Masters Betting Trends & Action Report
2024 Masters Odds | Free Picks
Masters betting trends are, as Jim Nantz might say, a tradition unlike any other. Wagering on Masters odds is a rite of spring, and the perfect way to immediately emerge from the letdown of March Madness coming to a close.
Saturday saw the completion of the second round and start of the third round, but rain wrecked the afternoon. That'll make for an interesting Sunday, with Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm and upstart amateur Sam Bennett facing 30 holes. Koepka remains the favorite and in fact is now minus money as he pursues a first green jacket.
Neil Fitzroy, oddsmaker/risk manager for The SuperBook, provides insights on updated Masters odds, betting trends and action. Check back for updates right through Sunday at Augusta.
2024 Masters Odds
Still the Favorite
Koepka was one of the fortuitous golfers who completed Friday's second round before wicked weather hit. So he got to relax until Saturday afternoon – at which point he only got through six holes of the third round.
Still, that was enough to stretch his lead over Rahm from two strokes to four strokes. Koepka, who began Round 3 at 12 under, is at 13 under with a dozen holes left in the round. Rahm, 10 under after finishing his second round Saturday, fell back to 9 under.
The SuperBook now has Koepka a -125 favorite in odds to win the Masters. But Rahm is getting oddsmakers' respect, not far behind at +160. And the book needs Rahm.
"Koepka is a bad result for us in states we operate in outside of Nevada. He’s a break-even result for us in Nevada," Fitzroy said.
Koepka didn't take a ton of tickets pre-tourney, but his odds were as high as +8000 as recently as late March. Enough prescient bettors took Koepka, at odds ranging from +4000 to +8000, to create liability.
There's a steep drop-off in odds after Koepka and Rahm, with Collin Morikawa a distant +2500 third choice. Morikawa is in a four-way tie for fifth at 5 under. He's joined by Patrick Cantlay (+3500), Viktor Hovland (+3500) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000).
"I would figure at least one of Morikawa, Cantlay, Hovland or Fitzpatrick makes a run at it. All those guys are good results for us, except Morikawa," Fitzroy said.
Bennett Falls Back
Ahead of Round 3, The SuperBook risk room was sweating the improbable run of Texas A&M amateur Sam Bennett. The 23-year-old was alone in third with an 8-under 136 total, four shots behind Koepka and two behind Rahm.
But Bennett, grouped with Koepka and Rahm, bogeyed the first two holes of the third round. He's still alone in third, but at 6 under and with a host of solid players right on his heels. As such, The SuperBook has Bennett as the 100/1 co-ninth choice.
And the risk room is breathing a bit easier.
"Sam Bennett is a horrible result for us in states we operate in outside of Nevada," Fitzroy said, before noting the upside for the book. "Bennett is in the final group for Round 3. He has to stare down two major winners in Koepka and Rahm. There’s pressure on him now. Thursday and Friday, he could play more freely, without much pressure."
The SuperBook hopes that pressure hangs around. In mid-March, a bettor put $147 on Bennett at massive 5000/1 odds. That represents a potential liability of $735,000. Bennett was still 3000/1 pre-tourney, but surged all the way to 30/1 (+3000) after going 68-68 in the first two rounds.
Tiger Sticks Around
On Saturday morning, as Tiger Woods headed to the final two holes of his second round, he was at 1 over par and set to make the cut. Then he finished bogey-bogey for a 3-over 147 total and needed some help.
He got it when Justin Thomas also finished bogey-bogey to go from 2 over to 4 over and miss the cut, and when Sungjae Im bogeyed No. 7 to fall from 2 over to 3 over. That moved the cutline to 3 over, allowing Woods to make the Masters cut for the 23rd consecutive time.
It was a good sweat for bettors on both sides of the Yes/No prop of whether Woods would make the cut.
"Tiger making the cut was a small loser for us," Fitzroy said. "We opened Yes -150 and closed Yes -185."
But the first seven holes of Round 3 probably had Woods wishing he'd missed the cut. He was 6 over on the round and 9 over for the tournament – last among the 54 players who made the cut – before weather halted play for the day.
Fitzroy pointed to two more markets that have The SuperBook's attention heading to Sunday.
"We are rooting against Sam Burns top-5 and top-10 finish. And we're rooting against Morikawa top-10," Fitzroy said.
