UFC Fight Night Yan vs Dvalishvili Picks, Predictions, Odds
Be sure to follow Milan Stanojic on Twitter @mstanojicb
After watching a great UFC 285 card last weekend, many would believe the UFC promotion would slow down the following week but that's not the case. The action gets even better with UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili, featuring a great UFC Bantamweight bout between former champion Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili.
The entire card at the The Theater at Virgin Hotels from Las Vegas, Nevada is expected to have 14 fights on tap. The action is expected to begin with the preliminary matches at 3:00 p.m. ET before the main card starting at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Listed below are my UFC Fight Night: Yan vs Dvalishvili Picks, Predictions and Best Bets.
Let's get it on!
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs Dvalishvili Best Bets
- Petr Yan to Win (-280)
- Alexander Volkov to Win (+130)
- Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+190)
- Vitor Petrino to Win (-106)
- Tony Gravely to Win (+126)
UFC Fight Night Predictions
The UFC Fight Night main card is expected to start at 6:00 p.m. ET.
UFC Fight Night Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Picks
It’s been a difficult 2022 for Petr ‘No Mercy’ Yan, losing both of his fights and even considering retirement at one point. Following that unfortunate loss to Sterling due to an illegal knee, Yan bounced back with a decision win against Cory Sandhagen. But when the time finally came to win back the Bantamweight title against Aljamain Sterling - Yan lost. It was definitely a close fight, but the refs gave the nod to the defending champ via split decision. He is now coming off his second split decision loss in a row, this time against Sean O’Malley and is desperate to bounce back.
Merab Dvalishvili is on an 8-fight winning streak and coming off a unanimous decision victory over the GOAT of the division - Jose Aldo. He is now 3rd in the Bantamweight rankings and hoping to work toward a title shot by beating the 2nd-ranked Yan. He was powerless to get Aldo to the ground, going 0/16 on takedowns, but still managed to get the job done, out-striking his opponent by 57-38 in significant strikes.
When it comes to how these two guys compare, I’m giving the advantage o Yan. He has faced 2 questionable losses in a row and I reckon he is eager to come back here and finish strong. He is by far the better striker, and his takedown defense is at 90% which will be a very difficult obstacle for Dvalishvili. Merab is a terrific wrestler, landing 6.54 takedowns per 15 and his striking isn’t terrible either. Although Yan’s offensive grappling isn’t the best, his defense should be good enough to keep the fight standing, and I’m giving Yan the edge. There is some value in backing Merab given the odds, but I’m picking Petr Yan to bounce back here and get the job done.
Best Bet: Petr Yan -280
UFC Fight Night Alexander Volkov vs. Alexander Romanov Picks
Funnily enough, I was already getting ready to tell you that Volkov is going to win this one, but when I saw the +130 odds at FanDuel, it was a no-brainer. This is definitely a stylistic match-up, with Volkov who is an excellent striker in the heavyweight division. He is 34 years old and has a lot of experience under his belt, fighting and sometimes losing against the best fighter the division has to offer. He is coming off a TKO win against Jairzinho Rozenstruik in June last year. He is 3-2 over his last 5 but those two losses have come to Ciryl Gane and Tom Aspinall.
For Alexander Romanov, the 32-year-old bulldozer out of Moldova, this is a chance to bounce back against the 8th-ranked guy in the division. He was on a 5-fight winning streak until his bout against Marcin Tybura in August last year, where the Polish fighter was able to get the majority decision victory. Romanov is very explosive, dangerous and a huge submission threat… in the first round. His cardio, however, is very shaky and he drops off as the fight goes on. He averages 5.18 takedowns per 15, but he hasn’t exactly faced
the top fighters the division has to offer.
The betting value is definitely with Volkov in this one. He has a 5-each height and reach advantage, he is difficult to take down and he has a lot of knockout power. Romanov will be very dangerous in the first round, but if Volkov can just stuff those early takedowns, Romanov’s cardio will start to become a huge problem and we will see the quality discrepancy between these two fighters. I’m backing the dog in this one.
Best Bet: Alexander Volkov +130
UFC Fight Night Said Nurmagomedov vs. Jonathan Martinez Picks
We’re back among the Bantamweights again with Said Nurmagomedov taking on Jonathan Martinez. Nurmagomedov is now on a 4-fight winning streak having defeated Saidyokub Kakhramonov in December by submission. He didn’t waste much time and is now back again to face a promising young fighter in Martinez out of LA.
Since joining the UFC in 2018, Nurmagomedov has fought 7 times and holds a 6-1 record. 4 of those wins were finishes, and the one loss came against Raoni Barcelos 4 years ago, who was in the best form of his career at the time. Nurmmagomedov is s solid striker who uses leg and body kicks often, but he is also a submission threat. He has proven himself as a very well-rounded fighter against solid competition and there is a reason why he is available at -250 odds to win.
