UFC Fight Night Strickland vs Imavov Picks, Predictions, Odds
UFC Fight Night Strickland vs Imavov Picks, Predictions, Odds
Happy Friday folks! After almost a month off, we’re finally back in action this weekend with UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Imavov! The opening event of 2023 has already seen some turmoil, with Kelvin Gastelum dropping out due to an injury sustained in sparring. But Sean Strickland came to save the day, accepting the fight on very short notice and making this event even more interesting!
We’ve got 5 fights on the main card, and I will now go through each one, give my thoughts on the outcome and most importantly, give you the best value bet for each bout.
The main card is expected to start at 7:15 p.m. ET so let’s dive in and cash some winners!
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov Main Card Odds
UFC Fight Night Best Strickland vs Imavov Bets & Analysis
UFC Main Card Best Bets
- Imavov to Win (-110)
- Ige to Win (-120)
- Soriano by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+160)
- Pennington to Win (+102)
- Nurmagomedov by Decision (-164)
UFC Fight Night Strickland vs Imavov Picks
- Catchweight Bout (205)
- Sean Strickland -106 vs Nassourdine Imavov -110
- Over 4.5 (+105) Under 4.5 (-123)
Sean Strickland will be headlining his second event in a row after facing Jared Cannonier in the final event of 2022. I wasn’t impressed by his performance in that one and neither were the judges, giving the split decision win to Cannonier after 5 rounds. Sean is now hoping to bounce back against the 12th-ranked fighter in the Middleweight division in Nassourdine Imavov. But short-notice fights are never easy, and I have some concerns about how ready he will be for this one. We all know he doesn’t do a ‘Paddy’ after his fights, as he generally stays in shape and goes hard in sparring, so he won't be slugging around the octagon. He has a good gas tank and solid striking, but I’m not sure he can get it done in this one without a full camp against this opponent.
Nassourdine Imavov, on the other hand, has been in the lab preparing for the very durable and dangerous Kelvin Gastelum these last few weeks. He is on a 3-fight winning streak and coming off a unanimous decision victory over Joaquin Buckley in September. The one thing that separates him from Strickland is his footwork and movement. He doesn’t stay in the pocket too long, but prefers to do his damage quickly and get right out. This is why he only absorbs 2.43 strikes per minute compared to Sean’s 4.18. He has a key advantage in the striking department, and I don’t see this fight spending too much time on the ground, so I’m trusting Imavov to get the win here.
Best Bet: Nassourdine Imavov Moneyline (-110)
UFC Fight Night Dan Ige vs Damon Jackson Picks
- Featherweight bout
- Dan Ige (-120) vs Damon Jackson (+105)
- Over 2.5 (-159) Under 2.5 (+136)
The co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Imavov will feature a featherweight bout between Dan ‘50K’ Ige and Damon ‘Action’ Jackson. Dan Ige is now ranked 13th in the division, having lost his last 3 bouts against the Korean Zombie, Josh Emmet and Movsar Evloev. That said, this was some very tough competition and he held his own against Jung and Emmet, whilst Elvloev got 9 takedowns and 6:47 minutes of control.
Damon Jackson is making a surge in the UFC right now and is making the3 most out of his second stint. He was out of the promotion for about 4 years, but since rejoining in September 2020, he has amassed a 5-1 record and is currently on a 4-fight winning streak. However, the quality of his striking still isn’t the best and he hasn’t exactly faced the top guys in the division. With 3 career KO losses so far, Jackson doesn’t have the best chin, whilst Dan Ige has proven multiple times that he can take a punch.
In my mind, all Ige has to do in order to win is keep the fight standing up. Despite having a 51% takedown defence, his stats are skewed by the Evloev and Sung Jung fights, and he should be able to stuff any takedown attempt in this one. Jackson is the taller fighter, but Ige has more power in his hands. Illia Topuria beat Jackson by KO 2 years ago, and I think Dan Ige can do the same. You can back him to finish the fight early at +225 odds, but I’m going down the safer route this time with the moneyline.
