Supercomputer Predicts March Madness Results
March Madness is upon us once again! Ahead of tonight’s first First Four game between Wagner and Howard, we at VegasInsider put Bettingexpert’s supercomputer, BETSiE, to work to predict how the entire first round will play out and how far each team can expect to advance in the tournament. You can find the full results below as well as a graphic of BETSiE’s Final Four predictions and some interesting highlights from the data. Keep this information in mind when placing bets on the NCAA Tournament, and make sure to use our BetMGM bonus code to get the best offers.
First Four Games
| TEAMS | Win % | |
| South 10 | Boise St | 43.70% |
| South 10 | Colorado | 56.30% |
| Midwest 16 | Montana St | 64.30% |
| Midwest 16 | Grambling | 35.70% |
| Midwest 10 | Virginia | 37.80% |
| Midwest 10 | Colorado St | 62.20% |
| West 16 | Howard | 59.40% |
| West 16 | Wagner | 40.60% |
Full First Round
| TEAMS | Win % | |
| East 1 | Connecticut | 99.6% |
| East 16 | Stetson | 0.4% |
| East 8 | Florida Atlantic | 50.3% |
| East 9 | Northwestern | 49.7% |
| East 5 | San Diego St | 88.7% |
| East 12 | UAB | 11.3% |
| East 4 | Auburn | 94.3% |
| East 13 | Yale | 5.7% |
| East 6 | BYU | 81.9% |
| East 11 | Duquesne | 18.1% |
| East 3 | Illinois | 93.1% |
| East 14 | Morehead St | 6.9% |
| East 7 | Washington St | 56.9% |
| East 10 | Drake | 43.1% |
| East 2 | Iowa St | 97.0% |
| East 15 | South Dakota St | 3.0% |
| South 1 | Houston | 98.8% |
| South 16 | Longwood | 1.2% |
| South 8 | Nebraska | 58.2% |
| South 9 | Texas A&M | 41.8% |
| South 5 | Wisconsin | 74.6% |
| South 12 | James Madison | 25.4% |
| South 4 | Duke | 92.0% |
| South 13 | Vermont | 8.0% |
| South 6 | Texas Tech | 68.5% |
| South 11 | North Carolina St | 31.5% |
| South 3 | Kentucky | 92.2% |
| South 14 | Oakland | 7.8% |
| South 7 | Florida | 50.5% |
| South 10 | South 10 Seed | 49.5% |
| South 2 | Marquette | 94.0% |
| South 15 | Western Kentucky | 6.0% |
| Midwest 1 | Purdue | 99.3% |
| Midwest 16 | Midwest 16 Seed | 0.7% |
| Midwest 8 | Utah St | 41.2% |
| Midwest 9 | TCU | 58.8% |
| Midwest 5 | Gonzaga | 77.5% |
| Midwest 12 | McNeese St | 22.5% |
| Midwest 4 | Kansas | 80.8% |
| Midwest 13 | Samford | 19.2% |
| Midwest 6 | South Carolina | 55.8% |
| Midwest 11 | Oregon | 44.2% |
| Midwest 3 | Creighton | 93.0% |
| Midwest 14 | Akron | 7.0% |
| Midwest 7 | Texas | 59.6% |
| Midwest 10 | Midwest 10 Seed | 40.4% |
| Midwest 2 | Tennessee | 97.9% |
| Midwest 15 | Saint Peters | 2.1% |
| West 1 | North Carolina | 99.2% |
| West 16 | West 16 Seed | 0.8% |
| West 8 | Mississippi State | 42.0% |
| West 9 | Michigan St | 58.0% |
| West 5 | Saint Marys | 71.0% |
| West 12 | Grand Canyon | 29.0% |
| West 4 | Alabama | 89.8% |
| West 13 | Charleston | 10.2% |
| West 6 | Clemson | 41.0% |
| West 11 | New Mexico | 59.0% |
| West 3 | Baylor | 94.3% |
| West 14 | Colgate | 5.7% |
| West 7 | Dayton | 50.2% |
| West 10 | Nevada | 49.8% |
| West 2 | Arizona | 98.0% |
| West 15 | Long Beach St | 2.0% |
Full Tournament Predictions
| Rank | TEAM | WIN | REACH FINAL | REACH FINAL 4 | REACH ELITE 8 | REACH SWEET 16 | REACH 2ND ROUND |
| 1 | Houston | 31.7% | 47.5% | 65.0% | 75.0% | 88.9% | 98.8% |
| 2 | Connecticut | 19.4% | 33.9% | 45.3% | 61.2% | 91.2% | 99.6% |
| 3 | Purdue | 11.0% | 21.4% | 45.1% | 67.5% | 84.7% | 99.3% |
| 4 | Auburn | 7.4% | 14.8% | 21.6% | 31.8% | 68.5% | 88.8% |
| 5 | Arizona | 6.3% | 15.1% | 36.4% | 56.6% | 79.0% | 98.0% |
| 6 | Iowa St | 6.0% | 12.4% | 18.9% | 41.3% | 58.5% | 97.1% |
| 7 | Tennessee | 5.1% | 11.0% | 25.1% | 46.3% | 73.0% | 97.9% |
| 8 | North Carolina | 3.6% | 9.6% | 26.0% | 47.4% | 66.8% | 99.2% |
| 9 | Duke | 1.6% | 4.1% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 48.7% | 74.6% |