Jonathan Martinez is 8-3 since joining the UFC back in 2018 and is coming off a TKO win against Cub Swanson. The UFC has been very good to the young fighter, and he is now getting a big step up in competition. Despite landing almost 5.00 strikes per minute, he still absorbs 3.88 and that’s against lesser competition.
I don’t think we will see a lot of grappling here. Both fighters prefer to keep the fight standing up and this is where Nurmagomedov has an advantage. He is a terrific athlete, has a lot of power behind his kicks and has never been finished in his MMA career. I don’t think Martinez is at the same level as his opponent tonight and t wouldn’t surprise me if we see him get KOed or submitted.
Best Bet: Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+190)
UFC Fight Night Vitor Petrino vs. Anton Turkalj Picks
Another stylistic match-up here on the main card, and the bookmakers have this one at even money. The line has started to move in favor of Petrino, but we can still find him at -106 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
We have two very exciting young fighters here, 25 and 26 years of age respectively and both will likely have a bright future in the UFC. Petrino is a lethal striker, with 5 of his 7 wins coming via KO/TKO. He made his way into the UFC through DWCS in September against Rodolfo Bellato and wouldn’t you know it, he finished the fight in the second round by TKO. His takedown defense has looked good so far and given he is the shorter fighter in this one, this should give him an advantage when stuffing takedowns.
For Turkalj, not the perfect UFC debut last time out, especially for a fighter known for ragdolling opponents on the mat. He faced Jailton Almeida and got completely outclassed, with his opponent landing 3/3 takedowns and controlling most of the fight. Tirkalj only managed to land 1 significant strike. Petrino is a much better type of opponent for him and will definitely be interesting to see if he can implement his grappling. He is at a major disadvantage in the striking department though, and if he is unable to get those takedowns early on, the fight could get very ugly. I see some value in backing Petrino to keep the fight standing and go on to win.
Best Bet: Vitor Petrino -106
UFC Fight Night Tony Gravely vs. Victor Henry Picks
We’re dropping all the way down to the prelims in our pursuit for betting value, in the Bantamweight clash between Tony Gravely and Victor Henry.
The bookmakers have Henry as a slight favorite to win at -139 whilst Gravely is available at +125. I have to be honest, I like the underdog pick very much here, and it’s not just because of the odds. Tony Gravely is a very well-rounded fighter who has been with the UFC since 2019. Despite coming off a decision loss against a very good fighter in Javid Basharat, Gravely is still a very dangerous dog here. He will have a disadvantage standing up, but his 5.83 takedowns per 15 will be a useful weapon.
Henry, the 35-year-old fighter out of California finally got a chance in the UFC last year against Raoni Barcelos and won via decision. However, in his second fight, Raphael Assuncao got him to the mat twice and was able to control the majority of the fight. Henry is dangerous on the feet, dishing out 7.87 strikes per minute, but he’s also a standing target, absorbing 6.47 strikes per minute. He is the better striker in this match-up, but I just see Gravely as the better pick due to him being more well-rounded.
Best Bet: Tony Gravely +126
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili Best Bets
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili Odds
UFC Fight Night Main Card Odds
Petr Yan -280 vs. Merab Dvalishvili +220
Nikita Krylov -172 vs. Ryan Spann +140
Alexander Volkov +130 vs. Alexander Romanov -160
Ricardo Ramos -480 vs. Austin Lingo +350
Said Nurmagomedov -260 vs. Jonathan Martinez +205
Vitor Petrino -106 vs. Anton Turkalj -114
UFC Fight Night Preliminary Card Odds
Karl Williams -225 vs. Lukasz Brzeski +180
Sedriques Dumas -215 vs. Josh Fremd +172
Raphael Assuncao +120 vs. Davey Grant -148
Mario Bautista -1200 vs. Guido Cannetti +680
Ariane Lipski +300 vs. JJ Aldrich -400
Victor Henry -154 vs. Tony Gravely +126
Tyon Nam +160 vs. Bruno Gustavo da Silva -200
Carlston Harris -300 vs. Jared Gooden +240
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili Betting Trends
As of Friday morning, BetMGM is providing bettors with the opening and current odds, plus the betting and handle percentages for the UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili main card bouts.
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili Betting Resources
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili Odds
Date: Saturday, March 11, 2023
Fights: 14
Network-Time: ESPN+, ESPN, PPV, 3:00 p.m. ET
Venue: The Theater at Virgin Hotels
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
