Borussia Dortmund vs Chelsea Champions League Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Jenkins Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

2022-23 UEFA Champions League
Futures Odds
Matchups & Odds
Knockout: Round of 16 | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Final

It’s the first-ever meeting between these two clubs as Borussia Dortmund host Chelsea.

The Blues will be hoping that the old adage of the form book going out the window in cup competitions rings true here. They’re up against it in England and face a Dortmund side that has found its groove since the turn of the year.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Chelsea Picks & Score Predictions

Dortmund looks like great value to get a result here. They’ll be confident of getting a result at home considering they’ve not lost any of their last 10 at the "Westfalenstadion" in all competitions. That includes matches against Bayern Munich and Manchester City.

The Blues are struggling for goals right now with just three in their last seven in all competitions. A 1-0 or 2-0 win for the hosts looks good value given Dortmund have notched up a six-match winning streak in the Bundesliga.

Score Predictions:
Borussia Dortmund 1 Chelsea 0 (+800)
Borussia Dortmund 2 Chelsea 0 (+1100)

Borussia Dortmund vs. Chelsea Best Bets

But we can push those odds a little further and combine the two. Chelsea’s inability to score looks translates to both home and away fixtures. Joao Felix’s opener on the weekend was Chelsea’s third in seven on the road. Combine the two lines of thinking together and you’ll get Dortmund to win to nil at odds of +333. That’s the play here. 

Game Best Bets:
Borussia Dortmund to Win to Nil (+333)
Both Teams to Score - No (+105)

Borussia Dortmund vs. Chelsea Odds

The German side comes into this one as the slight favourite. Few would have suspected that would be the case when this draw was made a few months back - such is the turnaround in fortunes for both sides. It’s +145 for Dortmund to win this one and +190 for Chelsea to snatch the win. +230 for the draw wouldn’t be a huge shock. 

Three-Way Match Odds
Borussia Dortmund +145
Chelsea +190
Draw +230
Over 2.5 (-110)
Under 2.5 (-110)

Odds to win Champions League
Chelsea +1600
Borussia Dortmund +5000

Odds to Advance to Quarterfinals
Borussia Dortmund +110
Chelsea -150

Odds Subject to Change - per bet365

Updated on 11/24/2024

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Borussia Dortmund vs. Chelsea Betting Stats

Borussia Dortmund (Germany)
Group Results: 2-3-1, GF 10 GA 5

After starting group play with a 2-1 record, Dortmund closed with three consecutive draws and it only managed to score two goals in those games. The one highlight of the three was a scoreless result against competition favorite Manchester City. 

Chelsea (England)
Group Results: 4-1-1, GF 10 GA 4

Just one game into the Champions League group stage, the club fired coach Thomas Tuchel after Chelsea dropped a 1-0 decision to Dinamo Zagreb.  Graham Potter took over the managing duties and the Blues started with a draw before four straight wins. The defense only allowed four goals in the six games, tied for the third-best effort among the 32 group clubs.

Borussia Dortmund Betting Outlook & Players to Watch

It’s hard to pin down a single reason behind Dortmund’s recent upturn in form but three players have stood out above the rest. Jude Bellingham is the first on that list and with four goals in six Champions League appearances already this season, he looks like great value to add to that here. The England international is way out at +450 to score any time. He’s not shy of taking a shot and should be able to burst through a new-look Blues midfield.

Julian Brandt and Nico Schlotterbeck are the other two players who have impressed most for Dortmund since the turn of the year. The defender is the standout name here. He’s good value to get a goal at any time with odds of +1100. Especially considering 27% of the goals Chelsea has conceded this season came from set pieces. 

Elsewhere, expect midfield Salih Ozcan to walk a fine line with the referee. He’s been booked in three of his five Champions League appearances this season and is out at +275 to add to that here. Just don’t forget to void the bet if he doesn’t start.

Player Prop Best Bets:
Jude Bellingham - Anytime Goal Scorer (+450)
Nico Schlotterbeck - Anytime Goal Scorer (+1100)
Salih Ozcan - To Receive a Card (+275)  

Chelsea Betting Outlook & Players to Watch

This new-look Chelsea side needs that first big win. The Blues are utterly devoid of confidence right now and - perhaps unsurprisingly - are playing like a side of strangers. The goals have been lacking but Joao Felix managed to grab one on his return from suspension at the weekend. He looks good value out at +300.

It’s a familiar opponent for some of this Chelsea side. None more than Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who returns to the Westfalenstadion for the first time since departing the club in 2018. Despite his status as Chelsea’s joint-top scorer in Europe this season, I’d stay well clear of the +250 for him to get one at any time here.

Player Prop Best Bets:
Joao Felix - Anytime Goal Scorer (+300)

Borussia Dortmund vs. Chelsea Betting Resources

Date: Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2023
Matchup: Round of 16 - 1st Leg
Stadium: Signal Iduna Park
Location: Dortmund, Germany
TV-Time: Paramount +, 3:00 p.m. ET

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