UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill Picks, Predictions, Odds
The former UFC Light-Heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira makes his way back to the octagon this Saturday night in the main event of UFC 283 hoping to win back the gold 7 months after losing it to Jiri Prochazka.
The co-main event will feature a Flyweight title fight between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno for the 4th time! We’ve got 3 more fights on the main card, and I’ll be going through each of them and finding the best value bets!
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill Betting Odds
UFC 283 Main Card Best Bets
- Glover Teixeira Moneyline (+118)
- Brandon Moreno Moneyline (-110)
- Gilbert Burns to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+350)
- Gilbert Burns by Submission (+230)
- Jessica Andrade by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+120)
- Johnny Walker Moneyline (-182)
UFC 283 Picks & Predictions
The UFC 283 main card is expected to start at 10:00 p.m. ET with the first of five bouts.
UFC 283 Teixeira vs Hill Picks
Glover Teixeira is coming into this fight as a +118 underdog, but considering his resume, skill set and the fact is the former champ - this was very unexpected. At 43 years of age, Teixeira is currently the number one contender for the title and with an MMA record of 33 wins and 8 losses, he is one of the last remaining veterans in the game. He was on an 8-fight winning streak before narrowly losing the title to Jiri Prochazka - a fight he was objectively winning before getting submitted in the 12th hour. He is a solid striker with a granite chin with exceptional offensive grappling - a weapon I can easily see winning him this fight.
For Jamahal Hill, an unexpected title fight at the back of his a 3-fight winning streak. He finished each one by KO/TKO against Jimmy Crute, Johnny Walker and Thiago Santos. But the 7th-ranked fighter in the division still has a long way to go before being able to win UFC gold. As good as his striking has been, winning 7 of his 11 MMA fights via KO/TKO, his grappling is simply not nearly good enough to contend with the best. Teixeira is an elite grappler and seeing as how both Darko Stosic and Thiago Santos were able to land 6 takedowns on him respectively, I don’t see how he is going to stop Teixeira.
Hill is younger, has the reach advantage and arguably has more power behind his shots. That said, Glover has a granite chin, and even when he does get rocked, he does an excellent job of using his grappling to recover and get into favorable positions. This all comes down to if you believe Hill will be able to knock Teixeira out early in the fight. I don’t, and I have no problem backing Glover in the moneyline as an underdog. We’re going to see a lot of takedowns for Glover, followed by his dangerous ground-and-pound and maybe even a rear-naked choke. Even if he doesn't get the submission, he will be able to convince the judges to give him a unanimous decision.
Best Bet: Glover Teixeira Moneyline (+118)
UFC 283 Figueiredo vs Moreno Picks
The year is 2050 and we are watching UFC 600 where Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno will be facing each other for the 100th time for the Flyweight title. Not quite, but this is the 4th time these two will be facing each other, and don’t be surprised if it happens again. The Flyweight title is on the line as the division champ Deiveveson Figueiredo will attempt to defend against the interim and former division champion Brandon Moreno.
1 draw, 1 submission win for Moreno and 1 unanimous decision for Figueiredo is what we have seen so far, and for the 4th one… who knows? You can never really tell with these two, as there is very little separating them. Moreno is the more technical striker, but Figgy has a lot more power behind his shots. Both have a solid grappling background, but Moreno was able to get a rear-naked choke in the 3rd round in their second bout. Let’s face it, nobody can really say what’s going to happen this Saturday and who is going to be holding that belt, but based on what we have seen, I’m giving a microscopic edge to Brandon Moreno.
If we get the best version of both of these fighters in their prime, Moreno is only slightly getting my favor, and that’s because of his exceptional cardio, durability and strategic striking. We didn’t really get to see his best version last time out, which is why the decision went in Figueiredo's favor.
However, Figueiredo is 35 now, and Moreno is just entering his prime at the age of 29. Figgy relies a lot on his power shots to hurt opponents and if he can’t put them away, he struggles with his cardio. He hasn’t been able to put away Moreno so far, and that outcome is looking very unlikely now. What’s more, Figueiredo’s striking defence hasn’t been the best, absorbing an average of 3.53 strikes per minute, and with the amount of weight he cuts each fight, this can an issue. I expect to see something similar to their 2nd fight where Moreno used his striking advantage and ultimately grappling to get the job done. That said, I’m still backing him in the moneyline as the odds are still quite solid.
Best Bet: Brandon Moreno Moneyline (-110)
UFC 283 Burns vs Magny Picks
Gilbert Burns welcomes us to his backyard this Saturday where he will attempt to put his name back into the hat among the title contenders in the Welterweight division. He attempted to put the belt around his waist 2 years ago in a bout against Kamaru Usman but was TKOed in the 3rd round with a straight right hand followed by some ground & pound. He is coming off a decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev after a razor-close fight, but ‘Durinho’ hasn’t lost any stock in that one and is still considered a very dangerous opponent.