Best Bet: Dan Ige Moneyline (-120)
UFC Fight Night Punahele Soriano vs Roman Kopylov Picks
- Middleweight Bout
- Punahele Soriano (-149) vs Roman Kopylov (+130)
- Over 2.5 (+120) Under 2.5 (-141)
Up next we have a bout in the Middleweight division between two fighters who bounced back nicely in 2022. Both lost their previous 2 bouts but won their most recent one by KO. Soriano is known for being a wrestler, but his striking has also been impressive, finishing 6 of his 9 wins by KO/TKO. Power is his biggest weapon, but he tends to throw a lot of looping shots, which leaves the danger of him gassing out.
Roman Kopylov’s UFC debut wasn’t the best, getting rocked by Karl Roberson and getting finished by RNC in round 3. He got clipped again against Duraev and lost by unanimous decision. However, we saw a glimpse of his actual abilities against Alessio di Chirico in July, where he showed his speed, takedown defence and striking prowess.
For this one, it all depends on whether you think Kopylov’s chin will be able to withstand the power shots of Soriano. I don’t. He’s a great fighter and his speed will be difficult to deal with, but Soriano is a southpaw and he will be able to catch those body kicks, just like he did against Dalcha Lungiambula. I’m willing to take a risk here and say Soriano will get the finish.
Best Bet: Soriano by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+160)
UFC Fight Night Ketlen Vieira vs Raquel Pennington Picks
- Women Bantamweight bout
- Ketlen Vieira (-125) vs Raquel Pennington (+102)
- Over 2.5 (-370) Under 2.5 (+280)
The MMA community is probably the most disagreeable place in the world, but I think we can all agree that this fight is going to go the distance. Ketlen Vieira used to be able to finish fights early, but she hasn’t done so in years, with 5 of her last 6 fights going to a decision. She is currently 2nd in the Bantamweight decision hoping for a title shot if she gets the job done here. But her success will rely on her ability to get takedowns tonight.
But Raquel Pennington isn’t easy to take down, and she has the striking advantage. She is on a 4-fight winning streak and coming off a decision win against Aspen Ladd. Her takedown defence is at 63% and she only absorbs 3.28 strikes per minute, compared to Vieira’s 4.03. Pennington is a great decision fighter who does a very good job of walking you down, putting her head down and dealing some damage at close range.
I know most people are backing Ketlen to get it done here, but I expect a much closer fight. On paper, Vieira is the more dangerous to finish the fight early, but we haven’t seen her do this in years and I don’t think we can expect that this Saturday. Pennington is very good at making herself look good in fights that go the distance, and I see some solid value in backing her in this one.
Best Bet: Raquel Pennington Moneyline (+102)
UFC Fight Night Umar Nurmagomedov vs Raoni Barcelos Picks
- Bantamweight bout
- Umar Nurmagomedov (-1000) vs Raoni Barcelos (+650)
- Over (-233) Under 2.5 (+200)
Unfortunately, Umar Nurmagomedov is likely going to win. I say this only because the odds are so skewed that there is no value in backing him. Still, Raoni Barcelos hasn’t shown enough recently for me to see any value here, even at these odds. Yes, he looked good in his most recent bout against Trevin Jones, but this is a fighter who has won just 1 of his 4 UFC fights.
There is some danger here. Urmagomedov is a dangerous grappler and he doesn’t take damage, absorbing just 0.37 strikes per minute whilst getting 5.02 takedowns per 15. Barcelos is a solid grappler in his own right, but he simply hasn’t been at 100% recently. He turns 36 in May and I don’t see him bouncing back right now, especially not against someone who is just now making his way up the division rankings and looking to make the top 10. Out of respect to Barcelos’ grappling skills, I won’t be backing Nurmagomedov to get the submission, but a unanimous decision seems like the most likely outcome.
Best Bet: Nurmagomedov to Win by Decision/Technical Decision (-164)
Be sure to follow Milan Stanojic on Twitter @mstanojicb
