College Football Playoff Odds: Expansion Will Impact Betting Strategy

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

College Football Playoff odds have been on the board and taking money for months. But expansion this season from four to 12 teams could make it worthwhile to keep your powder dry for now.

In fact, you might be far better off waiting until December to bet on odds to win the College Football Playoff. The Dec. 8 bracket release could reveal a couple of good opportunities, according to Brett McMurphy, college football insider for The Action Network.

McMurphy outlines an interesting strategy in 2024-25 College Football Playoff odds. And if you're looking to get involved in that market, make sure to use our BetMGM bonus code to get the most out of your action.

2024-25 College Football Playoff Odds

Seeding Is Not Believing

A quick glance at national title odds reveals one certainty: The Southeastern Conference and the Big Ten are expected to fill a significant chunk of the 12 available playoff slots.

BetMGM has Georgia as the +300 favorite to win the championship, just ahead of Ohio State at +325. Those two are followed by Texas (+775), Oregon (+800), Alabama and Ole Miss (both +1500), LSU (+1700) and Penn State (+2000).

So the top eight teams on the College Football Playoff odds board hail from either the SEC or Big Ten. Yes, Oregon in the Big Ten and Texas in the SEC will take a little getting used to, but that is indeed the case.

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When the CFP bracket is released Dec. 8, seeds 1-4 will go to the winners of the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. Those four teams get first-round byes. From there, the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champ is in, along with the seven highest-ranked teams remaining.

"When the bracket comes out and you see all the odds to win the playoff, I don't think those odds are gonna correlate with the seedings," McMurphy said during a college football preview panel at Bet Bash, a sports betting conference in Las Vegas. "I think the SEC and Big Ten runner-up will be the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds. Those two teams will then be prohibitive favorites to win their first-round games."

Taking a Semi-Flier

McMurphy presumes, understandably so, that the Nos. 5 and 6 seeds should go unscathed in the first round.

"The next round, when they play the No. 3 or 4 seed, they will likely be the favorite again."

To paraphrase for clarity: McMurphy forecasts the SEC and Big Ten champions as the Nos. 1-2 seeds, and the Big 12 and ACC champs at Nos. 3-4. And he believes that in the quarterfinals, the SEC and Big Ten runners-up will be favored over the Big 12 and ACC champs.

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"Then in the semifinals, the Nos. 5 and 6 seeds could be in a rematch with the team they lost to in the conference championship game," McMurphy said. "So you get that theory of, 'It's hard to beat a team twice in a season,' and it's hard beat a team twice in four weeks."

From those potential first-round and quarterfinal results comes this:

"If you like the SEC or Big Ten runner-up, then you should take a flier on them to win the College Football Playoff. Because those teams should get to the semifinals," McMurphy said.

One Step Further

There's one more interesting possibility with the Nos. 5 and 6 seeds. But it doesn't change McMurphy's opinion on how to proceed in betting on odds to win the College Football Playoff.

"What if the 5 or 6 seed is from the SEC and is not the conference runner-up?" McMurphy asked.

It could happen. Let's say Georgia and Texas meet in the SEC Championship Game, and the Bulldogs roll to a 35-14 win. The Longhorns would still be in the CFP, but their stock could fall below the No. 5 or 6 seed.

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From there, perhaps Ole Miss or Alabama takes either the 5 or 6 seed – despite not having played on conference championship weekend.

"You literally would have an extra week of rest compared with anybody you face in the playoff," McMurphy said.

An extra week to prepare and, perhaps more importantly, get healthy could be big at that time of year.

Texas Two-Loss

As noted above, Texas is the third choice in BetMGM's College Football Playoff odds market. So at the moment, bookmakers expect the Longhorns to play meaningful games well into December, at least.

But Texas could also be a two-loss team heading into the CFP. The Longhorns travel to Michigan in Week 2 and host Georgia in Week 8. Plus, with Oklahoma joining Texas in moving to the SEC, the Red River Rivalry remains on the Longhorns' schedule, in Week 7.

And since Texas and Texas A&M are now both in the SEC, that rivalry gets renewed on the final weekend of the regular season.

All of which makes the Longhorns' season win total quite interesting to McMurphy.

"Texas' Over/Under is 10.5. My God, I can't take Under 10.5 enough," he said.

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson