Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Champions League Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Jenkins Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

2022-23 UEFA Champions League
Futures Odds
Matchups & Odds
Knockout: Round of 16 | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Final

It’s a seemingly impossible task for Liverpool as they aim to overcome that 5-2 defeat to Real Madrid in the second leg of this eye-catching Champions League tie.

Real Madrid has previously won away in the first leg of 27 Champions League or European Cup ties. They progressed in 26 of those ties. The sole collapse at home came after a 2-1 win away at Ajax in 2018-19. That is the scale of the task facing Liverpool.

They’ve done it before. Liverpool is one of only three sides to have progressed from a Champions League knockout tie after losing the first leg by three or more goals. They did back in 2018-19 with the famous comeback against Madrid’s La Liga rivals, FC Barcelona.

Will bettors see déjà vu again this March? Let's break down the second-leg!

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Picks & Score Predictions

Liverpool would feel more confident about their mission if their away form was a little different. The Reds are not travelling well right now. The 1-0 defeat to Bournemouth on Saturday in Premier League action means Liverpool has lost four of their last six away games in league play.

They did win twice on the road in the group stages - a 7-0 demolition of Rangers and a comfortable 3-0 at Ajax. But the heavy 4-1 loss at Napoli is a little more indicative of where manager Jurgen Klopp’s side is right now.

A comfortable 2-0 Madrid win wouldn’t surprise me here.

Score Predictions:
Real Madrid 2 Liverpool 0 (+1200)
Real Madrid 2 Liverpool 1 (+850)

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Best Bets

Madrid is as short as -4000 to progress to the quarterfinals. There’s little use backing that so I’m looking elsewhere for value. Liverpool’s away record cannot be ignored so it’s rather surprising to see how short the hosts are to get the win. 

This tie is all but concluded but an early goal for Madrid will kill the match on Wednesday. With little for either side to play for, I’m going for a slim home win. Madrid to win and under four goals in the match is my top pick at +260.

Game Best Bets:
Real Madrid to Win and Under 4 (+260)

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Odds

Madrid are the favorites to win this match in 90 minutes. Los Blancos are at +125 to win the match with the Reds out at +175. It’s +300 for a draw in 90 minutes. The bookies are expecting a fair few goals with the Asian goal line set at 3.0. Only one of the second-leg matches in the Champions League last week finished with over 2.5 goals and the Under has gone 10-2 in the first 12 Round of 16 matches.

Three-Way Match Odds
Real Madrid +125
Liverpool +175
Draw +300
Over 2.5 (-188)
Under 2.5 (+150)

Odds to win Champions League
Real Madrid +600
Liverpool +8000

Odds to Advance to Quarterfinals
Real Madrid -4000
Liverpool +1600

Odds Subject to Change - per bet365

Updated on 12/27/2024

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Real Madrid Betting Outlook & Players to Watch

It’s a massive week for Real Madrid.

They host FC Barcelona on the weekend but even a win against their bitter rivals would reduce the La Liga gap at the top to six points. They’ll also face Barca in the second leg of their Copa del Rey semifinal next month and have to overcome the 1-0 aggregate score-line at Camp Nou. The Champions League appears to be Madrid’s best chance of winning silverware this year and after what happened last season, it’s foolish to underestimate them.

It was two of Madrid’s front three who stole the headlines at Anfield.

Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior grabbed a brace each in the 5-2 victory. The Frenchman has scored nine goals in his last six Champions League appearances against English opponents. The anytime goal here is +125 which is too low to get behind.

Vinicius Junior is the one to watch down Madrid’s left side. He just loves playing against the Reds. Expect Vini to exploit the space left by the attacking Trent Alexander-Arnold as he has done so often for Madrid.

Vinicius Junior has scored five times in his last Champions League appearances against Liverpool. Odds of +1800 for Vini to score two or more goals in this game has serious legs at that price. A positive return of +150 odds for Over 2.5 shots is also good value for those seeking something a little more conservative.

Player Prop Bet:
Anytime Goal Scorer - Karim Benzema +125
Two Goals or More - Vinicius Junior +1800
Over 2.5 Shots - Vinicius Junior +150

Liverpool Betting Outlook & Players to Watch

Despite their difficulties in the Premier League, Liverpool’s away form in the Champions League has seldom been better. Eight wins from nine is a fine return - although the Reds have lost three of their last five away games in Spain in this competition.

The bulk of their goal scoring burden falls on Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian forward is the top scorer in the Champions League this season with eight goals. He’s one ahead of Kylian Mbappe despite playing one fewer match. He bagged Liverpool’s second at Anfield last month for what was only his second goal against Madrid. Salah has lost six of the seven matches he has played against them, the worst record of his career. Under 2.5 shots for Salah in the game looks good at -139.

Player Prop Best Bet:
Under 2.5 Shots - Mohamed Salah -139

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Betting Resources

Date: Wednesday, Mar. 15, 2023
Matchup: Round of 16
Stadium: Santiago Bernabeu
Location: Madrid, Spain
TV-Time: Paramount +, 4:00 p.m. ET

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