For, Neil Magny, the 12th-ranked fighter in the division, this is the perfect opportunity to climb the rankings if he can just defeat one of the top dogs. But how likely is this? It seems that whenever he gets to fight tougher competition it doesn’t end up well. Losses to RDA, Santiago Ponzinibbio, Michael Chiesa and most recently Shavkat Rakhmonov say a lot.
He does have a reach advantage in this fight and he is facing an opponent that has struggled against straight 1-2 combinations. But just 7 of his 27 wins have come via TKO, and I don’t think he has enough power in those hands to put away Burns. In fact, Durinho is the better finisher here, and he fares best in 3-round bouts, where he can go all out and not have to worry too much about his cardio.
Ultimately, you can take the safe route with ‘Fight to go the Distance: No’ at -120 odds. That way, you’ll be covered if either one of them gets the finish. However, Burns is by far the better grappler and has more knockout power, so I trust him a lot more to get the job done against an opponent with 2 KO/TKO and 5 submission losses. I have 2 bets here, so make sure to split your stakes.
Best Bet: Gilbert Burns to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+350)
Best Bet: Gilbert Burns by Submission (+230)
UFC 283 Murphy vs Andrade Picks
There’s always that one fight I dread covering just because the odds simply don’t make it worth our time to back the favorite - who is definitely going to win.
The 39-year-old Lauren Murphy bounced back nicely after her TKO loss to Valentina Shevchenko with a decision win over the former champion Miesha Tate this summer. Murphy likes to use her striking volume, mixed in with some takedowns here and there to grind out decision victories. She did get some TKOes early in her career but since joining the UFC in 2014, this has only happened twice. She will have a significant reach advantage in this one against a much shorter opponent, however…
Jessica Andrade is a pitbull. She is one of the most violent performers in the UFC and despite her smaller frame, she more than makes up for it with her speed, power and mentality. She dishes out 6.16 strikes per minute and she enjoys putting away opponents both with her striking and using submissions. She is on a 2-fight winning streak and coming off an impressive submission win against Amanda Lemos. Her gas tank is huge and she has more than enough to win this one. But the bookmakers have her at just -500 to win here, and it’s just not worth it. We are going to have to be more specific once again.
It all comes down to the manner in which expect Jessica Andrade to win here. Can she get a KO or submission? Of course! Murphy isn’t an easy fighter to put away, but with the absolute bombs Andrade throws along with her grappling, we can trust her to get it done.
Best Bet: Jessica Andrade by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+120)
UFC 283 Craig vs. Walker Picks
The 9th-ranked fighter in the Light-Heavyweight division Paul Craig will attempt to bounce back this Saturday against the 12th guy in the rankings - Johnny Walker.
There isn't that much to say about these two fighters, to be perfectly honest. We know how good Craig’s grappling is, with 13 career submission victories under his belt. But he also absorbs 2.72 strikes per minute and doesn’t really have the knockout power to knock out the top guys. He struggles to keep up when he can’t get takedowns, which we saw against Volkan Oezdemir where he went 0/15 on takedowns and lost via unanimous decision.
Johnny Walker, on the other hand, is the complete opposite. He is known as a very explosive striker, who lands 3.26 strikes per minute and can knock anyone’s lights out. He has 15 career TKO/KO wins under his name and focuses a lot of his attention on headhunting. He uses his footwork well to avoid takedowns, and I can see a very clear path to victory here. Yes, his chin has been an issue recently, but against a grappling-heavy opponent like Paul Craig, it doesn’t need to be. Walker can do a lot more from range and in those in-between situations, which is why I have no problem backing him to win this one.
Best Bet: Johnny Walker Moneyline (-182)
Be sure to follow Milan Stanojic on Twitter @mstanojicb
UFC 283 Betting Odds
UFC 283 Main Card Odds
Glover Teixeira +104 Jamahal Hill -132
Deiveson Figueiredo -113 Brandon Moreno -113
Gilbert Burns -390 Neil Magny +280
Lauren Murphy +360 Jessica Andrade -530
Paul Craig +162 Jonny Walker -210
UFC 283 Preliminary Card Odds
Mauricio Rua +180 Ihor Potieria -235
Brunno Ferreira +260 Gregory Rodrigues -360
Shamil Abdurakhimov +560 Jailton Almeida -1000
Gabriel Bonfim -196 Mounir Lazzez +152
UFC 283 Early Preliminary Card Odds
Luan Lacerda +265 Cody Stamann -370
Ismael Bonfim -113 Terrance McKinney -113
Warlley Alves +102 Nicolas Dalby -130
Josiane Nunes -370 Zarah Fairn +265
Saimon Oliveira -180 Daniel Marcos +140
