2021 British Open Prop Bets, Predictions, Odds

July 13, 2021

Matt Blunt
Golf Expert
VegasInsider.com

2021 British Open Prop Bets

Along with picking the winner for the British Open, I'm focused on four other betting markets for this week's major tournament.

Most Popular British Open Betting Resources

• British Open Betting Preview
• Open Championship - Best Bets
• British Open Betting Odds
• British Open History
• Open Championship Expert Picks

2021 British Open Best Bets

Best Bet - 72 Hole Matchup

Harris English -125 over Brian Harman -103

Odds per DraftKings - Subject to Change

Six of the past nine British Open champions had a victory in their most recent six starts leading up to the Open appearance, and English won his last time out. Coming off a win is usually a fade spot for me, but English took two full weeks off to get over here prepared. Three straight Top 15 finishes with the win is about as good as it gets for recent form, and a ranking combination of 35th and 22nd in SG: Around-the-green and putting respectively only supports any argument for English this week.

He's a guy that hasn't played this event since the 2016 version, and recent Major finishes of 4th (Sept 2020 US Open), 21st (April 2021 Masters,) 64th (2021 PGA Championship) and 3rd (2021 US Open), showing up and playing well on the biggest stage is something English is getting more comfortable.

Compared to Harman at least, a guy who's missed the cut at the Open in his last four tries and has two missed cuts mixed in with four Top 20's in his last six starts overall. I have a tough time believing Harman will end up on the Top 20 side of things with his play this week given his history overseas, even though his SG: Around-the-green and putting combination is much better at 25th and 16th.

Those numbers earned Harman a spot in this matchup, but English is the deserving favorite here and I'm backing the final leaderboard to show exactly that.

American golfer Tony Finau has played in the British Open four times and he's posted three Top-25 finishes during that span. (AP)

Best Bet – Group Betting

Group G - Tony Finau +310

• Robert Macintyre +250
• Marc Leishman +250
• Sergio Garcia +280
• Tony Finau +310

Some very good track records for everyone at past Open Championships, as Macintyre's debut in 2019 ended with a 6th place finish. Garcia and Leishman have multiple Top 6 finishes in this Major throughout the course of their careers, while Finau's only got one (3rd in 2019) but hasn't finished worse than 27th in four tries at The Open.

But it's Finau's decided edge in SG: Around-the-green (7th ranked at .439) over the others veterans – Leishman (146th ranked at -0.85), Garcia (97th ranking at 0.065) is something that should play out in Finau's favor over the course of four rounds.

Macintyre ranks 12th on the Euro Tour in SG: Around-the-green at 0.450 so it could be a head-to-head showdown with Finau in that regard, but if Finau's putter just can be average, the rest of his game should help him run away with this grouping.

Best Bet – Tournament Props

Continent of Winner: North America -110

Odds per DraftKings - Subject to Change

Jon Rahm winning the US Open last month was the first time a non-US born player had won the US Open since Martin Kaymer did it back in 2014. That year was also the last time we had a four-Major season on the PGA Tour that at least two Majors weren't won by an American, one of only four times this century that that's happened (2008, 2010, 2011).

Interestingly enough, all three of those four years saw an Irishman win The Open Championship – Padraig Harrington in 2008, Darren Clarke (at Royal St George's) in 2011, and Rory McIlroy in 2014 – and all four of them saw an Irishman claim at least one Major that season (Graeme McDowell won US Open in 2010).

Whether or not that ends up being good news for the Irish players in the field this week remains to be seen, and truth be told, I don't mind McIlroy's chances at all this week. The last Open in 2019 was the one at Royal Port Rush where the hometown pressure was enormous on McIlroy the entire week and there is going to be none of that this week for him to deal with.

But 20 full Major seasons this century and two Major wins in a season have come by an American player 80% of the time. Even though the schedule changed with the PGA Championship being played earlier in the calendar and The Open Championship being one that can really baffle many US-born players potentially complicating that 80% hit rate going forward, it's still something I've got to back here.

There are plenty of American's among the list of favorites at the top that I get a piece of with this wager, and having avoided all the top names in the outright market, it's not a bad way to take a piece of them in this tournament. History suggests there is a good chance a US-born player finds a way to get it done.

Best Bet – To Miss Cut

Padraig Harrington +116

Odds per FanDuel - Subject to Change

Don't mean to come across as disrespectful to the two-time Open champion in Harrington (2007 and 2008), but to get plus-money on him to miss the cut is something I can't pass up.

Harrington will be turning 50 at the end of August, hasn't made a cut at an Open Championship since 2016, finished 22nd at Royal St George's in 2003 and missed the cut there in 2011, and comes in having missed cuts in four of his last five starts overall.

He doesn't have that many rounds (28) graded for PGA Tour stats this year, but he's -0.154 SG: Around-the-green and -0.630 SG: Putting, ranking 167th or worse in those respective categories. Don't think there will be too many guys who hang around this week struggling in both of those statistical categories, and the 18th place finish at the Scottish Open last week, off a T4 in his last Major start this season (PGA Championship) is overselling him a little here. It was all missed cuts between those two outings for Harrington, and without the ability to lean on some sort of scrambling skill at Royal St George's, chances are those guys are going to be the ones booking early flights home.

Too many things working against Harrington in my view and I'm not sure this price accurately reflects them.

How to Bet on Golf

Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.

Golf Betting Schedule

Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.

Understanding Golf Odds and Bets

Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.

If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.

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