2024 Draft: Comparing Top 10 Teams’ Draft Track Records

One of the most anticipated events of the NFL calendar is upon us as the NFL Draft kicks off this Thursday. Over the course of three days 257 young football players will live what for many of them has been a lifelong dream when their name gets called and their NFL careers begin. While fulfilling these dreams, each of the league's 32 teams will be looking to find players who can help their squad and potentially develop into stars. 

Teams picking at the top of the draft are most eager to find a star to help turn around their franchise’s fortunes. With that in mind, we at VegasInsider took a look at the team’s that hold the top 10 picks to see how their selections have worked out historically. We combed through each draft pick the teams at the top of the draft have made in the common draft era to determine who has done it the best. As a quick reminder, the team’s drafting in the top 10 are as follows (the numbers in parentheses represent the picks each team holds).

Chicago Bears (#1 and #9)

Washington Commanders (#2)

New England Patriots (#3)

Arizona Cardinals (#4)

Los Angeles Chargers (#5)

New York Giants (#6)

Tennessee Titans (#7)

Atlanta Falcons (#8)

New York Jets (#10)

Below you will find breakdowns showing which teams have the best and worst luck at the Annual Player Selection Meeting based on all draft picks, first rounders specifically, and number of award winners drafted. While our findings are based on past draft results, fans have the opportunity to bet on how the 2024 Draft will play out. Before placing any wagers, make sure to check out our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to get the best offer! Fans can also compare offers by going to our best sportsbook bonus page.

Methodology

All stats are courtesy of Pro Football Reference (PFR). The value of each draftee was measured using PFR’s Weighted Career Approximate Value (wAV) which quantifies the value a player had across their entire career. A breakdown of how wAV is calculated can be found on PFR’s website. We also use total games played and their Starting Seasons (St) data, which counts the number of seasons a player spent as the primary starter at their position on their team. Another table below shows each team’s history of drafting award winners, specifically first team All-Pro selections (AP1), Pro Bowls (PB), and Hall of Fame inductions (HOF).

You can see our full data, including breakdowns of all stats by draft pick, first round pick, and draft class here.

Average Draftee

When looking at the wAV and career longevity for each team’s average draftee, it is the Tennessee Titans who stand out. Ranking #1 in each category, their front office seems to know how to find the best athletes and keep their guys on the field. They are the only team whose draftees average over 50 games played and a wAV of 14+. The New England Patriots numbers are also notable, ranking second in each category. The Commanders, on the other hand, have struggled across the board, ranking last in each category.

Average 1st Rounder

Despite a narrative over the last few years that former head coach and de facto general manager Bill Bellichick couldn’t hit on a first round pick, it is the New England Patriots whose first round picks excel. While the Titans top picks average the highest wAV but over a full point, the Pats come in second on that list and the first rounders that head to Foxborough play the most games on average. The Pats are also the only team whose top picks typically hold a starting spot for over 6 seasons.

The New York Giants, on the other hand, have struggled with their top picks. Their #1 picks average wAV ranks dead last out of the group we examined, nearly 3 points below the next closest (the Arizona Cardinals, whose top picks also average nearly a full extra season as a starter over the Giants). 

Award Winners

Unsurprisingly, the Patriots and Titans racked up the most awards from their draftees as well. Tennessee leads the pack with 8 Hall of Famers drafted in the common draft era, followed by the Pats and Bears with 7 each. New England ranks #1 in first team All-Pro selections and Pro Bowl appearances by their draftees.

The Giants again struggle by these metrics though. Their 3 Hall of Fame draft picks since 1967 tie for last on our list, and their draftees have been selected for the least amount of Pro Bowls. The Falcons also struggled on this list as one of the teams tied with New York for fewest Canton enshrinees and the second fewest All-Pros. The Commanders have nabbed one more Hall of Famer than New York and Atlanta, but they have the fewest All Pro selections with just 17 in the common draft era.

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