As noted above, Morikawa is in a four-way tie for fourth heading to Sunday. Burns has more work to do to cash for top-5 and top-10 bettors, as he's tied for 17th at 2 under par.
Pre-Tournament Odds & Action
Roars for Rory
Way back on April 12, 2022, just after last year's Masters, BetMGM installed Jon Rahm as the +1200 chalk in odds to win the 2023 Masters. Rahm justified that and more by posting three wins early this season, including in back-to-back starts at the Tournament of Champions and The American Express in January.
Rahm then won the Genesis Invitational in February. However, of late, McIlroy and Scheffler have been the hotter players. Scheffler won The Players Championship last month. And In the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play, which wrapped up March 26, McIlroy and Scheffler made it to the final day.
Both lost in the semis, so they went on to play each other in the third-place match, which McIlroy won. BetMGM now has McIlroy and Scheffler as the short +700 co-favorites to win the Masters, followed by Rahm at +900.
"It's probably more so that the bettors see Rory and Scottie as locked in right now. They are our two most-bet-on golfers, while Rahm is seventh," BetMGM sports trader Christian Cipollini said in relaying money count on those three players.
When these odds opened almost a year ago, McIlroy and Scheffler were the +1300 co-second choices, along with Justin Thomas. JT is now the +2000 co-sixth choice with Cameron Smith.
After the three-headed McIlroy/Scheffler/Rahm monster, it's a notable drop to BetMGM's co-fourth choice of Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay at +1800.
"Rory is a loser for us. Scottie at the moment is a small winner, but I’d imagine if he’s in the hunt on Sunday, he’d be a loser for us," Cipollini said. "Rahm is actually a good outcome right now. Same thing as Scottie, though: If Rahm is in the hunt, we will take a lot of live money."
Ticket Takers and Money Makers
Spieth actually leads the ticket count in BetMGM's Masters betting trends market. He's followed by Scheffler at No. 2 and McIlroy at No. 3. In terms of money, as Cipollini alluded to, McIlroy and Scheffler are 1-2, followed by Spieth.
Over the past month, Spieth has a third-place finish at the Valspar Championship and a fourth-place effort in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. So the players currently trending with bettors should come as no surprise.
"Recently, its been Rory, Spieth & Scottie. All three had a top-three finish in the one of the last three big PGA events," Cipollini said. "When that happens, we start taking Masters bets. We see it a lot where a player wins or plays well in a tournament a week or so before, then we start taking the Masters money."
Cipollini then broke down who's good for the bettors and who's good for the book this week at Augusta National.
"Of players that have the best shot, Spieth is the worst, Brooks Koepka is bad, and then Rory and Cam Smith would also be losers," Cipollini said, before moving on to two players who are always a liability behind the counter. "Tiger Woods, of course. The book will never be rooting for Tiger. Phil Mickelson is a problem on liability due to his 200/1 price."
Woods isn't nearly that long a shot, but he is down the Masters odds board a bit at +6600.
Flying Under the Radar
Cipollini pointed to a trio of golfers perhaps worthy of a look in the 2023 Masters betting market. A win by any of them would represent a nice little hit at the pay window.
"Min Woo Lee at 66/1 has been a popular play with some of the sharper bettors," Cipollini said of the Aussie who plays primarily on the European Tour, but last month tied for sixth at The Players Championship.
"I’m personally on Sahith Theegala at 100/1. He's always my favorite long-shot golfer. Hideki Matsuyama at 40/1 is another one I like," Cipollini said.
Theegala is having a solid season, with five top-10 finishes, including runner-up in November's RSM Classic. He's got 13 cuts made in 14 events.
Matsuyama has some good recent history at Augusta, winning the 2021 Masters, and he took fifth at The Players last month.
Top of the Props
Prop bets always get play in major golf tournaments, especially those for a certain five-time Masters champion.
"The Tiger Woods specials are always very popular. Woods to make the cut is our most-bet-on prop at the moment," Cipollini said.
Yes is running -200 on that prop, with no at +160.
And of course, the presence of LIV Tour players at Augusta leads to a natural prop.
"Any LIV golfer to win the tournament is actually really popular so far," Cipollini said.
The odds for a LIV golfer winning at Augusta are +500. Among those potentially in the mix: Smith (+2000), 2020 Masters champ Dustin Johnson (+2800) and Koepka (+3300).
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