| 10 | Creighton | 1.3% | 3.9% | 11.9% | 28.2% | 73.1% | 93.0% |
| 11 | Marquette | 1.3% | 3.8% | 9.4% | 33.4% | 51.9% | 94.0% |
| 12 | Baylor | 0.7% | 2.8% | 10.9% | 23.1% | 58.9% | 94.3% |
| 13 | Illinois | 0.7% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 18.8% | 59.3% | 93.1% |
| 14 | BYU | 0.5% | 2.0% | 5.1% | 24.6% | 36.7% | 81.9% |
| 15 | Gonzaga | 0.4% | 1.5% | 5.7% | 13.1% | 42.0% | 77.5% |
| 16 | Alabama | 0.4% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 15.6% | 37.5% | 71.0% |
| 17 | Michigan St | 0.3% | 1.3% | 5.0% | 12.1% | 21.0% | 58.0% |
| 18 | Saint Marys | 0.3% | 1.3% | 5.3% | 13.4% | 33.5% | 71.0% |
| 19 | Kansas | 0.3% | 1.0% | 4.0% | 10.2% | 35.5% | 77.5% |
| 20 | Kentucky | 0.3% | 1.1% | 4.0% | 21.4% | 54.2% | 92.2% |
| 21 | Wisconsin | 0.2% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 26.0% | 74.6% |
| 22 | Texas Tech | 0.2% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 18.0% | 34.5% | 68.5% |
| 23 | San Diego St | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 20.3% | 88.8% |
| 24 | New Mexico | 0.2% | 0.7% | 3.4% | 8.5% | 26.0% | 59.0% |
| 25 | Texas | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 9.7% | 15.2% | 59.7% |
| 26 | South 10 Seed | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 11.5% | 22.2% | 49.4% |
| 27 | Florida | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 11.8% | 22.6% | 50.6% |
| 28 | Nebraska | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 7.2% | 58.4% |
| 29 | Mississippi State | 0.1% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 6.1% | 12.2% | 42.0% |
| 30 | TCU | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 4.6% | 10.1% | 58.7% |
| 31 | Washington St | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 8.7% | 22.7% | 57.0% |
| 32 | Nevada | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 10.5% | 49.7% |
| 33 | Dayton | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 10.4% | 50.3% |
| 34 | South Carolina | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 6.5% | 15.2% | 55.9% |
| 35 | Clemson | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 14.5% | 41.0% |
| 36 | Midwest 10 Seed | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 5.5% | 10.2% | 40.3% |
| 37 | Texas A&M | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 41.6% |
| 38 | Drake | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 5.5% | 17.1% | 43.0% |
| 39 | Grand Canyon | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 4.6% | 21.1% | 29.0% |
| 40 | Utah St | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 41.3% |
| 41 | Northwestern | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 4.5% | 49.6% |
| 42 | Oregon | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 10.2% | 44.1% |
| 43 | Florida Atlantic | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 4.4% | 50.4% |
| 44 | James Madison | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 17.5% | 25.4% |
| 45 | North Carolina St | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 10.3% | 31.5% |
| 46 | McNeese St | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 13.7% | 22.5% |
| 47 | Samford | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 8.8% | 22.5% |
| 48 | Duquesne | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 18.1% |
| 49 | Yale | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 7.0% | 11.2% |
| 50 | Charleston | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 7.9% | 29.0% |
| 51 | Vermont | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 7.9% | 25.4% |
| 52 | Colgate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 5.7% |
| 53 | Western Kentucky | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 6.0% |
| 54 | Akron | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 7.0% |
| 55 | UAB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.2% | 11.2% |
