Iran only need a draw so why should they open up and try to attack? They’re certainly capable of sitting back and defending. This is an Iran side that has kept clean sheets in 15 of its 22 matches (68%) in the last year. 

Can the US get past that? After all, this is a US side that has only scored once in the tournament so far. They’ve failed to score in three of their last four fixtures. 

It’s doubtful. Under 2.5 goals is low at -160. That looks likely considering it would have paid in each of the USA’s last five matches. Still, it but provides little value. Under 1.5 goals is at +185 for those feeling a little braver. A 1-0 either way looks likely.

Score Predictions:
United States 1 Iran 0 (+600)
Iran 1 United States 0 (+1000)

Iran vs. USA Best Bets

So many prop bets are a knock-on of the way the game goes. We’re expecting a low-scoring match here so the consequence of that will usually mean fewer shots and goal kicks. The shot line is at around 22.5 and under that is the value play. Iran allowed 10 shots against Wales and the US allowed eight to England.

Best Bet:
Under 1.5 Goals at +185
Under 22.5 Match Shots -120

Updated on 11/24/2024

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Iran vs. USA Odds

Iran +300
United States +100
Draw +240
Over 2.5 (+130)
Under 2.5 (-163)

Corners: Over 9 (+110) Under 9 (+120)
Total Cards: Over 4.5 (-138) Under 4.5 (+100)

Gregg Berhalter’s side is the slight favorite for the match so it’s a coin-toss in terms of qualification. Look around different sites and both Iran and the US are on the Moneyline for qualification to the knockout stages. 

The Asian handicap line is set at USA -0.5 so the bookies have given them the edge. Still, they’re above the Moneyline so there’s little confidence. Odds of +300 for an Iran win looks great value after their result with Wales.

Iran Betting Outlook & Players to Watch

There is something going on with this Iran team. It’s strong at both ends of the pitch with a solid defense and enough attacking quality to worry any team. Mehdi Taremi is the standout name considering he has scored seven in his last 10 for Iran.

Odds listed at +450 for him to score any time looks great value, plus a number at +850 for him to score last looks even better in a game that shouldn’t have too many goals. Especially considering that Iran will be without the suspended forward Alireza Jahanbakhsh.

Bookings are an expectation here. It could be a fiery match with both sets of players knowing that a defeat will send them home. Some of these Iran players appear in the referee’s notebook. They’ve had two bookings in both matches so far.

Over 1.5 cards for Iran here is unsurprisingly low at -400.

USA Betting Outlook & Players to Watch

The US will be hoping for a very different match here to the one they played out with England last Friday. Their star players that day were all in defensive positions. Goalkeeper Matt Turner and defenders Antonee Robinson and Tim Ream all impressed. This is going to be a very different match. Expect Iran to sit back and deep, aiming to counter and catch the US high up the pitch. 

Christian Pulisic will be the key. Five of the six goals Iran conceded against England in the opener came as a result of wide player breaking through and creating an opening. Pulisic has the ability to make that happen and this is the ideal opportunity for him to end his goal drought for the USMNT.

Odds of +700 looks good value for him to score first in what should be a low-scoring fixture.

Iran vs. USA Betting Resources

• Date: Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2022
• Matchup: Group B
• Stadium: Al Thumama Stadium
• Location: Doha, Qatar
• TV-Time: FOX, 2:00 p.m. ET

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