UFC 300 Odds, Betting Trends: Pereira vs Hill, Everything You Need To Know

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

UFC 300 odds mark a milestone for the mixed martial arts organization. Saturday night's 13-bout card in Las Vegas is loaded with good matchups.

Leading the way: Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill, with Pereira putting his light heavyweight title on the line against the No. 1 contender. And the co-main of champion Zhang Weili vs Yan Xiaonan is historic, as two Chinese fighters battle for the women's strawweight belt.

Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 UFC odds market: action, movement and betting trends on the top main-card fights. Check back regularly for updates, as bookmakers provide their insights on odds for UFC 300. And if you're betting on UFC in North Carolina, register now, as all the top North Carolina sportsbooks are live.

UFC 300 Odds

Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill Odds

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: In the main event, The SuperBook opened at Pereira -130/Hill +110. Two weeks ago, the price stretched to Pereira -140/Hill +120. But this week, it got pulled back to -Pereira -120/Hill even money.

As the main event approaches, Pereira is at -135 to Hill's +115.

"We took some sharp action on Hill earlier this week," SuperBook risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. "But there are more tickets and money on the favorite. Tickets are 2/1 in favor of Pereira. The public is on the favorite.

"There are also a lot more parlay tickets to the favorite. That's the big discrepancy. We're definitely gonna be rooting for the 'dog in the main event."

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET SATURDAY: An hour before the five-bout main card begins, DraftKings Sportsbook has moneyline at Pereira -135/Hill +114. Action in this UFC 300 odds market is definitely tilted toward the favorite. Pereira is seeing 71% of bets/86% of money.

Earlier today, DraftKings also sent out numbers on method of victory. Pereira by knockout/technical knockout/disqualification was seeing 62% of bets/61% of money. Hill by KO/TKO/DQ was second in method of victory, at 29% of bets/25% of money.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Pereira (9-2-0) is coming off a second-round technical knockout of Jiri Prochazka. The light heavyweight title bout was the main event in UFC 295 at Madison Square Garden.

Hill (12-1-0) enters on a four-fight win streak, but this is his first fight since UFC 283, on Jan. 21, 2023. On that night, Hill won the light heavyweight title by unanimous decision against Glover Texeira. But he tore an Achilles tendon in July and had to vacate the title.

Pereira vs. Hill opened at Pereira -155/Hill +135 on Feb. 18. It's now at Pereira -130/Hill +110, with plenty of jockeying around the past seven weeks.

"A lot of two-way action," MMA oddsmaker and UFC betting analyst Nick Kalikas said. "The public is betting Pereira, moving the number up. But as soon as it goes up 10 cents or so, the sharp bets come in on Hill.

"It's looking like a Pros vs. Joes fight. Pereira is more of a household name, so that attracts more public money. Hill opened as a bigger underdog, and there was sharp action early on Hill."

Kalikas is leaning toward the underdog in the main event on the UFC 300 odds board.

"I like Hill. I think the sharps are right. It's a striker vs. striker matchup, and both of them have nasty knockout power," Kalikas said. "I'm gonna go with the more durable fighter. It's a 'dog-or-pass situation. I wouldn't want to lay chalk in this spot."

And with that nasty knockout power, Kalikas doesn't foresee a five-round bout.

"I doubt it goes to scorecards. If it does, that means it'll be a pretty fun fight," he said.

Zhang Weili vs Yan Xiaonan Odds

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: As the five-bout main card draws closer to the co-main, Zhang is a -500 favorite in odds for UFC 300 at The SuperBook. Yan is a +375 underdog, for a fight that opened at Zhang -350/Yan +275.

"More tickets and money on the 'dog on straight bets, which isn't really shocking. No one wants to lay five dollars," SuperBook risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. "Tickets are about 2/1 in favor of Yan. A lot of smaller bets, though, not a huge liability.

"There are a lot more parlay tickets going to Zhang, but not a ton of money there, either."

However, whether it's Gaethje, Zhang or Pereira, The SuperBook needs a favorite to take it on the chin tonight, due to parlays.

"In the last three fights, we'll need one of those underdogs to win," Degnon said.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET SATURDAY: With the co-main still a couple hours or so out, Zhang is a hefty -520 favorite in odds for UFC 300 at DraftKings. Correspondingly, Yan is +390 underdog.

Even at the heavy price, reigning champion Zhang is attracting 91% of bets/66% of money. In the method of victory market, 39% of bets are on Zhang by decision. But the most money is on Zhang by submission, at 29%.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET FRIDAY: After losing a five-round split decision to Rose Namajunas in UFC 268, Zhang bounced back to win her next three fights. At UFC 292 in August, Zhang (24-3-0) earned a unanimous decision over Amanda Lemos to retain her strawweight title.

Yan (17-3-0) is the No. 1 contender after winning her last two fights. In her last fight, Yan made quick work of Jessica Andrade at UFC 288 last May. Yan won by knockout just 2:20 into the first round.

However, Yan is a huge underdog Saturday night. Countrywoman Zhang opened -310, with Yan at +260, and the odds ballooned to Zhang -510/Yan +385. It's currently Zhang -485/Yan +385 in the UFC 300 odds market.

"This is the first all-China title fight," Kalikas said. "Zhang is a household name. She's fought really good competition. She's the public side of this matchup.

"But Yan is sneaky good. She's being severely underrated here."

The key for Yan is keeping this fight off the ground, where Zhang is dominant.

"It all comes down to if Zhang can get takedowns. If she does, it'll look like the fight was priced right. If she doesn't, it'll look like the price was wrong," Kalikas said. "If Yan can keep the fight on feet, she has a legit chance to pull the upset. But that's easier said than done."

Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway Odds

UPDATE 10:45 P.M. ET FRIDAY: With the middle fight of the five-bout main card coming up, The SuperBook is at Gaethje -170/Holloway +145 on the UFC 300 odds board. Gaethje opened a healthy -230 chalk in March, with Holloway +185.

But those odds were bet down to -150/+130 this week, before a rebound to the current prices.

"Sharp money on Holloway early, then buyback on Gaethje," SuperBook risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. "Tickets are now about even on straight bets. But there's a lot more money on Gaethje. And a lot more parlays are tied to Gaethje. So we're gonna need Holloway."

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET FRIDAY: These two are both ranked as No. 2 in the lightweight division. Justin Gaethje (26-4-0) last fought July 29, headlining UFC 291 vs. Dustin Poirier. Gaethje knocked out Poirier one minute into the second round.

Max Holloway (25-7-0) was in the Aug. 26 UFC Fight Night main event against Chan Sung Jung. Holloway won by knockout 23 seconds into the third round.

Gaethje vs. Holloway opened at Gaethje -140/Holloway +120 and is now Gaethje -155/Holloway +135 in odds for UFC 300.

"Early action came in on Gaethje, pushing him up to around -200," Kalikas said. "Holloway got as high as +180. Then sharps started pouncing with buyback on the other side, flooding in on Holloway. There's way more money on Holloway."

Kalikas could make a case for either side in this fight, but he'd pick the chalk if necessary.

"Holloway wins a popularity contest. This is the rare combo where you see sharps and the public agreeing on the side," he said. "I lean the other way. Holloway is moving up from 145 pounds to 155 pounds. Those 155-pound guys hit a little bit harder.

"Holloway's legacy is made. He's one of the greatest as a fighter. But he doesn't have the knockout power that Gaethje does. I think Gaethje will be effective when he lands. He could win by knockout."

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson