Patriots-Packers (NFL) 12:00 PM ET + Caesars

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

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The Patriots travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers in a cross-conference clash on Oct. 2 at 4:25 p.m. EST.

New England is off to a 1-2 start and will be without starting quarterback Mac Jones, who suffered a high ankle sprain in a 37-26 home loss to the Ravens in week three. 

Jones had struggled prior to the injury with just two touchdown passes to five interceptions through two-plus games, but the oddsmakers still downgraded significantly in wake of the news that veteran backup Brian Hoyer would be behind center in week four.

The lookahead line favored the Packers by less than a touchdown at 6.5 points, but the line reopened at 8.5 on Sunday evening. The line ballooned as high as Packers -11 before money came in on New England and pushed the spread back down to 9.5 points.

The total has also cratered from the mid 40s down to 40.5, influenced by both Jones’ injury and three unders consecutive to begin the season for Green Bay.

New England’s struggles in the passing game haven’t impacted its ground attack in recent weeks, as the Patriots have amassed 124 and 145 rushing yards, respectively, the last two weeks. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson have split carries in the backfield, and both are averaging at least 4.6 yards per carry. 

Green Bay’s defense has stood out in pass coverage, but its rush defense has left something to be desired, ranking 24th in yards per carry allowed at 4.9 yards per tote. 

The Patriots will likely turn heavily to its backfield duo, as Hoyer – a 14-year veteran – last started in a win on Oct. 2, 2016, against the Detroit Lions as a member of the Chicago Bears. His most recent extended game action came with the Patriots on Oct. 15, 2020, in a 26-10 loss to Kansas City.

The Packers have shifted to a run-centric approach following wide receiver Davante Adams’ departure this past offseason. 

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have been heavily involved both on the ground and through the air, as both have recorded 40-plus touches through three weeks. 

Aaron Rodgers has remained efficient despite the decreased workload. The two-time reigning MVP has completed a career-high 72.3% of his passes to go along with 7.3 yards per attempt. 

The Packers’ target share has been in limbo in the early going, but rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs put together the best performance of his young career last week in a 14-12 win over Tampa Bay, catching all eight of his targets for 73 yards and a touchdown.

New England’s defense ranks just outside the top 10 with 6.3 yards per pass attempt allowed, but is 21st with 4.8 yards per attempt allowed.

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo and Tracy Wolfson will be on the call for CBS. The game is set to kickoff at 4:25 p.m. EST.

Written by Joey Koenig, our US sports betting industry expert.

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