| 56 | Morehead St | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 6.9% |
| 57 | Oakland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 7.8% |
| 58 | South Dakota St | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% |
| 59 | Saint Peters | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% |
| 60 | Longwood | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 61 | Long Beach St | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.0% |
| 62 | Midwest 16 Seed | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 63 | West 16 Seed | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 64 | Stetson | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
BETSiE’s Final Four
Highlights
Houston is BETSiE’s favorite to win it all this year with a 31.7% chance of cutting down the nets. If they get bounced though, it might come early. While they have better odds than any team of advancing to the Elite Eight and beyond, some teams have higher odds of reaching the round of 32 and Sweet 16 than the Cougars do. UConn is the only team with higher odds for both. The Huskies have the second best chance to win the National Championship at 19.4%.
BETSiE is also high on Purdue making a deep run despite their struggles in the tourney the last few years. The Boilermakers have the second best chance of making the Elite Eight at 67.5%. This would be their first Elite Eight appearance since 2019.
4 seed Auburn has the fourth best odds of winning the championship according to our supercomputer. At 7.4%, their chances are higher than any of the 2 seeds in the tournament, and even better odds than North Carolina, who are the 1 seed in the West. Unfortunately for Tigers fans, this year’s bracket shakes out so that Auburn would likely have to face UConn to reach the Elite Eight, a matchup BETSiE favors the reigning national champions in. Auburn has a 68.5% chance to reach the Sweet 16 but their chances of advancing beyond that fall to just 31.8%.
Now we take a look at some potential upsets. The history of the 12-5 and 11-6 upsets are well known, and BETSiE sees a few happening again. 11 seed New Mexico has a 59% chance of taking down 6 seed Clemson this Friday, making that matchup the most likely to produce an upset. Other close matchups to watch out for are 7 seed Florida (50.5% chance of winning) against Boise State or Colorado (49.5%) and 7 seed Dayton (50.2%) versus 10 seed Nevada (49.8%).
Finally, here are some less likely upset options that are worth keeping an eye on. Will Wade is in his first season back as a NCAA head coach following his dramatic departure from LSU in 2022, now leading McNeese State in their first tournament appearance since 2002. With a 22.5% chance of upsetting 5 seed Gonzaga, could Wade claim redemption by leading the Cowboys out of the first round for the first time ever? In the East region, legendary coach Keith Dambrot (who coached LeBron James at St. Vincent–St. Mary) announced the day after securing Duquesne’s first tournament bid since 1977 that this was his last year coaching. With the Duke’s having an 18.1% chance of toppling 6 seed BYU, can Dambrot take the team on a run before sailing off into the sunset?
Keep an eye out as we update our supercomputer predictions each week throughout the tournament and use this information to help inform wagers on the Big Dance. Before placing any bets, make sure to check out our sportsbook bonus codes to get the best offers.
Methodology
BETSiE predictions are based on 1 million simulations of the entire NCAA tournament. These simulations take into account factors such as team rankings, matchup odds, level of competition, average scoring by both teams, and win-loss probabilities.
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